Government to Tender 2,100 MW Across Three Power Projects in 2026 — Including 1,500 MW Solar Mega-Plant in Zapotillo That Would Rank Among Latin America's Largest

The Three-Project Portfolio

Ecuador's Ministry of Energy and Mines announced plans to award three major power generation projects through competitive tender processes in 2026:

Project	Technology	Capacity	Location	Est. Investment	Timeline
Gas combined-cycle	Natural gas thermal	400 MW	TBD (coastal)	$400-500 million	Tender Q2 2026, operational 2028
Santa Elena solar	Photovoltaic	200 MW	Santa Elena province	$180-220 million	Tender Q2 2026, operational 2027
Zapotillo solar	Photovoltaic	1,500 MW	Zapotillo, Loja	$1.5-2.0 billion	Tender Q3 2026, phased 2028-2030
Total		2,100 MW		$2.5-3.0 billion

Zapotillo: A Latin American-Scale Solar Project

The 1,500 MW Zapotillo solar park would be one of the largest solar installations in Latin America upon completion:

Solar Project Comparison	Country	Capacity	Status
Villanueva	Mexico	893 MW	Operational
São Gonçalo	Brazil	864 MW	Operational
Janaúba	Brazil	1,200 MW	Under construction
Zapotillo (proposed)	Ecuador	1,500 MW	Tender 2026
Sol de los Andes	Chile	1,000 MW	Operational

The Zapotillo location in southern Loja province was selected for its exceptional solar irradiance — the region receives an average of 5.2 kWh/m²/day, among the highest in Ecuador, with minimal cloud cover and consistent year-round sunshine due to the dry climate of the Catamayo-Zapotillo valley.

Zapotillo Solar Site Data	Value
Solar irradiance	5.2 kWh/m²/day (average)
Annual sunshine hours	~2,400 hours
Estimated capacity factor	22-25%
Annual generation	~2,900-3,300 GWh
Land requirement	~3,000-3,500 hectares
Nearest grid connection	Loja-Cuenca 230 kV line

Strategic Context: Why Now

The three-project portfolio responds to several converging pressures:

1. The 2024 Blackout Crisis Ecuador suffered 8-14 hour daily blackouts during October-December 2024, costing the economy an estimated $2.5-3 billion. The crisis exposed the country's dangerous over-reliance on hydroelectric power, which provides 75% of generation but drops 20-30% during the dry season.

2. Colombia Energy Suspension Colombia's recent suspension of electricity exports removes approximately 500 MW of buffer capacity during peak demand periods, making domestic generation expansion urgent.

3. Growing Demand Ecuador's electricity demand is growing at approximately 3-4% annually, driven by economic recovery, urbanization, and — increasingly — electric vehicle adoption (EVs reached 22% of new vehicle sales in January 2026).

Demand Projection	2025	2026	2027	2028	2030
Peak demand (MW)	4,800	5,000	5,200	5,400	5,800
Annual consumption (GWh)	28,500	29,600	30,800	32,000	34,500
EV electricity demand	120 GWh	200 GWh	350 GWh	500 GWh	900 GWh

Generation Mix Transformation

If all three projects are completed, Ecuador's generation mix would shift significantly:

Source	2025 Share	2030 Projected Share	Change
Hydroelectric	75%	58%	-17 points
Thermal (gas)	18%	15%	-3 points
Solar	1%	18%	+17 points
Wind	1%	4%	+3 points
Other renewables	0%	2%	+2 points
Imports	5%	3%	-2 points

The solar expansion would make Ecuador's grid significantly more resilient to drought, as solar generation peaks during dry, sunny periods — precisely when hydroelectric output drops.

Financing and Investment Structure

The government expects the projects to be structured as Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) or Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) models:

Financing Structure	Gas Plant	Santa Elena Solar	Zapotillo Solar
Model	BOT/PPA	PPA	PPA
Contract term	20 years	25 years	25 years
Expected tariff	$55-65/MWh	$35-45/MWh	$30-40/MWh
Likely bidders	AES, Engie, Enel	Enel, Atlas, Solarpack	Enel, ACWA Power, TotalEnergies
Multilateral support	IDB, CAF	IDB, World Bank	IDB, IFC, Green Climate Fund

Solar PPA prices of $30-45/MWh would make new solar generation cheaper than both thermal and imported electricity, providing an economic incentive alongside the energy security rationale.

What to Watch

Track formal tender documents — publication of the request for proposals (RFP) for each project will confirm the government's commitment and timeline. Monitor pre-qualification of bidders — the identity of international developers entering the competition signals market confidence in Ecuador's regulatory framework. Watch grid infrastructure planning — the 1,500 MW Zapotillo project requires significant transmission investment to connect to Ecuador's main grid. Track environmental impact assessments — particularly for Zapotillo, where large-scale land use in the dry forest ecosystem may face environmental review. Monitor the urgent mining and energy law in the National Assembly — regulatory changes could affect project structuring and investor protections.

Sources: Primicias, BNamericas