2026 Archive
599 articles published in 2026
July 2026
Diesel Benchmark Reaches USD 4.19 Before Ecuador's August Reset
International diesel and gasoline benchmarks rebounded ahead of Ecuador's August 12 fuel-price adjustment. The movement narrows room for the government to repeat July's USD 0.05-per-gallon reduction.
Ecuador Customs Reform Adds 25-Day Abandonment Trigger
Ecuador's customs reform establishes new definitive-abandonment scenarios and changes how Senae disposes of goods. A detained tourist vehicle may be declared abandoned after one month without a recovery or regularization procedure.
Ecuador Confirms Second Foc R4T Outbreak In El Oro
Ecuador confirmed a second Foc R4T banana outbreak on July 14 within the same El Oro containment area as the first case. Industry controls now combine farm biosecurity, public-agency coordination, climate monitoring, and resistant-variety research.
Ecuador Retains 10% U.S. Tariff Under Section 301 Regime
The United States applied a 10% Section 301 surcharge to Ecuador and 16 other jurisdictions. Ecuador's production minister says the rate preserves the country's existing tariff burden while supply-chain traceability controls are implemented.
Capital Shopping Passes 20% Completion On USD 100M Build
Capital Shopping has exceeded 20% construction in Portoviejo. The Consorcio Portoshops project combines more than USD 100 million in private investment with a municipal access-road build inside the Villanueva business district.
World Bank Approves USD 750M Budget Support Operation For Ecuador
The World Bank Group approved USD 750 million in budget support for Ecuador, backing reforms around public spending, fiscal risk, social transfers, business climate, financing for companies, and private-sector participation.
Celec Regains Path To Terminate Failed Esmeraldas III Contract
Celec can again move toward unilateral termination of the ATM contract for Esmeraldas III after emergency arbitration measures were left without effect. The failed 91 MW project had a USD 89.9 million contract and fines near USD 23 million.
Ecuador And Argentina Finalize Auto Tariff Agreement
The agreement lowers Argentina’s vehicle tariff from 28% to 10% and Ecuador’s from 15% to 10% inside a preferential quota of 3,000 units per country for 10 years, with separate origin-content rules above the quota.
Colombian Freight Resistance Slows Ecuador Truck Access
Colombia revoked its restriction after a CAN ruling in favor of Ecuador, but heavy cargo still is not moving freely because Colombian transport groups oppose the change and have warned of immobilizations.
CAF-Backed Consultancy To Draft 20-Year Guayas Basin Plan
The consultancy budget is USD 562,500, with CAF financing 80% through nonreimbursable technical cooperation. The final product is expected to include a 20-year master plan and at least 10 financeable projects.
SCE Authorizes Santa Priscila Acquisition Of Ecuaprotein Assets
Ecuador's Superintendency of Competition cleared Industrial Pesquera Santa Priscila to acquire Ecuaprotein assets used for shrimp and fish hydrolysates. The transaction strengthens vertical positioning for one of Ecuador's largest companies, though the authority did not disclose the purchase price.
Canada-Ecuador FTA Reframes Mining Pipeline As Catastro Remains Closed
Ecuador's July 24 free-trade agreement with Canada improves the investment-policy signal for mining, but the sector still faces a closed mining cadastre and unresolved fiscal concerns. Canadian-linked projects include Fruta del Norte, El Domo, La Plata, Warintza, Loma Larga, and Ruta del Cobre exposure.
ITT Output Falls 20% As Petroecuador Maintains Five-Year Closure Path
Bloque 43-ITT production averaged 42,105 barrels per day in January-June 2026, down 20% from the same period in 2023 and 4.5% from 2025. The Yasuní field remains the fourth-largest producer in Ecuador as Petroecuador pursues a five-year closure process contested by Yasunidos.
Large Cooperative Delinquency Holds At 8.3% As Microcredit Stress Persists
Ecuador's 44 large savings and credit cooperatives held 78% of cooperative-sector credit through May 2026, while delinquency stood at 8.3% in June. Microcredit remains the weakest segment at 10.81%, reflecting stress among entrepreneurs and small businesses.
Violence Costs Ecuador USD 12.2B Annually As Illicit Flows Enter Formal Economy
A 2026 IAEN study estimates Ecuador's annual violence cost at more than USD 12.2 billion, or USD 1,127 per person. The analysis links organized crime to household, corporate, fiscal, tourism, export-security, and money-laundering pressures.
Ecuador Pushes Emergency Arbitration In Agenda 2040 Investor-Security Package
Ecuador’s Agenda Crecimiento 2040 proposes emergency arbitration as part of a legal-security package for investors. The measure targets urgent interim relief in state-private disputes while Ecuador works through a broader reset of investment protection after a March 2026 Constitutional Court interpretation.
Ecuador Digital Payments Scale As Cash Withdrawals Drop 22% In 2025
Ecuador’s private-bank cash withdrawals from savings accounts fell 22% in 2025, while POS and electronic payment channels grew 35% over two years. Digital channels now account for 67.7% of transaction count and 67% of amount moved, signaling a structural shift in retail payments and banking usage.
Colombia Supply Risk Complicates Ecuador’s 450 MW Import Buffer For 2026 Dry Season
Ecuador’s interconnection with Colombia can supply up to 450 MW, about 10% of Ecuador’s 4,200-4,500 MW average demand. But Colombian capacity delays and 6.67% demand growth are creating uncertainty ahead of Ecuador’s October dry season.
Ecuador Targets August 20 Completion For Economy, Production And Agriculture Ministry Fusion
Ecuador expects to complete the fusion of Economy, Production, and Agriculture ministries by August 20. The process under Decree 425 reduces the cabinet from 14 ministries to 10 and transfers programs, contracts, budgets, assets, liabilities, rights, and obligations to the new ministry.
Ecuador Holds 10% U.S. Tariff Position As Colombia And Peru Face 12.5%
Ecuador has a relative U.S. tariff advantage after Colombia, Peru, Chile, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic were placed in a 12.5% band. Fedexpor says 46% of Ecuador non-oil exports still face a 10% surcharge, but more than 54% remain exempt.
El Nino Reprices Ecuador Commodity Risk Across Cacao, Coffee, Bananas And Rice
El Nino is moving from weather risk into commodity pricing. Ecuador-exposed products show pressure across cacao, coffee, bananas and rice, with potential consumer-price pass-through over 12 to 20 months.
Ecuador Rice Export Restart Targets More Than 50,000 Tons After Colombia Permits Resume
Ecuador-Colombia rice trade is restarting by land after the first import permits were issued. The government cites an initial 30,000-ton negotiation, while Corpcom projects more than 50,000 tons could move before year-end.
Ecuador Oil-Export Income Reaches USD 1.561 Billion By July 23
Oil-export revenue has nearly matched 2025’s full-year result as WTI and Ecuador’s realized barrel price rise above budget assumptions.
Ecuador And Canada Sign 26-Chapter Free-Trade Agreement In Ottawa
The agreement signed July 24 covers goods access, rules of origin, customs, digital trade and investment provisions.
Ecuador Cites Initial Colombia Power-Trade Tariff Agreement
Ecuador says Colombia could resume electricity sales in coming days under an initial reciprocal-price understanding.
Zamora Chinchipe Tax Revenue Reaches USD 758M, Overtaking Azuay
Zamora Chinchipe collected USD 758 million in taxes in the first half of 2026, a 76% increase year on year. The result places the mining province ahead of Azuay in tax collection and highlights the fiscal weight of Fruta del Norte and Mirador.
Ecuador Extra Gasoline Demand Falls 8% As Price Band Lifts Retail Cost
Ecuador’s average gasoline consumption fell 3% in the first half of 2026, led by an 8% decline in Extra demand. The report links the change to higher prices, household pressure, and temporary supply shortages.
Colombia Reopens Private-Sector Electricity Trade With Ecuador
Colombia has formalized the restart of private-sector electricity trade with Ecuador after suspending energy sales in January 2026. The announcement does not specify delivered volumes, prices, or the exact first transaction date.
Chevron Seeks Enforcement Of USD 224.38M Ecuador Award In Washington
Chevron and TexPet have asked a Washington court to enforce a USD 224.38 million claim against Ecuador tied to a Hague award. The reported total includes USD 175.72 million in base damages, USD 40.47 million in pre-award interest, and post-award accruals.
Ecuador Oil Transport Falls 5% In First Half As OCP Volumes Drop
Ecuador’s crude transport declined 5% in the first half of 2026 as a 34% fall in OCP volumes outweighed a 17.5% gain through SOTE. The report links the lower throughput to a 1.5% decline in national oil production through May.
Ecuador And Canada Set July 24 Signing For Free Trade Agreement
Ecuador and Canada are scheduled to sign their free trade agreement on July 24, according to Ecuador’s vice minister for export promotion and investment. Authorities say the agreement would provide preferential access to a Canadian market of roughly 40 million consumers.
Ecuador Trade Surplus Falls 38% As Fuel Imports Rise Through May 2026
Ecuador’s trade surplus fell to USD 2.144 billion through May 2026 as imports grew faster than exports. Fuel and lubricant imports reached USD 3.683 billion, up 35% year over year, driven by higher oil prices and refinery constraints.
El Niño Could Accelerate Fusarium Spread In Ecuador Banana Sector
Ecuador’s banana sector is warning that El Niño rains and flooding could accelerate the spread of Fusarium R4T. A second case was confirmed in Santa Rosa, El Oro, on July 14, in a 90-hectare farm near the first detected focus.
Delivery Hero To Transfer PedidosYa Ecuador To SSW Partners
Delivery Hero signed an agreement with New York-based SSW Partners covering PedidosYa Ecuador and 13 other markets. The deal sits inside a broader transaction in which 50 Delivery Hero markets will become Uber, while SSW will independently seek strategic partners for the 14 transferred markets.
BCE Gold Purchases From Small Miners Reach USD 573M Over 10 Years
The Central Bank of Ecuador has purchased more than 9.8 tonnes of gold from artisanal and small-scale miners over 10 years, totaling USD 573 million. Gold monetary reserves reached USD 3.812 billion by April 2026, representing 33.11% of international reserves.
