Ecuador Launches 920 MW Thermal Procurement — $696.8M Total, Rental + Equipment Replacement Split

The Tender

Ecuador's electricity authorities have launched procurement for 920 MW of additional thermal generation for 2026, per El Universo (source).

Executing Entities

• Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía (MAE)
• Corporación Eléctrica del Ecuador (CELEC EP)

Contract Structure

Component	Capacity	Investment
Rapid-install rental	525 MW	$315.54 million
Equipment purchase / replacement	395 MW	$381.30 million
Total	920 MW	$696.84 million

Facilities Named

Equipment replacement targets nine thermal plants with facilities exceeding their useful life:

• Esmeraldas III
• Esmeraldas IV
• Durán
• Santa Elena II
• Quevedo II
• Guangopolo I
• Jivino
• TG6 Aníbal Santos
• TG1 Miraflores-Machala II

Demand Context

"La demanda eléctrica en Ecuador crece anualmente entre un 4 % y 5 %."

At ~4.5% compound annual growth and current demand near 26 TWh, incremental demand is roughly 1.2 TWh/year — the equivalent of ~150 MW of baseload addition needed annually just to keep pace.

What to Watch

• Thermal technology specification — the El Universo reporting does not disclose whether the 920 MW targets natural gas, diesel, or heavy fuel oil. The answer drives fuel cost trajectory and emissions profile.
• Rental contract terms — 525 MW via "arrendamiento de rápida instalación" typically means 12-24 month leases at premium per-kWh rates; counterparty selection (APR Energy, Wärtsilä, Aggreko, Powergen profile operators) matters.
• Coca Codo Sinclair PowerChina handover (July 2026) — if that transition stumbles, the 920 MW thermal becomes more bridging than supplementary; if it succeeds, thermal demand moderates.
• Ecuador-Peru interconnection — separately discussed as technically viable, provides an additional medium-term supply lever that would reduce thermal build needs.
• Emissions and environmental licensing — the MAE's dual role (awarding contracts and issuing environmental licenses) compresses project timelines but opens political friction windows.
• Tariff passthrough — thermal rental is expensive; how much of the cost reaches consumer tariffs versus absorbs into CELEC's P&L is the key fiscal question.

Source: El Universo