Noboa Q1 2026 Macro Brief: Sales $63.2B (+9.4% YoY), Country Risk 416 bps, Public Investment $533M

Government-Presented Q1 2026 Indicators

From national broadcast, 17 April 2026, per El Universo and El Telégrafo (source):

Metric	Q1 2025	Q1 2026	Change
Sales (nominal, national)	$57.7B	$63.2B	+9.4%
Public investment	$42M	$533M	+1,169%
Country risk (bps)	1,908 (10 Apr 2025)	416	-1,492 bps
Construction sector growth	—	+20% YoY	—
Real estate growth	—	+17.8% YoY	—
Biess first-time mortgage rate	—	2.99%	—

Methodological Caveats

Sales data: Nominal terms (no CPI deflator applied). With Ecuador inflation at ~1-2%, real sales growth ~7-8%. Sales is also a tax-collected (SRI-derived) measure; reflects formal-economy activity, excludes ~52% informal sector.

Public investment YoY comparison: Q1 2025 baseline of $42M reflects pre-election interim period with minimal capital deployment. Q1 2026 reflects post-second-term Noboa agenda rollout. The 12× multiplier overstates underlying trend; QoQ comparisons against Q4 2025 would be more informative but were not disclosed.

Country risk benchmark: 416 bps places Ecuador roughly in line with Brazil (~350 bps) and below Argentina (~700 bps). Significant improvement from 2024 distress levels (>1,500 bps). Driven by debt restructuring, oil revenue stabilization, and post-election political clarity.

Construction & Real Estate

2026 designated "The Year of Construction." Sector growth +20% YoY (Q1).

Biess first-home mortgage rate of 2.99% — significantly below private bank residential mortgage rates (8-12%). Eligibility restricted to IESS-affiliated borrowers meeting contribution thresholds. Subsidized rate likely to be a meaningful demand driver but exposure concentrated in formal-sector employees.

Real estate sector +17.8% YoY likely reflects mixed price + transaction volume effects; segmentation not disclosed.

International Agreements

Q1 2026 economic cooperation signings:

• United States (terms not detailed)
• United Arab Emirates (terms not detailed)
• South Korea (SECA — see separate brief, ratified 15 April)

Implications

Sovereign credit: 416 bps narrative supports continued spread compression. Watch for Fitch/Moody's/S&P ratings updates Q2 2026.

Equity markets / capital markets: Construction and real estate growth supports Bolsa de Valores Quito sector representation. Capital availability via Biess subsidy creates demand for residential development financing.

Sector specifics:

• Construction: Material suppliers (cement: Holcim, UNACEM), steel, ceramic tile (Graiman) likely Q1 beneficiaries
• Real estate: Developers in Quito, Cuenca, and coastal corridors positioned for sustained 2026 demand
• Banking: Biess pricing competition pressures private bank mortgage origination economics

Government narrative timing: April 17 broadcast precedes April 26 Asamblea reform debates. Macro positioning serves political calendar.

What to Watch

• BCE Q1 GDP release (typically end of April): Independent measure for cross-validation of sales growth narrative
• INEC March/April CPI: Inflation trajectory determines real growth math
• Sovereign rating actions Q2 2026: Spread compression sustainability
• Biess mortgage origination volume: Q1/Q2 figures will indicate uptake of subsidized rate
• Construction sector input prices: Cement, steel, rebar pricing trajectory
• Public investment execution Q2 2026: Whether $533M Q1 pace sustains
• Trade deficit data: Imports growth typically tracks public investment surge

Sources: El Universo, El Telégrafo