Ecuador Rice Exporters Await Colombia Permit Reopening After July 20 Deadline
Ecuadorian rice exporters are waiting for Colombia to reactivate import permits after a 45-day extension of the land-border restriction expired July 20. Corpcom says the sector stopped shipping 50,000 tonnes to Colombia between April and June, during peak harvest.
Ecuador Electricity Demand Hits 5,634.31 MW July Record
Ecuador’s electricity demand reached 5,634.31 MW at 19:00 on July 15, the highest level recorded so far in 2026. The peak exceeded the Electricity Master Plan’s 2026 normal-growth projection of 5,206 MW, adding pressure before the October-March dry season.
China-Made Vehicles Reach 57% Of Ecuador Auto Sales In H1 2026
Vehicles assembled in China represented 57% of Ecuador auto sales in the first half of 2026, according to Cinae. Monthly China-origin sales now exceed 7,000 units, while June 2026 set a record with 8,363 units.
Insecurity Is Top External Concern For 53% Of Ecuador SMEs
Insecurity is the leading external concern for 53% of Ecuador SMEs in Chubb’s latest barometer. The study says theft, violence and extortion create material losses, raise operating costs and reduce confidence in the business environment.
Ecuador Delivers First Locally Assembled Military Patrol Vehicle
Ecuador’s first locally assembled military patrol vehicle was delivered to the Joint Command of the Armed Forces. The Páramo model was assembled at Aymesa’s Quito plant with tactical adaptations, ballistic armor and specialized equipment.
SRI Sets Mechanism For Tax On Undistributed Corporate Profits
Ecuador’s tax authority established the mechanism for declaring and paying the single tax on dividends or profits not distributed to shareholders. The rule applies to companies that have not distributed accumulated profits from prior years by July 31 of the current fiscal year.
Ecuador Faces 1,300 MW Dry-Season Deficit Scenario In 2026 Power Planning
Ecuador faces at least six electricity-system challenges before the 2026 Amazon dry season, including climate risk, delayed thermal rentals, aging plants and maintenance timing. Hydroelectric generation normally covers about 85% of demand, making dry-season hydrology the central operating risk.
Ecuador Extends PCR Contract For Pindo Oil Block Through 2037
Ecuador’s environment and energy ministry signed a USD 69 million extension with Petroquímica Comodoro Rivadavia to operate the Pindo oil block through 2037. The contract includes exploration wells, development wells, workovers using hydraulic fracturing techniques and gas-capture systems.
Orion Energy And Gente Oil Submit Offers For Intracampos III Fields
Orion Energy and Gente Oil submitted offers for the Tetete Sur and Lumbaqui fields in Ecuador’s Intracampos III oil round. The government expects the round to lift national oil production by 9,900 to 12,000 barrels per day.
Ecuador Reports USD 1.292B In 2025 Sustainable Finance Mobilization
Ecuador mobilized USD 1.292 billion in sustainable finance in 2025, according to the Mesa de Finanzas Sostenibles. The total includes housing, water and sanitation, climate finance, biodiversity bonds and public development-bank credit lines.
Celec Awards USD 47.8M 50 MW Diesel Rental For Enrique García Plant
Celec awarded a USD 47.8 million contract to rent 50 MW of land-based thermal generation for the Enrique García plant in Guayaquil. The process launched on May 7 and was awarded July 8, creating a timing risk ahead of Ecuador’s October dry season.
Colombia Lifts Restriction On Ecuador Cargo Transport Operations
Colombia lifted a requirement affecting international ground cargo operations between Ecuador and Colombia on July 9, 2026. The change follows a June 15 CAN ruling that deemed the measure contrary to Andean Community law and gave Colombia 20 days to remove it.
Descartes’ USD 30M Drivin Acquisition Extends Into Ecuador Logistics
The Descartes Systems Group acquired Chilean logistics platform Drivin for USD 30 million. The transaction reaches Ecuador through Drivin’s local operation, which serves corporate and SME logistics clients in consumer goods, food and beverages, retail, pharmaceuticals and logistics operations.
Imbabura Targets USD 150,000 In 2026 Tango Mandarin Exports To U.S.
Ecuador is exporting tango mandarins from Imbabura to the United States, with the first of six planned shipments totaling 23,430 kilograms. Agrocalidad expects 140,550 kilograms in 2026, equivalent to USD 150,000 in planned exports.
Monetary Code Reform Proposes Inclusion Credit Rates For Borrowers Without History
A Monetary Code reform under review in the National Assembly proposes a special interest-rate regime for borrowers without credit history or risk-bureau records. The Financial and Monetary Policy Board would set the regime, while the proposal currently limits inclusion loans to 36 months.
Ecuador Private Banks Post Record USD 544.1M H1 Profit
Ecuador's private banking system reported USD 544.1 million in first-half 2026 profit, the highest first-half figure in a decade. The result was up 30.39% from USD 417.3 million in H1 2025, while Pichincha, Pacífico, Guayaquil and Produbanco captured 72% of sector profits.
SRI Shifts Commercial Transport Billing To Authorized Operators
Ecuador's SRI changed commercial transport billing rules from July 13, 2026. Heavy cargo, school, tourism, mixed, alternative and light cargo transport must now invoice clients through authorized operators, with 90 days to adapt electronic billing systems.
Ecuador Confirms Second Fusarium Foc R4T Case In El Oro
Agrocalidad confirmed Ecuador's second positive case of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense Tropical Race 4 on July 14. The detection was in El Quemado, El Oro, adjacent to La Carolina, where authorities registered the country's first outbreak.
Nestlé Moves Nature’s Heart Production From Tabacundo To Guayaquil
Nestlé is moving Terrafertil's Nature's Heart production operation from Tabacundo to Guayaquil. Terrafertil reported 141 employees and USD 30.9 million in sales revenue in 2025, according to company-superintendency information cited in the report.
Guayaquil Business Chambers Challenge SRI 60% Credit-Note Limit
The Guayaquil Chamber of Industries and Guayaquil Chamber of Commerce challenged SRI Resolution NAC-DGERCGC26-00000015, which limits use of credit notes to 60% of the tax amount due from May 1, 2026. The chambers argue the measure hurts productive-sector liquidity.
SCE Clears TIL Acquisition Of Guayaquil’s Naportec Bananapuerto
Ecuador’s competition authority cleared TIL to acquire Naportec S.A., the Guayaquil Bananapuerto asset formerly tied to Dole Food Company. The transaction was previously announced at roughly USD 75 million, and SCE said the operation does not alter competition in the relevant port and container-shipping markets.
Fruta Del Norte Produces 118,994 Gold Ounces In Q2 2026
Fruta del Norte produced 118,994 ounces of gold in Q2 2026, including 79,208 ounces in concentrate and 39,786 ounces of doré. Lundin Gold sold 110,385 ounces at an average price of USD 4,359 per ounce and maintained 2026 guidance of 475,000-525,000 ounces.
Carga Segura Targets End-To-End Security For Ecuador-Europe Exports
Carga Segura is being positioned as an end-to-end export-security pilot from farms to European destination ports. The project involves Corpei, Fedexpor, banana and cacao sectors, European ports including Antwerp-Bruges, Rotterdam and Flushing, and public agencies on both sides of the route.
Customs Reform Targets More Than 12,000 Abandoned Containers Per Year
Ecuador’s Economic Development Committee approved the second-debate report for a customs reform bill. The proposal targets abandoned cargo, including more than 12,000 containers per year and approximately USD 450 million in retained cargo value.
Ecuador Seeks 90-110 MW Barge Extension As Dry-Season Risk Builds
Elecaustro opened a USD 42.7 million process to keep the 90-110 MW Erin Sultan barge operating at Las Esclusas. Cenace warns of a 25% probability of power deficits in the 2026-2027 dry season and says Ecuador needs at least 893.7 MW of additional capacity.
Ecuador Posts USD 2.144B Trade Surplus Through May 2026
Ecuador recorded a USD 2.144 billion goods trade surplus from January through May 2026, down 38% from the prior-year period. Exports reached USD 16.288 billion, while imports rose 18% to USD 14.143 billion.
China Projects Ecuador Trade Above USD 20B As Tariff Cuts Deepen
China’s consul in Guayaquil said bilateral trade could exceed USD 20 billion as third-year tariff reductions under the Ecuador-China agreement take effect. Bilateral trade reached USD 17.330 billion in 2025, up 24%.
Manabí Targets 8,000 Bovines In Cattle-Genetics Program
Manabí’s prefectural cattle program aims to inseminate more than 8,000 bovines and directly or indirectly benefit 1,500 livestock producers. The initiative operates through 34 livestock producer schools.
Petroecuador Awards 950,000-Barrel Fuel Oil Sale To Trafigura
Petroecuador awarded Trafigura PTE a 950,000-barrel Fuel Oil No. 6 sale expected to generate roughly USD 63 million. The sale covers five cargoes of 190,000 barrels each, plus or minus 10%, using the USGC HSFO marker and a USD -5.25 per-barrel differential.
Ecuador Finance Reform Targets Interest-On-Interest In Debt Refinancing
Ecuador’s Economic Regime Commission is preparing second-debate language on a financial reform targeting interest-on-interest treatment in some debt refinancings. The same reform would broaden securities-market intermediary roles beyond brokerage houses to include financial-system entities such as banks.
Ecuador Fuel Subsidy Cost Estimated At USD 650M Over Three Months
Ecuador’s fuel subsidy cost for Extra, Ecopaís and diesel was estimated at roughly USD 650 million between May and July 2026. The estimate breaks down to USD 190 million from April to May, USD 220 million from May to June, and USD 240 million from June 11 to July 11.
RUMBO Ecuador Proposes Long-Term Platform For Agriculture Strategy
RUMBO Ecuador is positioning itself as a long-term agriculture strategy platform connecting producers, academia, private companies, civil society and public institutions. The proposed structure includes a national assembly, territorial and thematic committees in every province, and an executive secretariat.
Asotep Ports Project USD 807M In Private Investment By 2030
Private port terminals associated with Asotep report USD 418 million in accumulated investment through 2025 and project roughly USD 807 million by 2030. The terminals handle about 1.2 million TEU annually, more than 44% of Ecuador’s non-oil cargo and roughly 14 million tons per year.
Ecuador Energy Plan Includes Colombia Purchases And 100 MW Rental Generation
Ecuador is preparing for the dry season with possible electricity purchases from Colombia and land-based rental generation targeting 100 MW this year. The plan comes as estiaje usually begins in September and may coincide with El Niño conditions.
