Colombia Power Sales Could Cut Ecuador's Dry-Season Deficit to 850 MW
Colombia's potential return as an electricity supplier could reduce Ecuador's dry-season generation gap, but the window may narrow by November if El Nino weakens Colombian hydro reserves.
Primicias reports that Colombia stopped selling electricity to Ecuador on January 22, 2026. Colombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy then published a draft resolution on June 7, 2026 that would allow electricity exports to Ecuador again; the comment period ran until June 22, 2026.
Deficit Impact
| Item | Reported figure |
|---|---|
| Severe Ecuador generation deficit scenario | about 1,300 MW |
| Deficit if Colombia exports to Ecuador | 850 MW |
| Colombia-Ecuador transmission capacity | about 450 MW |
| Ecuador average demand | 4,200-4,500 MW |
| Colombian capacity share of Ecuador demand | almost 10% |
Ecuador's dry season is expected to begin in October 2026 and extend through March 2027. The relevant commercial question is whether Colombian supply is available during the highest-risk part of that window.
November Risk
Alejandro Castaneda, executive president of Colombia's Andeg, told Primicias that Colombia could sell electricity now if the resolution is approved, but the outlook becomes uncertain from November.
Colombia normally uses the September-November period to refill hydroelectric reservoirs before the lower-rainfall period from December to March. Castaneda said reservoirs were at 75%, with an objective of reaching 80% in November.
Thermal generation is expected to contribute more from August to October and run at full load from November through May 2027.
Business Signal
For Ecuadorian industry, the 450 MW interconnection is material. It does not remove dry-season exposure, but it reduces the reported severe-deficit scenario by roughly one-third.
The risk is timing. If Colombian exports resume before November but become constrained during the same period when Ecuador's hydro system is weakest, large consumers still face continuity-of-operations exposure.
What to watch
- Whether Colombia issues the final resolution after the June 22 comment window.
- Reservoir levels in Colombia heading into November.
- Ecuador's contracting of domestic generation before the October-March dry-season period.
- Whether industrial users price power-interruption risk into operating plans.
Source: Primicias
Source
Primicias — “La venta de electricidad de Colombia a Ecuador es incierta desde noviembre, por el Fenómeno de El Niño”
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