Ecuador Faces 1,300 MW Dry-Season Deficit Scenario In 2026 Power Planning

Ecuador's electricity system faces a potential 1,300 MW deficit scenario if the 2026 dry season is severe, according to the Ministry of Energy.

That would equal almost 30% of average national demand.

Demand And Hydrology Exposure

The Amazon-basin dry season is expected in less than three months and generally runs from October to March. In normal periods, hydroelectric plants cover around 85% of Ecuador's electricity demand.

The principal risk is that low river flows reduce generation from major hydroelectric plants while warmer coastal temperatures lift consumption.

Generation Timing Risk

The government has ruled out blackouts for 2026, but project timing remains tight. Celec awarded one of five thermal-rental processes on July 8, 2026, covering 50 MW for the Enrique García plant in Guayaquil.

That contract allows up to six months before operation, meaning the plant could begin generating in January 2027.

Ecuador also no longer has all 300 MW of floating generation rented in 2024. Only 100 MW is guaranteed through 2028 with the Murat Bey barge.

Thermal Fleet Constraint

Thermal plants are expected to be essential during dry-season pressure. However, 13 of Ecuador's 53 thermal units have between 30 and 56 years of operation and represent 541 MW, or 30% of available thermal capacity.

Celec says it expects to reincorporate 132.8 MW of thermal generation before October 30, 2026 through maintenance recovery.

What To Watch

Watch rainfall forecasts, El Niño intensity between November 2026 and January 2027, thermal-rental start dates, maintenance completion before October 30, and power-import availability from Colombia.