Ecuador Spends USD 148.4M On Public-Sector Severance In First Half
Ecuador spent USD 148.4 million in the first half of 2026 on public-sector severance, including layoffs, post suppressions, resignation purchases and voluntary retirement incentives. The amount is USD 60 million, or 68%, above the first half of 2025.
Decree 444 Adjusts Ecuador Fuel Bands With Five-Cent July Drop
Ecuador changed the fuel-price stabilization formula under Decree 444, leading to a five-cent reduction from July 12 for Extra, Ecopaís and diesel. Extra and Ecopaís fall from USD 3.31 to USD 3.26 per gallon, while diesel Premium falls from USD 3.25 to USD 3.20.
China Suspends Shrimp Imports From Six Ecuadorian Companies
China suspended shrimp imports from seven Ecuadorian plants tied to six companies from June 30, while May rejections reached 132 lots and about 2,904 tons. The issue matters because China accounts for more than half of Ecuador’s shrimp export market.
Ecuador PAI Spending Reaches USD 1.158B In First Half Of 2026
Ecuador’s public investment plan spending reached USD 1.158 billion in the first half of 2026, more than double the same period of 2025. The acceleration matters because the PAI is funded with internal and external debt.
BanEcuador Consumer Credit Rises As Microcredit Falls Before El Niño
BanEcuador’s consumer-credit portfolio rose to USD 67 million in June 2026 while microcredit fell to USD 1.025 billion. The mix shift is notable as El Niño risk builds for agricultural borrowers.
Progen Local Dispute Adds USD 6.1M Claim To Celec Contract Fallout
A new contract dispute tied to Progen’s emergency generator work adds a USD 6.1 million claim between local companies to an already complex Celec fallout. The issue expands the commercial-risk map around Ecuador’s 2024 emergency power procurements.
Petroecuador Adds 3,181 bpd From New Auca Well
Petroecuador started operations at ACAL-245HUI in the Auca asset, adding 3,181 barrels per day and an estimated USD 5.2 million in monthly revenue for the state.
Quito Tenis y Golf Club Plans USD 75M Pifo Relocation
Quito Tenis y Golf Club is building a new 110-hectare site in Pifo with around USD 75 million in investment, while its 78-hectare El Condado site is positioned for park, road and housing uses.
Ecuador Cash Income Receipt Rises To 21% As Account Use Falls
A 2026 regional financial-inclusion survey found 21% of Ecuador respondents received salaries or other income in cash in 2025, up from 19% in 2024, while own-account receipt fell to 44%.
Ecuador Opens Dominican Republic Trade Talks After USD 148M Export Year
Ecuador and the Dominican Republic opened negotiations for a partial-scope agreement after Ecuador exported USD 148 million to that market in 2025 and posted Q1 2026 growth.
Ecuador Rice Industry Targets 50,000 Tons To Colombia After July 20 Route Reopening
Ecuador’s rice sector expects to resume land shipments to Colombia after July 20 and is targeting roughly 50,000 tons in second-half exports, according to the sector projection cited by Corpcom.
Ecuador FDI Reaches USD 431.5M In Q1 As Singapore And Peru Lead Inflows
Ecuador recorded USD 431.5 million in foreign direct investment in Q1 2026, up 85.7% from the same period of 2025, led by Singapore and Peru.
Ecuador E-Commerce Exceeds USD 7B As Marketplaces Scale Logistics
Ecuador’s e-commerce market exceeded USD 7 billion in 2025, with marketplaces scaling logistics, payment processing, same-day delivery, and merchant onboarding.
IESS Active Affiliates Reach 3.6 Million As Contribution Base Expands
Ecuador’s social-security system reached 3.6 million active affiliates as of May 2026, up more than 102,000 people from the prior year. The key operating data point for employers is the 9.45% employee contribution and 11.5% employer contribution on dependent labor.
El Nino Risk Map Exposes 460 Health Facilities In Yellow-Alert Parishes
At least 460 Ecuadorian health facilities operate in parishes under yellow alert for El Nino. The exposure is concentrated in Manabi and Guayas, and the public health ministry has not reported a contingency plan for the event.
CNE Receives 286 Complaints Against CPCCS Postulations For 2027 Vote
Ecuador’s electoral authority received 286 complaints against CPCCS postulations for the 2027 election cycle. The process now moves into review by the Verification Commission and a July 9-13 contradiction period.
Spain Housing Costs Pressure Ecuadorian Migrant Hubs In Madrid And Barcelona
Spain’s housing-price increase is concentrated in several provinces where Ecuadorian migrants live and work. Madrid reached USD 4,614 per square meter, while the Ecuadorian population in Spain exceeds 460,000 people.
Ecuador-Made Vehicle Sales Reach 7,922 Units In First Half Of 2026
Ecuadorian dealerships sold 78,136 vehicles in the first half of 2026, up 42.8% year over year. Locally assembled vehicles reached 7,922 units, keeping Aymesa and Ciauto relevant in a market led by China-assembled imports.
Ecuador Regulates VIS Housing Donations With 100% Income-Tax Rebate Mechanism
Ecuador issued Decree 440 to regulate donations of social-interest housing by companies and individuals. Donors can claim a rebate equal to 100% of the donated value, capped at 30% of income tax caused for the year, with no refund or carryforward for excess amounts.
Ecuador Remittances Reach USD 1.8567 Billion In First Quarter Of 2026
Remittances into Ecuador totaled USD 1.8567 billion in the first quarter of 2026, according to central bank data cited in the latest report. The figure remained above the prior-year quarter but showed deceleration from the fourth quarter of 2025.
Ecuador Fisheries Face El Niño Supply Pressure As Tuna Catches Fall More Than 13%
Ecuador’s fishing sector is seeing lower availability as El Niño-linked warming redistributes marine resources. Tuna catches are down more than 13% versus 2025, while smaller coastal species used for fishmeal are under a July 1-August 9 closure.
Elecaustro Cancels 100 MW Emre Bey Barge Procurement After Sercop Objections
Elecaustro declared the Emre Bey floating-generation process deserted after Sercop identified procurement-law issues and recommended cancellation. The failed 100 MW contract is material because national demand averages about 4.300 MW and the government is preparing for the next dry season.
Assembly First Debate Puts Mora Interest And Securities-Market Reform In Same Bill
Ecuador’s Assembly opened first debate on a Código Monetario y Financiero reform covering mora-interest rules, forced-liquidation protections, and securities-market changes. The capital-market section drew objections from RC, Pachakutik, and PSC legislators over extrabursátil operations and unity-of-matter concerns.
Ecuador Launches Tuna Executive Table With Harvard Growth Lab Support
Ecuador’s public sector, private tuna actors, international organizations, Harvard Growth Lab, and CAF joined the first Mesa Ejecutiva del Sector Atunero. The mechanism is designed to produce concrete actions, assigned responsibilities, deadlines, and permanent follow-up for one of Ecuador’s core export chains.
Singapore’s Boroo Enters Ecuador Through Codelco-Linked Mining Concessions
Boroo, a Singapore mining company, has entered Ecuador by acquiring a significant number of concessions from Emsaec, the Codelco subsidiary. The areas are in exploration stage, and company details are expected once Boroo finalizes its in-country agenda.
Ecuador Agriculture Ministry Sets $20M El Niño Contingency Plan
Ecuador’s Agriculture Ministry presented a contingency plan of about $20 million for a possible El Niño event expected toward late 2026 and early 2027. Officials cited a worst-case exposure of up to 2 million hectares and roughly $1.3 billion in losses, around 1% of GDP.
Ecuador Opens $39.24M Tanicuchí Transmission System In Cotopaxi
Ecuador inaugurated the Tanicuchí transmission system in Cotopaxi, a $39.24 million project expected to benefit 487,919 residents. The system includes 230/138 kV infrastructure and 150 MVA of capacity, financed through BID, JICA, Celec and fiscal resources.
Ecuador Starts 30-Month Amazon Biocorridor Conservation Plan
Ecuador’s Environment and Energy Ministry launched the participatory conservation-planning process for the Amazon Biocorridor. The 30-month roadmap is linked to the country’s December 2024 debt-for-nature conversion and targets at least 1.8 million hectares and 18,000 kilometers of representative connected rivers.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade Recovery Moves Slowly After Tariffs Return To 0%
Ecuador-Colombia trade is recovering after bilateral tariff surcharges ended on June 1, 2026, but business groups say normalization is gradual. Non-oil exports to Colombia fell 5% in the first four months of 2026, while non-oil imports from Colombia contracted 22%.
Mexican-Owned Firms In Ecuador Generate 20,429 Direct Jobs, Trade Data Show
Mexican capital remains embedded in Ecuador through 13 registered companies in sectors including telecommunications, health, aviation, consumer goods and automotive activity. January-April 2026 trade data showed Ecuador imported USD 214.6 million from Mexico and exported USD 67.3 million.
Business Chamber Seeks Labor Ministry Clarification On June 26 Pay Treatment
Ecuador's Chamber of Industries and Production asked the Labor Ministry to clarify pay treatment for workers who labored on June 26, after Executive Decree 431 suspended the workday without recovery. Labor lawyers cited by the source argue the non-recoverable suspension creates a holiday-like payment consequence.
June 2026
Ecuador Business Chambers Favor Dialogue Posture As Governance Questions Grow
Ecuador’s business chambers are avoiding broad public confrontation over governance controversies, with leaders pointing instead to institutional dialogue, legal certainty and caution before making accusations.
Noboa Brings Trade And Security Agenda To Mercosur Summit In Paraguay
President Daniel Noboa is leading Ecuador’s delegation to the Mercosur and associated-states summit in Paraguay, with an agenda centered on trade, economic integration and regional security cooperation.
Ecuador Exporters See Single-Digit First-Half Growth As Costs Rise
Fedexpor expects Ecuador export growth to remain in single digits for the first half of 2026 as input costs, logistics constraints and weaker cacao shipments offset banana gains.
Ecuador Power Bottleneck Extends To Transmission As 29 Priority Works Wait
Ecuador’s electricity constraint is not only generation. CENACE has identified 29 priority transmission and subtransmission projects, while several substations operate close to capacity and demand keeps rising.
