Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit Record $8.4B in 2025 — Surpass Oil as Top Export for First Time
The Milestone
Ecuador's shrimp sector shattered records in 2025, generating $8.401 billion in export revenue — a 20.2% increase over 2024 — and overtaking crude petroleum as the country's single largest export category for the first time in history. The achievement marks a structural shift in Ecuador's export economy, as a renewable aquaculture commodity displaces the hydrocarbon that has defined the country's trade balance for over five decades.
Export Performance
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shrimp exports | $6.99B | $8.401B | +20.2% |
| Oil exports | ~$8.2B | ~$7.8B | -4.9% |
| Non-oil exports (total) | $24.85B | $29.402B | +18.3% |
| Shrimp share of non-oil | 28.1% | 28.6% | +0.5 pp |
| Est. volume | ~1.3M MT | ~1.4M MT | +7.7% |
The divergence between oil and shrimp is driven by both structural and cyclical factors. Shrimp production has been on a consistent growth trajectory, supported by productivity gains, farm expansion, and favorable international prices. Oil output, by contrast, declined 0.6% in 2025 amid aging fields, declining reserves, and limited new investment.
Price and Volume Dynamics
The 20.2% revenue increase reflects both price appreciation and volume growth:
- Average export price rose approximately 11-12% YoY, driven by tight global supply and strong demand in key markets
- Volume growth of approximately 7-8% reflects continued farm expansion, particularly in El Oro, Guayas, and Manabí provinces
- Yield improvements from genetics, feed optimization, and disease management contributed to higher output per hectare
Ecuador remains the world's largest shrimp exporter, commanding approximately 28-30% of global trade — a dominant position built on geographic advantages (warm Pacific waters, extensive mangrove-adjacent coastal plains), decades of industry development, and consistently improving biosecurity practices.
The India Factor
A significant tailwind for Ecuadorian shrimp in 2025 was the U.S. imposition of countervailing duties (CVDs) on Indian shrimp, Ecuador's primary global competitor:
| Market | Ecuador Share (2024) | Ecuador Share (2025 est.) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 18% | 22% | +4 pp |
| China | 35% | 33% | -2 pp |
| European Union | 22% | 23% | +1 pp |
| Other | 25% | 22% | -3 pp |
The U.S. CVD investigation, which imposed preliminary duties of 4.36-5.77% on Indian shrimp, created a price advantage for Ecuadorian product in the U.S. market. Combined with the newly signed Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) eliminating U.S. tariffs on Ecuadorian shrimp, the competitive landscape has shifted materially in Ecuador's favor in its second-largest market.
Industry Structure
Ecuador's shrimp industry is a mix of vertically integrated industrial operators and smaller independent farms:
| Company | Est. Revenue | Operations |
|---|---|---|
| Grupo Almarsa (Omarsa) | ~$800M | Farming, processing, export |
| Industrial Pesquera Santa Priscila | ~$700M | Integrated farming and processing |
| Grupo Expalsa | ~$600M | Farming, processing, cold chain |
| Songa | ~$500M | Farming and processing |
| Others (~3,000 farms) | ~$5.8B | Independent farms and processors |
The Cámara Nacional de Acuacultura (CNA) represents the industry and has been instrumental in negotiating trade access, managing biosecurity protocols, and coordinating the sector's response to international trade challenges.
Sustainability Considerations
Ecuador's shrimp expansion is not without environmental scrutiny. The industry has historically been associated with mangrove deforestation — Ecuador lost approximately 50% of its original mangrove cover between the 1960s and 2000s, largely due to shrimp farm conversion. However, recent trends show improvement:
- The government banned new mangrove-area shrimp farm construction in 2008
- ASC (Aquaculture Stewardship Council) certification has expanded, with approximately 30-35% of Ecuador's shrimp exports now carrying sustainability certification
- The EU's deforestation-free product regulations (effective 2025) are pushing further certification adoption
2026 Outlook
Industry projections suggest 2026 could see Ecuador's shrimp sector exceed 1.5 million metric tons in export volume:
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Export revenue | $8.401B | $9.0-9.5B |
| Volume | ~1.4M MT | ~1.5-1.6M MT |
| Key driver | India CVDs | ART + China demand |
What to Watch
- U.S. CVD final determination — the definitive ruling on Indian shrimp duties (expected mid-2026) could either cement or unwind Ecuador's U.S. market gains
- ART implementation timeline — the speed at which tariff-free access under the ART takes effect will determine the near-term U.S. market impact
- China demand recovery — China absorbs approximately one-third of Ecuador's shrimp exports; any slowdown in Chinese consumer demand would materially affect volumes and pricing
- Disease risk — the sector's rapid expansion increases vulnerability to pathogens; any outbreak similar to the Early Mortality Syndrome that devastated Asian shrimp production could disrupt output
- 1.5M MT milestone — crossing this threshold would represent a psychological and operational milestone for the global aquaculture industry
Sources: We Are Aquaculture, CNA
