Rice Producers Warn El Niño Could Affect Up to 80,000 Hectares

Ecuador's rice and cacao sectors are reassessing climate exposure as a possible El Niño event raises flood, disease and post-harvest risk for agricultural production.

Rice producers identify Salitre, Samborondón and Vinces among the areas vulnerable to recurring winter flooding. Under a regular winter, affected rice areas are estimated at 40,000-50,000 hectares, equivalent to about one quarter of annual national production.

Under a stronger El Niño scenario, the exposed rice area could rise to 70,000-80,000 hectares, depending on the intensity of the event.

Rice and Industrial Exposure

Ecuador produces about 780,000 tons of rice annually. Producer representatives say small and medium growers in flood-prone zones face the greatest exposure, while industrial processors in lower areas of Guayas, particularly around Daule and Yaguachi, are also at risk.

Industrial measures include raising warehouse terrain and checking storage conditions to reduce leakage or product damage.

Cacao Risk

The cacao sector is also cautious. Anecacao cited Ciifen reports assigning a 20-30% probability that El Niño reaches a strong magnitude.

The most severe rainfall effects are expected toward the end of the year if the phenomenon strengthens. Cacao representatives warn that production could operate under reduced-volume conditions, while field work, harvesting, disease pressure and post-harvest handling could be affected.

What to watch

The key indicators are rainfall forecasts, flood mapping in Salitre, Samborondón, Vinces, Daule and Yaguachi, and whether public and private mitigation measures protect storage, harvest logistics and post-harvest handling.

For commodity buyers and exporters, the short-term risk is volume uncertainty. For processors and local distributors, the risk is disruption in field access, storage quality and supply timing.