Portoviejo Allocates USD 595,000 To LiDAR-Led Hojas-Jaboncillo Cultural Project
Portoviejo plans a USD 595,000 first-phase investment in Plan Huella Cultural, using LiDAR to identify structures at Cerro Hojas-Jaboncillo in Manabí. The project links heritage restoration, destination development and municipal capital spending.
Ecuador Credit Card Base Reaches 4.63M Active Cards As First-Time Users Rise
Ecuador’s credit card market expanded in 2025, with 4.63 million cards recording consumption and more than 61,000 first-time cardholders. The data points to deeper formal credit penetration, though household leverage and bank underwriting quality remain key indicators.
Progen-Celec Contract Scrutiny Expands As Pre-Award Lobbying Timeline Emerges
Progen’s activities before winning major Celec contracts are drawing renewed scrutiny after Primicias reported a pre-award timeline of meetings and moves involving energy-sector figures. The issue keeps emergency generation procurement in focus for contractors, lenders and policy watchers.
Ecuador Excludes Exploration From 2026 Mining Fee, Projects USD 44.04M In Revenue
Ecuador updated its 2026 mining supervision and control fee methodology to exclude exploration and economic-evaluation concessions. The government projects USD 44.04 million in total revenue, including metallic concessions, processing plants, non-metallic concessions and commercial licenses.
Ecuador Poultry Exports Top 4,300 Tons Since 2023 as Industry Targets China
Ecuador has exported more than 4,300 metric tons of chicken since entering the market in 2023, according to industry figures cited by El Universo. The sector is targeting China and Central America while domestic annual chicken output stands near 564,497 tons.
El Nino Raises 2026 Operating Risk For Ecuador Cacao, Banana And Rice Producers
Ecuador’s agricultural exporters are preparing for El Nino exposure across cacao, rice and bananas. Cacao represented USD 4.5 billion for the economy in 2025 and supports 250,000 families across about 600,000 planted hectares, while rice production is concentrated in flood-prone lowland zones.
Ecuador Mortgage Ceiling Falls to 10.19% as Market Rates Move Lower
Ecuador’s maximum mortgage rate fell to 10.19% in June 2026, down 0.92 percentage points from a year earlier. Primicias reports average private-bank mortgage rates of 7.35%, Biess program rates as low as 2.99%, and Tu Casa Miti-Miti loans at a fixed 4.99%.
Ecuador Households Now Use 10 Retail Channels as Price Pressure Shapes Demand
Ecuadorian households now use 10 retail channels, up from six before the pandemic, according to Expreso. The shift reflects pressure from households living on USD 513 or less per month and a basic family basket listed at USD 828.97.
El Niño Could Add Up to 1.85 Points to Ecuador Inflation and Raise 2027 Cost Risks
Expreso reports El Niño 2026-2027 is active and could add up to 1.85 percentage points to Ecuador’s inflation. The food-price impact may arrive two to six months after the climate event, while hydropower risk remains part of the macro watchlist.
Biess Lists Property Auctions From July as Distressed Assets Move Through Coactive Processes
Biess has property auctions beginning in July 2026, including apartments from USD 23,000 and Quito houses from USD 26,000. Primicias says the assets come from coactive collection processes and are listed through the Biess Remates platform.
Ecuador Cuts Mining-Fee Revenue Forecast to USD 44M as Exploration Is Excluded
Ecuador reduced its projected annual mining-fee revenue from USD 220 million to USD 44 million after excluding exploration-stage concessions from the control fee. The revised framework, in force from June 26, adds 300 mineral-processing plants and recalibrates payment timing for 2026.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade Fell to USD 700M During Tariff Dispute, Recovery Seen at 75%
Ecuador-Colombia trade fell to USD 700 million in January-April 2026 from USD 888 million a year earlier during a four-month tariff dispute. Commercial flows are recovering after tariff removal, but Tulcán chamber leadership estimates normalization may still take 30 to 40 days.
Ecuador Fuel Band Pushes Diesel to USD 3.25 and Extra Gasoline to USD 3.31 in June
Diesel reached USD 3.25 per gallon and Extra gasoline reached USD 3.31 in June 2026 under Ecuador’s monthly fuel-price band system. The adjustment mechanism remains a cost variable for logistics, transport and consumer inflation exposure.
Ecuador Oil Output Falls 1.5% In January-May 2026
Ecuadorian crude production fell 1.5% between January and May 2026, according to Primicias. The decline keeps energy-sector execution and Petroecuador output central to fiscal monitoring for the rest of the year.
Ecuador-Argentina Auto Deal Would Cut Import Tariff to 10%
Ecuador and Argentina have completed negotiations on an automotive trade agreement that would lower the tariff on Argentine vehicles entering Ecuador from 28% to 10%. The measure could reshape import pricing, competition and regional supply-chain positioning in Ecuador’s auto sector.
Assembly Orders 30-Day Review Of Progen Fund Transfers
The National Assembly unanimously ordered a review into the destination and route of funds transferred by Progen, with a 30-day report deadline. The case adds governance risk around public contracting and power-sector procurement.
Colombia Power Sales Could Cut Ecuador's Dry-Season Deficit to 850 MW
Colombia could resume electricity sales to Ecuador after publishing a June 7 draft resolution, but supply is uncertain from November 2026 into early 2027. Primicias reports that Colombian imports could reduce Ecuador's severe dry-season deficit from roughly 1,300 MW to 850 MW if the 450 MW interconnection is available.
BDE Places USD 100M Green Bond as Public Banking Enters Market
Banco de Desarrollo del Ecuador issued USD 100 million in green bonds in its first securities-market operation of this type. The issue drew 125% demand, with 80% bought by the private sector, and is intended to finance environmental infrastructure projects.
EV Import Delays Hit Ecuador as RoRo Capacity Tightens
Ecuador sold 4,019 electric vehicles in the first five months of 2026, more than triple the prior-year level, with BYD accounting for 39% of the segment. Primicias reports that RoRo shipping space for Ecuador has fallen around 30%, creating delivery delays for BYD and other Asia-sourced brands.
LATAM Adds Quito-Santiago Route With 35,000 Annual Seats
LATAM opened sales for a direct Quito-Santiago route that will begin in December 2026 with four weekly flights. El Universo reports that the service will add about 35,000 seats per year and reduce travel times by one and a half to three hours versus connecting options.
Ecuador Auto Assembly Triples to 6,647 Units as Argentina Deal Draws Industry Pushback
Ecuador’s three remaining vehicle assemblers produced 6,647 units from January through April 2026, nearly triple the 2,438 units assembled in the same period of 2025. Industry leadership says the pending Argentina agreement is asymmetric because it lowers Ecuador’s export tariff by only five points while cutting Argentina’s import tariff by 18 points.
Ecuador Unemployment Falls to 3.1% as Informal Employment Holds at 52.8%
Ecuador’s unemployment rate fell from 4.1% in May 2025 to 3.1% in May 2026, equivalent to about 86,000 fewer unemployed people. The business signal is mixed: adequate employment reached 36.6%, but informal employment still covered 52.8% of employed workers.
Ecuador SME Credit Rises 12% as Cooperatives and BanEcuador Drive Placement
Ecuadorian SME credit placement rose about 12% from January through May 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Cooperatives and public banking, especially BanEcuador, accounted for 70% of the increase, while private banks represented 30%.
Petroecuador Lobo Field Reaches 2,300 bpd After 20-Year Drilling Gap
Petroecuador restarted drilling activity at the Lobo field in Block 7 after more than 20 years without new wells. The mature-field program lifted production from about 500 bpd to more than 2,000 bpd, reaching a 2,300 bpd peak in the first half of 2026.
Ecuador Collected USD 149M From Colombia Tariff, Raising Refund-Claim Exposure
Ecuador collected USD 149 million from the security tariff imposed on Colombian imports between February and May 2026. The tariff reached 100% in May before being eliminated on June 1, creating potential refund-claim exposure after CAN ordered both countries to lift reciprocal trade measures.
Ecuador Companies Face Autogeneration Deadline as Dry-Season Deficit Could Reach 1,300 MW
Ecuadorian companies are accelerating private power investments ahead of the October 2026 dry season, when the generation deficit could reach 1,300 MW. Large consumers face a six-month deadline under Executive Decree 32, while industry groups estimate private-sector autogeneration capacity at 300-400 MW, much of it emergency-grade.
Petroecuador USD 5.3M Refinery Payment Raises Procurement-Control Risk
A Petroecuador payment of more than USD 5.3 million to Consorcio Torre VL-V1 is now a governance-risk case for Ecuador’s hydrocarbons sector. Prosecutors said the payment was tied to alleged work at the Esmeraldas Refinery, but Sercop and Finance records reportedly showed no matching contract or payment registration.
Rice Producers Warn El Niño Could Affect Up to 80,000 Hectares
Ecuador’s rice and cacao sectors are mapping production exposure ahead of a possible El Niño event. Rice producers cite 40,000-50,000 hectares affected in a regular winter and potential exposure of 70,000-80,000 hectares depending on event intensity, while cacao exporters are watching disease and post-harvest risk.
Sierra-Coast Logistics Corridor Restricted Through June 28
Traffic restrictions on the Balbanera-Pallatanga-Cumandá road run from June 22 to June 28, 2026 as rehabilitation work proceeds on seven sections. The corridor connects Ecuador’s central Sierra with the Coast and supports passenger, agricultural and heavy-cargo movement between provinces including Chimborazo and Guayas.
Starbucks Targets Nine Ecuador Stores With Guayaquil-Daule Expansion
Starbucks is preparing stores at Mall del Sol in Guayaquil and El Dorado in La Aurora, Daule, moving its Ecuador footprint beyond Quito. Sector sources estimate openings between July and August 2026, which would lift the chain to nine stores after USD 5.4M in 2025 sales.
MAGP Offers 100% Debt Remission for Artisanal Fishing Port Leases
Ecuador’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries announced 100% remission of selected lease-related debts for artisanal fishers and popular-solidarity economy organizations. The benefit applies to users in Esmeraldas, Anconcito, Jaramijó, San Mateo, Santa Rosa, Cojimíes and Bajo Alto.
