Ecuador Cocoa Exports Projected to Exceed 623,000 Metric Tons in 2026 — Country on Track to Surpass Ghana as World's #2 Producer

ANECACAO Projection: 623,000+ MT in 2026

The Asociación Nacional de Exportadores de Cacao del Ecuador (ANECACAO) projects Ecuador will export more than 623,000 metric tons of cocoa in 2026, marking an 11.3% increase from the 560,000 MT shipped in 2025. The projection is based on expanding cultivation area, improved yields from CCN-51 hybrid varieties, and sustained global demand.

Export Metric	2023	2024	2025	2026 (Projection)
Volume (MT)	420,000	480,000	560,000	623,000+
Year-over-year growth	+15%	+14.3%	+16.7%	+11.3%
Export value	$1.8 billion	$4.7 billion	$4.7 billion	TBD (price-dependent)
Average price ($/MT)	$4,286	$9,792	$8,393	~$3,000-4,000

The Path to #2: Overtaking Ghana

Ecuador's cocoa output has been rising steadily while Ghana's has been declining due to swollen shoot virus, aging tree stock, and illegal mining encroachment on farmland:

Country	2023/24 Output	2024/25 Output	2025/26 Projection	Global Share (2025/26)
Côte d'Ivoire	1.80 million MT	2.20 million MT	2.10 million MT	38%
Ghana	450,000 MT	600,000 MT	580,000 MT	11%
Ecuador	480,000 MT	560,000 MT	623,000+ MT	11.5%
Cameroon	300,000 MT	320,000 MT	330,000 MT	6%
Indonesia	280,000 MT	260,000 MT	250,000 MT	4.5%
Global total	4.40 million MT	5.10 million MT	5.40 million MT	100%

The crossover between Ecuador and Ghana is expected to occur in the 2025/26 marketing year, with Ecuador's volume advantage growing in subsequent seasons as its plantation base continues expanding.

The Price-Volume Disconnect

Ecuador faces a challenging volume-up, price-down dynamic:

Price Period	International Price ($/MT)	Context
April 2025 (peak)	~$9,000	Global deficit, West African crop failure
October 2025	~$6,500	Supply recovery beginning
January 2026	~$4,200	Surplus emerging
February 2026	~$3,050	Global surplus confirmed
2026 average (forecast)	$3,000-4,000	Supply normalization

At an average export price of $3,500/MT, Ecuador's 623,000 MT would generate approximately $2.18 billion in cocoa export revenue — a 54% decline from 2025's $4.7 billion despite shipping 11.3% more volume.

Revenue Scenario	Volume	Average Price	Total Revenue	vs. 2025
Bear case	623,000 MT	$3,000/MT	$1.87 billion	-60%
Base case	623,000 MT	$3,500/MT	$2.18 billion	-54%
Bull case	623,000 MT	$4,500/MT	$2.80 billion	-40%

Ecuador's Cocoa Varieties: The Fine Flavor Advantage

Ecuador's Nacional (Arriba) variety — classified as fine flavor cocoa by the ICCO — commands a $200-400/MT premium over bulk commodity cocoa:

Variety	Share of Ecuador Production	Typical Premium	Main Markets	Flavor Profile
CCN-51	70%	None (commodity)	Bulk grinding, China, Malaysia	Robust, high yield
Nacional (Arriba)	25%	+$200-400/MT	EU, US, Japan	Floral, fruity, complex
Fine blends	5%	+$500-1,000/MT	Artisanal chocolate	Single-origin premium

Ecuador accounts for approximately 56% of global fine flavor cocoa production, a position that provides some insulation from commodity price crashes for the Nacional segment.

Growing Regions

Province	Production (est. MT)	Share	Dominant Variety
Los Ríos	170,000	27%	CCN-51
Guayas	135,000	22%	CCN-51 + Nacional
Manabí	95,000	15%	Nacional
Esmeraldas	85,000	14%	CCN-51
El Oro	50,000	8%	CCN-51
Other	88,000	14%	Mixed
Total	623,000	100%

What to Watch

Track monthly ANECACAO export data — the pace of shipments in Q1 2026 will validate or challenge the 623,000 MT projection. Monitor international cocoa futures on ICE — any sustained recovery above $4,000/MT would significantly improve Ecuador's revenue outlook. Watch Ecuador-China trade data — China has become an increasingly important buyer of CCN-51 and volume shifts to the Chinese market will affect pricing dynamics. Track Nacional premium differentials — if the premium widens during a price crash, it would validate Ecuador's fine flavor positioning strategy. Monitor AGROCALIDAD phytosanitary export data — any pest or disease outbreaks could constrain export volumes.

Sources: Reuters / ANECACAO / ICCO