Paute Inflows Enter the Dry Season Below Historical Benchmarks

Ecuador's Paute Integral system enters the September 2026-March 2027 dry season with below-historical water inflows. Mazar averaged 56 m³/s in August 2026, versus a historical August average of 90 m³/s.

The wider Paute River basin averaged 94.8 m³/s in August, against a historical August average of 136.4 m³/s. The figures are the most useful operating signal in the current report: they describe the water input available to a generation system that supplies a large share of Ecuador's average demand.

Operating data

The Ministry of Energy confirmed that Ecuador's dry season begins in September 2026 and could extend through March 2027. The operating problem is mechanical: lower river flows reduce hydroelectric generation. The report also says El Niño is expected during the dry-season window and could reduce flows further, while noting that weather remains difficult to predict.

The generation concentration

Paute Integral is a cascade of three facilities: Mazar at 170 MW, Paute-Molino at 1,100 MW, and Sopladora at 487 MW. Together, they represent about 3,350 MW, equal to nearly 76% of Ecuador's average demand in August 2026.

Mazar has the lowest installed capacity in the cascade but the reservoir function that supports the other plants. Its maximum level is 2,153 meters above sea level and the critical level is 2,115 meters. At 17:00 on September 1, 2026, the reported level was 2,147.2 msnm.

The report notes that when Mazar has reached 2,115 msnm in previous situations, the complex has left operation and Ecuador has recorded power cuts, including in 2024. This is a historical operating reference, not an announcement of a current blackout schedule.

The comparison set extends beyond Paute. Agoyán averaged 38.3 m³/s in August 2025 and 20 m³/s in August 2026. Coca Codo Sinclair, which operates without a Mazar-style reservoir, averaged 367 m³/s in August 2026, above its historical August average of 330 m³/s but below its August 2025 average of 414 m³/s.

Import and price transmission

The report identifies electricity purchases from Colombia as one way to preserve water in Mazar. It also says there is a high probability of higher electricity prices between November and December 2026, because Colombia anticipates more drought in that period as El Niño develops.

For businesses, this creates a monitoring chain rather than a single forecast: reservoir levels, inflow data, Colombia's supply and price, and the timing of any official operating measures. The current report does not identify a final import contract or announce future rationing.

What to watch

• Mazar's distance from the 2,115 msnm critical level.
• September inflows against the 68 m³/s historical September benchmark.
• Official information on Colombia electricity purchases and price formation.
• Whether the Paute system's 3,350 MW of capacity remains available through the dry-season window.

Source: Primicias