Quito COE Reviews El Niño Water Plan as Blanco Chico Repairs Target 700 L/s
Quito’s metropolitan emergency committee is reviewing an El Niño contingency plan focused on water reserves, Papallacta supply and fire risk. The Blanco Chico recovery project is expected to restore 700 liters per second at an approximate cost of USD 700,000.
Decevale-Isspol Judgment Orders USD 693M Repair Payment
A tribunal convicted six defendants in the Decevale case and ordered a USD 693M repair payment to Isspol. The case began with 2020 complaints from Superintendencia de Compañías, Valores y Seguros against Decevale S.A. and Citadel Casa de Valores over alleged market-operations irregularities.
UAFE Freezes Progen-Linked Accounts as USD 104M Generator Case Widens
Ecuador’s UAFE has frozen funds in accounts associated with private actors linked to the Progen generator-contract case. The government says investigators are tracing USD 104M paid to Progen, including 89 transactions and a reported USD 15.2M transfer to Astrobryxa.
SuperCías Information-Access Reform Raises Corporate Confidentiality Risk
Ecuador’s Superintendencia de Compañías is working on reforms to the Companies Law that could expand shareholder access to corporate information regardless of ownership percentage. Business lawyers and chambers warn that the measure needs safeguards to protect strategic, contractual, tax, labor and customer data.
Ecuador Invests More Than USD 3M in Irrigation Across 525 Hectares
Ecuador has invested more than USD 3M in seven technified irrigation projects covering 525 hectares. The program directly benefits 517 agricultural producers and indirectly supports more than 2,000 people, with the government targeting productivity, climate resilience and financing access for small and medium producers.
Guayaquil Airport Keeps Flights Operating After Security Event Restricts Access
Guayaquil’s airport remained operational for scheduled domestic and international flights after a June 17 shooting outside the terminal. The business impact was concentrated in access control, passenger flow and security operations rather than immediate flight cancellations.
ARCOM Proposes Cutting Mining-Fee Target to USD 44M and Excluding Exploration
ARCOM is circulating a reform to Ecuador’s mining supervision fee that would cut projected collection by roughly 80%, from USD 221.75M to USD 44M. The proposal would exclude initial exploration, advanced exploration and economic evaluation projects, addressing one of the mining sector’s main investment-cost objections.
Ecuador Security Decree Targets Areas With 2,648 Homicides in Four Months
Ecuador’s new state of exception concentrates military and police intervention in ten provinces and three cantons that registered 2,648 of 2,778 national homicides from January through April. Guayas alone accounted for 1,223 violent deaths, making the decree material for port, logistics, mining and urban operating-risk analysis.
Contraloría Rule Would Allow Classified Audit Files to Be Destroyed After 30 Days
Ecuador’s National Assembly approved a rule allowing the Contraloría to destroy classified state documents within 30 calendar days after audit reports are final and executed. The reform changes the governance and audit-trail environment for classified public-sector information, with civil-society groups asking the Executive to veto the provision.
Petroecuador Output Reaches 365,973 bpd, Still Below June Plan
Petroecuador highlighted 370,197 BOE/d on June 15, its best level in recent months, but the number includes crude and natural gas. Crude output was 365,973.40 bpd, below the June plan of 376,223.01 bpd and still short of the production recovery needed for fiscal and export targets.
SEPS Data Show 38 Credit Cooperatives in Forced Liquidation as Delinquency Exceeds 8%
SEPS data show 38 Ecuadorian credit cooperatives were in forced liquidation as of May 5, 2026. Ambato accounted for 36.8% of the cases, Quito 26.3% and Cuenca 21.1%, with sector delinquency above 8% versus roughly 3% in private banking.
Oil Drop May Cut Ecuador Subsidy Cost Before Fuel Prices Fall
WTI fell 4.9% to USD 80.75 per barrel after an announced U.S.-Iran agreement, but Ecuador fuel prices are not expected to decline immediately. Current subsidies are USD 1.60 per gallon for diesel, USD 1.62 for Ecopais and USD 1.02 for Extra, making the fiscal account the first transmission channel.
Housing Reservations Rise 28% as Ecuador Builders Target 40,000 Units
Ecuador net housing reservations rose 28% from January to April 2026 versus the same period in 2025, the strongest annual increase in at least three years. Builders are targeting 40,000 units or more for the year, supported by USD 362 million in unsubsidized mortgage credit and USD 113 million through Miti-Miti.
IVA Refund Dispute Reaches Constitutional Court as SRI Refunds Fall 28.5%
A retirees group has taken IVA refund delays to Ecuador’s Constitutional Court after a rejected protection action in Pichincha. The dispute comes as SRI cash tax refunds reached USD 134.5 million from January to April 2026, down 28.5% from the same period in 2025.
Ecuador Seeks 100% Mine Self-Generation in Cascabel and Mirador II Renegotiations
Ecuador is seeking contract addenda for the Cascabel and Mirador II copper projects, with power self-generation as a critical condition. The government wants new mines to cover 100% of their power demand as industrial mining could add at least 4,468 MW of electricity demand by 2035.
BanEcuador Sets USD 253M El Nino Credit and Relief Buffer
BanEcuador says it has USD 253 million available for credit, refinancing and relief measures tied to a possible El Nino event. The bank estimates up to USD 13 million in loans could face repayment risk, with agriculture identified as the most exposed sector.
Ecuador Adds 7,364 Hectares of Water-Protection Areas in Loja
Ecuador formalized the Gonzanama and Sanguillin water-protection areas in Calvas, Loja, covering 7,364.35 hectares. The declarations are framed around forest, water-source and wildlife conservation, with direct water-quality relevance for 7,829 residents.
Quito Bicentenario Road Plan Could Affect 15 of 103 Park Hectares
A Quito road-extension proposal would prolong Amazonas, Real Audiencia and Rafael Aulestia through the Bicentenario Park area. One council member said the plan includes 2.2 km and 2.5 km road sections and could affect 15 of the park's 103 hectares.
Finance and Mining Lead Ecuador 2025 Utilities as Net Profit Hits USD 10.017B
A corporate-utilities ranking based on Superintendencia de Companias data put Ecuador 2025 net utility at USD 10.017 billion. Financial and insurance activities led by sector share, followed by mining, commerce and manufacturing.
Petroecuador Controls PK105 Pipeline Spill, Says Fuel Supply Normal
Petroecuador said a fuel leak in La Union, Quininde, was allegedly caused by a clandestine perforation on the Esmeraldas-Santo Domingo polyduct at PK105. The company said the leak was controlled before 11:00 and national fuel supply continued normally.
Triple A Testimony Puts $100M Diesel-Subsidy Case Back in Focus
A protected witness in the Triple A and Goleada proceedings described how subsidized diesel allegedly moved through an unauthorized resale mechanism. The testimony puts Ecuador fuel-subsidy controls, Petroecuador sales, ARCH oversight and offshore invoicing back in the business-risk frame.
Senae Seizes Counterfeit Ecuador Jerseys in Customs Control
Senae said counterfeit Ecuador national-team shirts were detected during a control on a parcel truck attempting to bring merchandise into the country. The agency framed the action as part of its work against contraband and falsified products.
ARCOM Attack in Machala Raises Risk Around El Oro Mining Controls
An explosive attack affected the ARCOM office in Machala on the night of June 12, 2026. Authorities linked the incident to 88 illegal-mining operations in El Oro, adding a security-risk layer to mining enforcement in one of Ecuador's active control zones.
Ecuador June Fixed-Term Deposit Average Rate Slips to 5.29%
Ecuador's average passive effective rate for fixed-term deposits reached 5.29% in June 2026, down from 5.34% in May and 5.40% in April. Listed rates ranged from 4.31% for 30-60 days to 6.45% for terms of 360 days or more.
CONAFIPS to Mobilize $155M for Farmers and Young Entrepreneurs
CONAFIPS will mobilize up to $155 million in productive financing through a credit-incentive program for young entrepreneurs and small farmers. Official projections point to approximately 30,000 small farmers and 8,000 young-led ventures as beneficiaries.
Ecuador Sets 655-Salary License Rule for Sports-Betting Operators
President Daniel Noboa issued a new regulation to Ecuador's sports law with requirements for sports-betting operators. The rules include licenses valid for up to five years and an annual payment equivalent to 655 basic salaries within the first 20 days of each license year.
Esmeraldas I 125 MW Thermal Plant to Remain Offline for 9-12 Months
Esmeraldas I, a 125 MW thermal plant, will remain out of operation for nine months to one year after a June 5 cooling-tower fire during maintenance. Energy Minister Juan Carlos Blum said Ecuador could face a 1,300 MW deficit in a critical 2026-2027 dry-season scenario, while an external consultant placed potential shortfall risk as high as 2,640 MW under lower hydro generation.
Novacero Plans $180M Investment in Two 50 MW Mini-Hydro Plants
Novacero plans two 50 MW mini-hydroelectric projects with combined investment of $180 million as Ecuador pushes high-voltage users to install their own generation by end-2026. The company already operates a 4.23 MW solar park in Guayaquil and plans additional panels in Guayaquil and Quito while trying to cover a 38 MW peak load at its Lasso plant.
BIESS Offers Three Mortgage-Debt Options as 2026 Credit Target Reaches $5.8B
BIESS reminded affiliates, retirees and pensioners that mortgage borrowers have three alternatives for payment problems: refinancing, restructuring and novation. The bank targets $5.8 billion in 2026 credit placements after placing $5.0986 billion in 2025, including $479 million in mortgage loans across 7,816 operations.
Ecuador Plans Temporary ICE Cut for Moderate Alcoholic Beverages During World Cup
President Daniel Noboa announced a temporary elimination of ICE on moderate alcoholic beverages, including beer, during the 2026 World Cup period. Noboa said beer prices would fall by more than 20% and that the measure would remain in force until July 19, though implementation details were still pending.
CELEC Awards $59.2M Diesel Rental for 45 MW at Santa Elena
CELEC awarded a $59.2 million diesel-generation rental contract for 45 MW at the Santa Elena plant, nearly $13 million below the reference budget. The award went to Comercial Laeisz Honduras after seven offers and Sercop observations over the public-procurement process.
Ecuador Plans Emergency Contracting Committee as Erosion Threatens Coca Codo
Ecuador will form an emergency committee to accelerate works tied to regressive erosion on the Coca River, which threatens Coca Codo Sinclair’s water-intake structures. The hydro plant supplies about 25% of national electricity demand and cost more than $2 billion.
