Ecuador's Central Bank Raises 2026 Economic Growth Forecast, Projects El Niño Impact in 2027

The Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) reported on September 15, 2026, an updated economic growth forecast for 2026, raising it from 2.5% to 2.7%. This revision considers recent economic data and anticipates increased growth in consumption, investment, and exports.

For 2026, the BCE projects household consumption to grow by 3.3%, while Gross Fixed Capital Formation (FBKF), an indicator of investment, is expected to increase by 5.8%. Exports of goods and services are projected to grow by 3.8%, with key products including shrimp, oil, mining products, bananas, and cocoa. The external sector is estimated to conclude 2026 with a current account surplus of USD 4.587 million. Remittances are projected to reach approximately USD 8.020 million in 2026.

Domestically, credit to the private sector is expected to increase by 10.9% in 2026, and deposits in the financial system are projected to grow by 11.5%. The BCE also forecasts an average annual inflation of 2.1% and anticipates International Reserves to reach around USD 11.239 million by the end of the year. For the period 2027-2030, the BCE forecasts an average economic growth of 2.5%.

What to watch

The BCE's updated macroeconomic programming includes a technical exercise on the possible effects of the El Niño phenomenon on the Ecuadorian economy, presenting both moderate and strong scenarios. The BCE clarifies that these scenarios are not predictions but an exercise to measure the economy's sensitivity to climate impact. The greatest impacts could be concentrated in 2027, potentially affecting production, exports, and prices. A moderate El Niño phenomenon would reduce the projected growth for 2027 by 0.5 percentage points compared to the base scenario, while a strong scenario could lead to a 1.4 percentage point reduction. The Macroeconomic Program also considers external, financial, and geopolitical risks that could alter the projected trajectory.

Sources: primicias.ec.