Ecuador's Cocoa Sector Faces 2026 Challenges Amid Export Decline and El Niño Risk

Ecuador's cocoa sector is facing a complex outlook for 2026, characterized by a projected smaller harvest, a downturn in international prices, and the potential for intense rainfall associated with the El Niño phenomenon. This combination of factors has already impacted export performance.

Between January and July 2026, Ecuador exported 263,137 tons of cocoa and processed products. This represents an 8.3% reduction compared to the 287,010 tons exported during the same period in 2025. The decline in value has been more pronounced; exports reached USD 1,195.7 million in the first seven months of 2026, a 55% decrease from the USD 2,636.2 million recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

International cocoa prices have also shown a downward trend. On September 21, 2026, the price per ton of cocoa closed at USD 5,307, a reduction of USD 20 (0.38%) from the previous day, according to Investing.com. Anecacao had previously anticipated volatile price behavior for cocoa in 2026.

The El Niño phenomenon poses a significant risk to agricultural production, particularly in Ecuador's coastal region, which typically experiences increased precipitation during such events. This can elevate the risk of floods, river overflows, and landslides. Anecacao expects above-normal rainfall on the Coast in the coming months and is particularly monitoring Guayas, Manabí, and Esmeraldas, although an estimate of affected hectares is not yet available. In Guayas, the behavior of rivers and low-lying areas is a specific concern. In 2025, Ecuador had 693,698 hectares planted with cocoa, with Manabí, Los Ríos, and Esmeraldas contributing 57.1% of the national volume.

In response to these climate risks, Anecacao has launched "Cacao Preparado 2026-2027." This initiative aims to translate climate alerts into practical recommendations for producers, collection centers, and other stakeholders within the cocoa supply chain.

What to watch

Stakeholders should monitor the progression of El Niño-related rainfall on the Coast, particularly its impact on key cocoa-producing provinces like Guayas, Manabí, and Esmeraldas. The effectiveness of Anecacao's "Cacao Preparado 2026-2027" initiative in mitigating climate risks will be a key factor. Additionally, the trajectory of international cocoa prices will continue to influence the sector's economic performance.

Sources: primicias.ec.