CAN Countries Discuss Single Andean Sky After 40M International Passengers in 2024
Andean Community countries discussed a “single Andean sky” proposal at the IV Andean Air Transport Forum in Quito. The subregion moved 40 million international passengers in 2024, including 6.47 million passengers traveling between CAN countries.
Orellana Illegal-Mining Operation Destroys Equipment Worth Estimated $1.2M
A military operation in Orellana caused an estimated $1.2 million loss to illegal mining structures, according to the Defense Ministry. The intervention destroyed camps, excavators, suction motors, classifiers, generators and 2,660 gallons of fuel.
Petroecuador Adds Output at Sacha and Auca as State Production Hits 364,233 Bpd
Petroecuador added new well output at Sacha and Auca, with state production reaching 364,233 barrels per day on June 8. Sacha produced 72,811 bpd, about 20% of Petroecuador output, while Auca produced 61,007 bpd, about 17%.
Colombia Removes 30% Tariffs on Ecuadorian Goods After CAN Dispute
Colombia removed the 30% reciprocal tariffs on selected Ecuadorian goods through Decree 0583, derogating Decree 170 of February 20, 2026. Rice tariffs will be dismantled within 45 days as customs controls are strengthened along the southern border.
Ecuador Checks Fuel Chain as Esmeraldas Refinery Recovers to Nearly 90%
Ecuador is verifying fuel inventories, dispatches and station operations before the June 12 monthly price update. Authorities say Esmeraldas refinery recovery lifted capacity from 40% to nearly 90% after a $15.7 million repair effort.
World Cup Demand Could Lift Ecuador June Sales to $25.609B
Ecuador's June sales are estimated at $25.609 billion, up 10.1% from $23.269 billion in June 2025. Commerce alone is projected at $10.701 billion, up 14%, as World Cup demand flows through restaurants, bars, sports retail, electronics, delivery and telecoms.
Ecuador VAT Revenue Reaches $4.068B Through April
Ecuador collected $4.068 billion in VAT from January through April 2026, up 15% from $3.549 billion a year earlier. VAT represented about 46.5% of total tax revenue, while internal sales reached $53.903 billion in January-March, up 12%.
Petroecuador Restructuring Plan Points to Mixed-Capital Model
Ecuador's energy ministry is evaluating a mixed-capital model for Petroecuador that would maintain state control while opening up to private investment. The concept would require legal reform and could allow private participation up to 49%, with 51% under state control.
Agricominsa Cleared to Acquire Plásticos Ecuatorianos Assets
The Superintendence of Economic Competition authorized Agricominsa to acquire assets linked to the productive and commercial activities of Plásticos Ecuatorianos S.A. The transaction covers a packaging company founded in Guayaquil in 1967 and linked to Tonicorp.
World Cup Demand Pushes Ecuador Fashion Retail Beyond Jerseys
Ecuador's World Cup apparel demand is expanding beyond sports jerseys into guayaberas, polos, blazers, suits and casual wear. Pical sold more than 500 licensed Tri polo shirts across 39 stores, while Guayaberas Orellana launched a $50 guayamisa.
Port Reform Targets 12,000 Abandoned Containers in Ecuador
Ecuador is advancing a COPCI reform to reduce an annual backlog of more than 12,000 abandoned containers in national ports. The retained cargo is valued at about $450 million, with average waits of 365 days and some immobilized goods stored for more than 18 years.
OIM Opens SME Fund Offering Up to $40,000 in Ecuador
The OIM Enterprise Development Fund opened a call for SMEs in Quito, Guayaquil, Cuenca, Manta, Ambato and Ibarra. Selected companies may receive $20,000 to $40,000 for expansion, innovation, productive strengthening and job creation.
Arcamia Opens Cumbaya Concept Store After 20% Sales Growth
Arcamia opened a new Experience-format store in Cumbaya after annual sales reached $1.8 million, up 20% from 2024. The company currently operates seven stores in Quito and Cuenca and says it is evaluating expansion to additional Ecuadorian cities in 2026.
Ecuador Air Travel Remains at 0.45 Trips Per Capita
Ecuador recorded 0.45 air trips per capita in 2025, below Peru, Colombia, Mexico and Chile. IATA figures show upside in the market, with Ecuador posting 11.1% growth in routes, 0.9% in frequencies and 13.4% in seats.
U.S. Proposes 10% Tariff Measure for Ecuador
The United States is proposing a 10% tariff measure for Ecuador as part of a Section 301 review covering 60 economies and forced-labor import enforcement. Ecuador's current 10% U.S. surcharge expires July 24, making the new measure a potential replacement rather than a separate short-term shock.
BIESS Quirografario Loans Reach $1.963B Placement
BIESS has placed $1.963 billion in quirografario consumer loans through 1.18 million operations. The product offers up to $38,560 depending on reserve-fund and severance guarantees, with repayment terms of up to 60 months.
Cyber Monday Ecuador Targets Up to $1.6B in June Sales
Ecuador's June Cyber Monday campaign is projected to move between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion in associated sales. The Chamber of Commerce of Guayaquil expects more than 700,000 visits, with more than 30 companies participating from June 8 to 14.
LATAM Ecuador to Distribute 6M Paccari Minibars Annually
LATAM Airlines Ecuador will distribute about 6 million Paccari chocolate minibars per year through its international onboard service. The partnership places the Ecuadorian brand on more than 25 routes connecting Europe, Oceania, the United States and Africa.
State Transfers $927M to IESS Pension Subsidy Through May
Ecuador transferred $927 million to IESS for the state 40% pension contribution from January through May 2026. The figure equals 34.53% of the $2.684 billion coded annual budget, with $306.5 million recognized but not yet paid.
Ecuador Country Risk Falls Below 400 for First Time Since 2014
Ecuador's country-risk indicator fell to 396 points on June 3, its lowest level since October 2014. The measure is down 96 points since the start of 2026 and 1,620 points since President Daniel Noboa took office.
Powerchina Coca Codo Contract Now Expected by December
Ecuador now expects the Powerchina operating contract for Coca Codo Sinclair by December, later than the July timing previously expected. The 25-year contract would pay $47 million per year for operation of the 1,500 MW hydro plant.
Consumer Credit Expansion Drives Ecuador Auto-Sales Rebound
Ecuador's consumer-credit volume rose from $1.628 billion to $2.238 billion from January through April, a 37.4% increase. Auto-sector leaders say financing supports about 60% of new-vehicle sales and is driving the 2026 rebound.
Ecuador Budget Revenue Rises $2.303B Through May
Ecuador collected $12.220 billion in state-budget revenue through May 2026, $2.303 billion more than in the same period of 2025. Oil receipts nearly tripled to $1.239 billion, while tax collection supplied 65% of total income.
Tanergy Group Wins $13.16M Ecuador Diesel-Generation Lease
Celec awarded a $13.16 million contract for 10 MW of diesel generation at Guangopolo to Tanergy Group. The contract is the first award from an April thermal-rental package designed to reduce dry-season power risk in late 2026.
SRI Adds 70 Import Subheadings to Reduced ISD List
Ecuador’s SRI updated the list of import tariff subheadings eligible for a reduced 2.5% ISD rate. Fedexpor identified 70 new subheadings added to the preferential list and 17 subheadings removed.
Ecociencia Identifies 111 Mining-Affected Hectares in Protected Areas
Ecociencia identified 111 hectares affected by mining inside protected and conservation areas in Zamora Chinchipe. The report monitored four case studies from 2011 to 2025 and points to enforcement pressure in Ecuador’s southern Amazon mining corridor.
Fuel Bands Point to Another Ecuador Price Increase From June 12
Ecuador's June 12 fuel adjustment is likely to move higher, Primicias reports. The outlet cited a $0.23/gal May increase in Ecuador's gasoline reference, WTI at $92.16/bbl on June 1, and projected local prices of about $3.31/gal for gasoline and $3.25/gal for diesel under the 5% band cap.
Colombia Import Tariff Refund Exposure Could Reach $254M
Ecuador may face refund claims tied to the Colombia import security charge, Primicias reports. A former SENAE legal director estimated approximately $220.9M in tariff collections plus about $33M in additional IVA, implying a potential $254M exposure before interest.
Energy Minister Says Cascabel Mining Contract Will Be Renegotiated
Ecuador's energy minister said the Cascabel exploitation contract will be renegotiated, Primicias reports. The project carries a 33-year mine-life plan, approximately $4.2B in expected investment, a 4,979-hectare concession and Chinese control after Jiangxi Copper's SolGold acquisition.
Auca 141H Adds 2,568 Bpd to Orellana Oil Output
A new horizontal well at Auca is producing 2,568 bpd, Primicias reports. The Block 61 field averages 60,000 bpd, has more than 580 drilled wells and is operated by Shaya, an SLB affiliate.
Ecuador Has Gone Three Months Without Domestic Premium Diesel Output
Ecuador has gone three months without producing premium diesel, Primicias reports. Imports rose 70.97% year over year in March and 98.58% in April while import prices reached $165.45 and $183.43 per barrel, respectively.
Ecuador Carbon-Market Technical Rule Enters Force
Ecuador's Ministry of Environment and Energy has put the ARTTRM technical rule into force, El Universo reports. The framework is designed to support participation in international carbon markets and channel investment into mitigation projects in energy, industry, waste and agriculture.
Banco Pichincha Reports 6.5M Customers and 82% Digital Transactions
Banco Pichincha says it now serves more than 6.5 million customers, equal to 37% of Ecuador's population, El Universo reports. The bank cites 82% digital transactions, $14.1 billion in productive-credit portfolio and $1.5 billion in sustainable project financing.
May 2026
MAE Sets Oil-Production Roadmap Around Stabilization, Private Marginal Fields
Ecuador's Ministry of Environment and Energy has outlined a roadmap to stabilize crude output and bring private operators into marginal fields, El Universo reports. Petroecuador production fell 2.55% in the first four months of 2026, while national fiscalized output averaged 458,732 bpd.
Plasticaucho Targets Football and Running With 50,000-Pair Venus Launch
Plasticaucho is expanding the Venus brand into football and running footwear, Primicias reports. The Ambato manufacturer is targeting at least 50,000 pairs in the first year after reporting $102.4 million in 2025 sales and $5.5 million in net profit.
