Colombia Supply Risk Complicates Ecuador’s 450 MW Import Buffer For 2026 Dry Season

Development

Ecuador expects to resume electricity imports from Colombia as it prepares for the dry season starting in October 2026.

Under a severe drought scenario, Ecuador could face a 1,300 MW power deficit. The Colombia-Ecuador interconnection can supply up to 450 MW, equal to roughly 10% of Ecuador's average demand of 4,200 MW to 4,500 MW.

Colombia constraints

Colombia's grid operator warned on July 17 about demand growth, project delays, and lower water levels at hydroelectric reservoirs.

Only 669 MW of an expected 4,475 MW in new Colombian capacity had entered service by July 16. That represents 14.9% of the expected new capacity.

Colombia's maximum demand reached 12,475 MW, a 6.67% increase from July 2025.

Former mines and energy minister Amylkar Acosta said Colombia already has limitations and is close to rationing, though not yet in rationing.

Ecuador exposure

Colombia suspended electricity sales to Ecuador on January 22, 2026.

Colombian minister Edwin Palma said on July 22 that transactions would resume "in coming days." By July 24, an industry association said the final rule for international electricity transactions was still pending.

The political calendar adds uncertainty. A new Colombian government led by Abelardo de la Espriella is scheduled to take office on August 7.

Colombia also has scheduled maintenance in the last quarter of 2026 at Chivor, with 500 MW, and Guavio, with 1,260 MW.

Business significance

For Ecuador, Colombia imports are a buffer, not a full solution. Even at the interconnection limit, the 450 MW flow would cover only part of a severe-drought deficit.

For commercial and industrial users, the relevant planning horizon is September through December. Backup generation, data-center continuity, cold-chain exposure, and operating-hour flexibility remain material risk categories if imports are delayed or curtailed.

What to watch

• Whether Colombia formally reopens international electricity transactions before August 7
• Reservoir levels in Colombia and Ecuador heading into the fourth quarter
• Ecuador government updates on the 1,300 MW severe-drought scenario
• Potential limits on exports during Chivor and Guavio maintenance windows

Source: Primicias.