Ecuador Exporters See Single-Digit First-Half Growth As Costs Rise

Ecuador's export sector still expects growth in the first half of 2026, but the pace is no longer in record territory.

The economy grew 2.1% in the first quarter, while exporters faced international volatility, geopolitical tension and higher input and logistics costs.

Export Outlook

Xavier Rosero, executive president of Fedexpor, said the sector expects export growth to be in single digits for the first half of the year.

That compares with the first half of 2025, when non-oil, non-mining exports grew 22% and generated USD 12.6 billion in foreign exchange.

Input costs for agricultural exporters have increased between 40% and 60% on average this year in categories such as plastics, fertilizers and paper.

Freight and insurance costs have also risen by USD 300 to USD 600 per container, depending on destination.

Banana And Cacao Split

Banana exports grew 7.65% through May, reaching 181.43 million boxes. The European Union represented 33.85% of exports, while Russia represented 21.36%.

The Gulf market was weaker. Lebanon fell 83%, Kuwait fell 62%, and Oman and Qatar each fell more than 50%. Saudi Arabia rose 25%.

Cacao is the drag. The sector projects about 226,130 metric tons for the first half, 21,628 tons below January-June 2025. Projected cacao foreign exchange for the first half is USD 921 million, compared with USD 2.181 billion in the same period of 2025.

International cacao prices have stabilized around USD 4,000 to USD 4,500 per ton after reaching USD 12,000 per ton in 2024.

Business Readthrough

For exporters and suppliers, the issue is margin quality. Volume growth in banana helps, but higher inputs, reefer-space constraints and weaker cacao values can reduce the cash effect of headline export growth.

Watch freight availability, Gulf-route disruption, cacao production recovery and any policy movement on internal costs such as taxes, tariffs and logistics regulation.