MAGP Pushes Social-Security Affiliation for Artisanal Fishers
Ecuador's government is expanding social-security affiliation efforts for artisanal fishers, El Universo reports. Seguro Social Campesino records show 5,743 affiliated fishers in Manabi, Guayas and Santa Elena, with two 2026 campaigns in Manta and Jaramijo.
Ecuador Moves to Eliminate Colombia Security Tariff From June 1
Ecuador plans to eliminate the security tariff on Colombian imports from June 1, Primicias reports. The tariff had reached 100%, while Colombia imposed 35%-75% tariffs on about 191 Ecuadorian products and halted electricity sales.
Ciauto Plans $70M 2026 Investment as Ecuador Auto Assembly Rebalances
Ciauto plans to invest $70 million in 2026 despite concern over Ecuador's automotive agreement with Argentina, Primicias reports. The Ambato assembler produced 2,992 vehicles in the first quarter, or 61% of local industry output.
Ecuador Rice Prices Fall to Five-Year Low After Colombia Trade Rupture
Ecuador's rice sector is facing its worst price level in five years, Primicias reports. Corpnoarroz says the Colombia trade rupture blocked a market that absorbed about 100,000 tons of annual Ecuadorian surplus.
Coca Codo Erosion Risk Rises Ahead of June-July Amazon Rain Peak
June and July historically bring the Coca River's highest flows, increasing risk around Coca Codo Sinclair's intake works, Primicias reports. The regressive-erosion front remained 3.6 km from the intake in the latest published report before the May 21 dike damage.
Programmed Power Cuts Cover 54 Cities in 15 Provinces With User Compensation
Ecuador will apply scheduled electricity cuts in 54 cities across 15 provinces during two consecutive weekends, Primicias reports. Energy Minister Juan Carlos Blum said the work is tied to preventive maintenance and system strengthening ahead of a possible El Nino event.
SRI Makes IVA Declarations Valid Only With Payment Starting June 1
Ecuador's tax authority will require IVA declaration and payment to occur simultaneously from June 1, Primicias reports. Late filing can trigger a 3% penalty on the amount due or 0.1% of gross sales or income when no IVA is determined.
Millicom Plans Tigo Brand Consolidation for Movistar and Tuenti in Ecuador
Millicom's Ecuador transition is moving toward a single Tigo brand, Primicias reports. The company completed the $380 million acquisition of Telefónica's Ecuador mobile operations on October 30, 2025.
Cerro Azul Order Tests Ecuador Mining Cadastre Reopening After Eight-Year Freeze
Ecuador's mining cadastre reopening moved back into focus after a ministerial agreement tied to Cerro Azul, Primicias reports. The order directs Arcom to begin a gradual and progressive opening for small mining of aggregates and stone materials in the Guayaquil-Daule-Samborondon corridor.
Petroecuador Output Falls to 356,867 Bpd During High-WTI Window
Petroecuador produced 356,867 barrels per day in April 2026, down 17,733 bpd year over year, Primicias reports. The decline occurred while WTI averaged $97 per barrel during the three-month conflict-driven price window.
BlaBlaCar Enters Ecuador as Carpooling Platform Across Intercity Mobility Market
BlaBlaCar has entered Ecuador as a carpooling platform, Primicias reports. The company says it is present in 21 countries and is expanding into eight Latin American markets, including Ecuador.
Ecumar EP to Emerge From Flopec-Astinave Fusion Under 180-Day Transition
Ecuador will merge Flopec and Astinave into Ecuador Maritimo Ecumar EP under a 180-day transition, El Universo and Primicias report. The new entity consolidates hydrocarbon transport, port logistics, shipbuilding, cabotage, foreign trade and technology functions inside a single maritime SOE.
SENAE Seeks $17.2M Palantir Foundry Renewal Through CNT
Ecuador's customs service is seeking a $17.2 million Palantir Foundry renewal, plus $2.6 million in IVA, through CNT, Primicias reports. SENAE argues non-renewal would affect customs-control processes, risk analysis, intelligence capacity and fiscal collection.
Assembly Begins SUCRE Exit Process With 20-Day Report Window
Ecuador's Assembly has begun processing the country's withdrawal from the SUCRE payment-compensation treaty, Primicias reports. The committee has 20 days to prepare a report and approval would require 77 votes in plenary.
Agriculture Ministry Cites $4M El Nino Insurance Budget and Additional Rice-Reserve Capacity
Ecuador's Agriculture Ministry has a $4 million budget for agricultural-insurance premiums tied to potential El Nino impacts, El Universo reports. Minister Juan Carlos Vega also said the government is seeking storage and budget for 20,000 additional tons of rice, requiring about $8 million more.
Automotive Sector Billing Rises 28.4% to $2.946B in Q1 2026
Ecuador's automotive sector billed $2.946 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up 28.4% from $2.296 billion in 2025, El Universo reports citing Aeade data. Vehicle commerce and repair accounted for $2.762 billion, while vehicle manufacturing contributed $187 million.
Ecuador Releases $98.9M in Sinohydro Guarantees After Coca Codo Handover
Ecuador released $98.9 million in pending guarantees to Sinohydro on May 8 after the April 17 definitive acceptance of Coca Codo Sinclair, Primicias reports. The state retains a $36 million distributor-performance guarantee as it negotiates a 25-year operating and maintenance agreement with PowerChina.
Ecuador Grid Losses Estimated at 1,200 MW as Deficit Pressure Persists
Ecuador loses an estimated 1,200 MW in transmission and distribution, roughly equal to the average power deficit the country is trying to cover, according to Primicias/Revista Gestion. The report frames grid modernization as a potentially faster capacity lever than new generation alone.
Transport Scrappage Program Registers 1,019 Operators as $28M Rest-Area Plan Advances
More than 1,000 transport operators have registered in Ecuador's vehicle renewal plans and 174 units have been removed from circulation, Primicias reports. The government also plans eight rest areas for heavy transport corridors with an estimated $28 million investment.
BIESS Returns 35 of 37 Closed Complementary Pension Funds to Original Administrators
BIESS restored administration of 35 of 37 closed complementary pension funds to their original administrators, El Universo reports. The process reduces administrative load tied to funds that the institution says had generated more than $500,000 in costs.
Faszina Says Ecuador Supplies 50% of Its Exotic-Fruit Import Volume
Spanish importer Faszina Selected says Ecuador represents 50% of its import volume and between 80 and 120 weekly pallets of exotic fruit, El Universo reports. The company distributes through Barcelona's Mercabarna and says Ecuadorian supply is regular and stable throughout the year.
Decreto 394 Allocates $10.5M Diesel Compensation for Industrial Fishing
Decreto 394 creates an extraordinary, temporary, targeted and conditioned mechanism for the industrial fishing sector after the diesel price increase. Primicias reports the total budget is $10.5 million, with eligibility tied to vessel registration, permits, fuel invoices, tax and employer obligations, verified fishing activity and MAGP technical rules.
CECA-13 Cacao Clone Reports 1.8-2.0 Tons/Ha Annual Yields in El Oro
El Universo reports that the CECA-13 cacao clone was launched May 20 in El Oro by researcher Erwin Cango. Reported yields in the development zone reached 1.8-2.0 tons per hectare per year, with evaluations in other areas indicating a possible 30-35 quintals per hectare depending on agronomic management.
Ecuador Lists 15+ Trade Agreements After $5.032B Non-Oil Surplus
Ecuador has more than 15 new trade agreements on its agenda after a $5.032 billion non-oil trade surplus in 2025, according to El Universo. The report also cites $29.402 billion in non-oil exports, 26 investment contracts worth more than $1.049 billion, and $623.22 million in business closings from international promotion.
Ecuador Overdue Collections Portfolio Rises to About $2.5B, Asocob Says
Ecuador's overdue financial-system portfolio managed by collection firms has risen from about $1.6 billion before Covid-19 to about $2.5 billion, according to Primicias reporting on Asocob. The association cites overindebtedness, labor instability and spending priorities as key factors behind household arrears.
Amazon Biocorridor Plan Mobilizes About $460M Over 17 Years
Expreso reports that President Daniel Noboa announced roughly $460 million for the Biocorredor Amazonico over 17 years. The initiative is meant to strengthen protected areas, improve management of more than 26 million hectares of natural heritage and reinforce Ecuador's park-ranger corps.
Decreto 390 Sets Electric-Sector Diesel at $0.8042/Gal as Thermal Fuel Rules Change
Decreto Ejecutivo 390 sets diesel for the electric sector at $0.8042 per gallon and establishes Fuel Oil 4 prices of $0.48 at Refinería La Libertad and $0.62 at other dispatch points. The reform takes effect from 00:00 on May 22, 2026.
CELEC Has No Awards Across 205 MW Emergency Thermal Rental Pipeline
CELEC's plan to contract 205 MW in rented thermal generation has not produced an award as of May 22. Primicias reports Pascuales, Jaramijó and Miraflores have already faced deserted processes while Santa Elena and Guangopolo remain delayed.
SRI Promotes 50%-75% Income-Tax Deduction for Youth Hiring
SRI is promoting an employer income-tax incentive that allows a 50% additional deduction for hiring workers aged 18-29, rising to 75% in specified education cases. Construction and agriculture employers may also apply a 75% additional deduction for new hires.
Marine-Coastal Law Creates Wave Registry and Rules for Ports, Tourism, Fishing and Energy
The National Assembly approved the Ley Orgánica de Gobernanza del Espacio Marino-Costero on May 21. Expreso reports the law creates a national registry for breaking-wave zones and regulates activities including fishing, tourism, port development and sea-linked energy projects.
Mining Fiscalization Fee Collects About $40M Versus $229M Target as Legal Challenges Advance
Ecuador's mining fiscalization fee has collected around $40 million, compared with a $229 million government target, according to Expreso. The Chamber of Mining argues the charge discourages investment and says constitutional claims are moving through the Court.
Campo Amistad Adds 3M Cubic Feet per Day, Lifting Gas Output to 27.6M Cubic Feet
Campo Amistad increased daily natural-gas production by 3 million cubic feet after work on Amistad 7, Primicias reports. Total output reached 27.6 million cubic feet, with Petroecuador planning additional interventions on wells 8, 14 and 9.
