Energy Deficit Warning: Expert Contradicts Government on Blackout Risk as Colombia Cutoff Persists

Divergent Assessments

Energy expert Marco Acuña stated on April 8, 2026 (source) that Ecuador faces a generation deficit during peak consumption periods.

Energy Minister Inés Manzano has countered that Ecuador will not experience blackouts in the near term, citing new thermal capacity and adequate reservoir levels.

Risk Factor Analysis

Risk Factor	Status	Impact
Colombia energy cutoff	Active since March 2026	Removes ~200-300 MW peak import capacity
Coca Codo Sinclair	<50% of 1,500 MW capacity	~700-800 MW structural deficit vs. design
Paute complex	Operating normally	Carries disproportionate load
Current rainfall	Favorable (rainy season)	Supports reservoir levels through May
New thermal capacity	Added since 2024 crisis	Partially offsets deficits
Dry season (Jul-Nov)	Pending	Primary risk window

Supply-Demand Balance

Ecuador's installed generation capacity is approximately 8,800 MW, but effective available capacity is significantly lower:

• Hydroelectric (~75% of generation): seasonal variation reduces output during dry months
• Coca Codo Sinclair: ~700 MW effective vs. 1,500 MW rated — a 800 MW gap
• Colombia imports: previously provided 200-300 MW during peak periods — now zero
• Peak demand: approximately 4,200-4,500 MW during evening hours

The margin between effective supply and peak demand narrows to uncomfortable levels during dry season, particularly if the Paute complex also sees reduced inflows.

2024 Precedent

The 2024 blackout crisis produced:

• 14-hour daily power cuts at the peak
• Estimated $2-3 billion in economic losses from productivity disruption
• Emergency thermal generator procurement (the Celec-Progen scandal that produced corruption charges)
• Loss of business confidence and operational disruption across all sectors

What to Watch

• Monthly reservoir level reports — particularly Mazar (Coca Codo Sinclair feeder) and Amaluza (Paute complex)
• Colombia-Ecuador trade negotiations — any resumption of energy sales would significantly reduce risk
• Thermal generation investment — track Celec procurement of additional backup capacity
• Peru interconnection — potential alternative import source; any bilateral energy agreements would be positive
• IMF review interaction — energy infrastructure investment competes with fiscal consolidation targets for budget allocation

Sources: Prensa Latina, Primicias