Mining Exports Reach $1.381B in Q1, With Fruta del Norte and Mirador at 75% of Value
Ecuadorian mining exports reached $1.381 billion through March 2026, up 65% year over year, according to Primicias. Fruta del Norte and Mirador represented 75% of mining export value in the quarter.
EV Sales Reach 3,124 Units in Jan-April as BYD Yuan Pro Enters Ecuador's Top Five Models
Ecuador sold 3,124 fully electric vehicles in the first four months of 2026, equal to 6.17% of the total new-vehicle market, according to Expreso. BYD Yuan Pro ranked fifth among all models with 834 units.
Mortgage Disbursements Rise 22% in Q1 as Ecuador Housing Demand Indicators Improve
Mortgage disbursements grew 22% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, according to Primicias. Housing sales rose 12.5% in January-February, project visits rose 16%, and net reservations rose 23%.
Cangrejos Gold Project Pays First $34M in Advance Royalties; Total Obligation Set at $54M
ODIN Mining confirmed payment of $34 million in advance royalties at contract signing for the Cangrejos gold project in El Oro. The company will pay $54 million in total, with remaining installments tied to plant construction, tailings facility construction and start of operations.
ARCH Opens Sanction Proceedings Against 18 Fuel Marketers Over 448 Station Stock Reports
Ecuador's hydrocarbons regulator opened sanction proceedings against 18 fuel marketers for not reporting stocks at 448 stations between May 9 and May 12. ARCH says the omissions obstruct dispatch management and service continuity; distributors argue the shortage was caused by government import logistics.
Decree 387 Reorients Ecuador Free Zones Toward Tech Services With 51% Presence Rule
President Daniel Noboa issued Decree 387 on May 18, reforming Ecuador's free-zone regulation to prioritize technology services and the knowledge economy. The decree authorizes tech activities, allows hybrid work, and sets a 51% monthly in-zone presence requirement unless technically justified otherwise.
CFN and IDB Sign $200M+ Credit Line for Ecuador SMEs, Targeting Amazon Bioeconomy Businesses
CFN and the IDB signed loan contracts on May 15 to channel more than $200 million to Ecuador's productive sector through the national financial system. The line targets SMEs, with resources oriented to Amazon bioeconomy businesses.
Comptroller Audit Finds $18.8M in Petroecuador Liabilities in Sacha Contract Liquidation
Ecuador's Comptroller approved a special examination assigning $18.8 million in civil and administrative responsibilities to Petroecuador over the liquidation of a Campo Sacha gas-compression contract. The audit cites unjustified retroactive interest and omitted collection of fines and receivables.
Ecuador Cacao Export Value Falls 63.5% in Q1 2026 to $441M as Prices Correct From 2024 Peak
Ecuadorian cacao export value dropped 63.5% year-on-year in Q1 2026 to $441 million from $1,208 million in Q1 2025. ANECACAO frames it as the long-anticipated correction of the 2024 price spike, not a demand problem, with the US, EU, Russia and Canada still the main destinations.
Only 36 of an Estimated 1,600 Ecuadorian Savings Boxes Are Compliant Before November 2026 SEPS Deadline
Ecuador's Superintendencia de Economía Popular y Solidaria reports only 36 community savings boxes have formalized, against an estimated 1,600 operating nationwide. The compliance deadline is November 2026, and informal third-party deposit-taking persists despite the ban.
Ecuador Funds $19.7M Compensation on April CNEL Electricity Bills for Consumption Up to 180 kWh
Ecuador will compensate $19.7 million on April electricity bills for CNEL customers consuming up to 180 kWh under Executive Decree 379. The measure covers about 1.83 million CNEL clients, with April bills delivered by email in the last two weeks of May.
Esmeraldas Refinery Restarts FCC Unit May 15; Gasoline and Domestic Gas Resume, Diesel Premium Deferred to June 2
Petroecuador restarted the Esmeraldas refinery's FCC unit on May 15, 2026, resuming domestic gas and gasoline production. Diesel premium output is deferred to June 2. Ecuador had been importing 65% of fuel demand during the outage that had the refinery at 41% of its 110,000 bpd capacity.
Noboa Cites 4% Growth, Sub-2% Inflation, Record 2025 FDI in CNN Interview — Claims Pending Independent Confirmation
In a CNN interview from Washington D.C., President Noboa cited 4% economic growth, inflation below 2%, a record for 2025 foreign direct investment, and poverty reduced to 21.4%. These are presidential talking points; Ecuador Brief flags them as claims to be reconciled against official BCE and INEC data.
Ecuador–Argentina AC59 Addendum to Cut Vehicle Tariff from 16.1% to 10%; Adefa Projects Market Share to 2%
An addendum to the AC59 economic complementation agreement will reduce Ecuador's import tariff on Argentine-made vehicles from 16.1% to 10%. Adefa projects volume could triple to ~3,000 units (≈2% of market). Signature is expected in the second half of June; the deal is technically and legally agreed.
Decreto 378 Extends Inter-Provincial Bus Subsidy to June 15; Urban Fare Pressure Builds Across Five Cities
Executive Decree 378, signed May 8, prorogues central government compensation payments to inter- and intra-provincial transport operators through June 15, 2026, pushing the fiscal and political fight over urban fares into mid-2026. Five major cities are at different stages of the same cost-recovery problem.
Bloque de Seguridad Militarizes Puerto Bolívar; 1,600-House Sweep Targets Drug Networks at Ecuador's Banana Export Hub
On May 14, 2026, Ecuador deployed its Bloque de Seguridad joint operation to Puerto Bolívar in El Oro province, with plans to search approximately 1,600 houses over the next three days. The port is a top channel for Ecuador's banana exports and has also been identified as a major cocaine transit point.
Ecuador and Morocco Sign JETCO Memorandum to Establish Joint Economic Committee; First Meeting in June, Business Council in Quito in September
Ecuador signed a memorandum with Morocco on May 12 establishing a Joint Economic and Commercial Committee (JETCO), with the inaugural session scheduled for June 2026 and a follow-on bilateral business council convening in Quito in September.
Plan Credicasa Delivers 125 Homes on May 12 at 2.99% Biess Mortgage Rate; $15M in Total Disbursements Across 300+ Loans
Ecuador's Plan Credicasa housing program delivered 125 additional homes on May 12, financed at 2.99% through Biess and developed in partnership with Ambiensa. The program has processed over 300 disbursements totaling $15 million, with 1,300+ pending applications nationally and 478 from Guayas province alone.
Ecuador's UAFE Launches Regional Anti-Money-Laundering Operation with Colombia and Peru; Quito, Guayaquil Airports, Huaquillas and Rumichaca Borders Targeted
Ecuador's Financial Analysis Unit (UAFE) activated its first regional anti-money-laundering operation of 2026 in coordination with Colombian and Peruvian counterparts, targeting the Quito and Guayaquil international airports and the Huaquillas and Rumichaca land borders.
Esmeraldas Refinery at 33-40% Capacity With FCC Unit Offline; Ecuador Now Imports 65% of Fuel Demand
Ecuador's Esmeraldas refinery is operating at 33-40% of its 110,000 bbl/d capacity with the critical FCC unit offline, forcing the country to import 65% of fuel demand. Diesel broke the $3/gallon threshold for the first time on May 12. Petroecuador targets an FCC restart on May 15.
Ecuador Banking Sector Posts $305M in Profits Through April; Credit Portfolio Reaches $53.4B at 12.8% Annual Growth
Ecuador's private banking sector recorded $305 million in combined profits through April 2026, with the total credit portfolio reaching $53.4 billion — a 12.8% annual increase. Deposits grew 13.4% to $62.7 billion. ROE hit 14%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels for the first time.
Government Expands 7x7 Credit Program by $100M, Opens BanEcuador Lending to Artisanal Fishers for First Time
Ecuador allocated an additional $100 million to the Crédito Productivo 7x7 program through BanEcuador, extending eligibility to artisanal fishers for the first time. The first phase distributed $100M across 9,341 operations. An estimated 11,500 fishers with 7,500 vessels are now eligible.
Ecuador's $1B May Bond Placement Drew $7B in Demand; Country Risk at 404 Points — Lowest Since 2014
Ecuador placed $1 billion in sovereign bonds on May 6 at an 8.5% annual rate, drawing $7 billion in demand from 200 international investors — a 7x oversubscription. Country risk has fallen from 1,908 points in April 2025 to 404 today, restoring market access after seven years.
Caso Progen: Judicial Documents Trace $110M Through Personal Accounts — 21 Individuals Face Embezzlement Charges May 14
Judicial documents in the Progen case reveal that USD 110 million in advance payments for 49 thermoelectric generators — none of which became operational — were distributed through personal accounts at the Federal Reserve and Regions Bank. Charges against 21 individuals are scheduled for May 14.
Aeropuerto de Cancún Acquires Indirect Control of Quiport Through Motiva Stake Purchase; Regulator Approves
Ecuador's Superintendencia de Competencia Económica approved the acquisition by Aeropuerto de Cancún S.A. de C.V. of 100% of Brazilian company Motiva's shares, granting the Mexican group indirect control of Corporación Quiport — operator of Quito's Mariscal Sucre International Airport.
Mother's Day Flower Exports Hit Record 24,800 MT (+16%); Quito Airport Rises to 4th in LatAm Cargo Rankings
Ecuador's Mother's Day flower export season set a new record at 24,800 metric tons over 21 days — a 16% increase over 2025. Avianca Cargo reported 55% growth in Ecuador operations. Quito's Mariscal Sucre airport climbed to 4th in Latin American cargo rankings.
CAN Resolution 2582 Orders Ecuador-Colombia Tariff Withdrawal Within 10 Business Days; Colombian Exports Already Down 60%
The Andean Community issued Resolution 2582 on May 7, ordering Ecuador and Colombia to withdraw reciprocal tariffs within 10 business days. The ruling declares both countries' measures incompatible with the Cartagena Agreement. With Ecuador's rate at 75% and Colombian exports down 60% through March, industry leaders on both sides call current conditions unsustainable.
Ecuador April Sales Reach $24.37B: Mining +28.6% to $977M, Energy +28.4%, Real Estate +28.4% as Amazon Provinces Lead Growth
Ecuador's April 2026 commercial sales reached $24.37 billion — 12.7% above April 2025 and 23% above 2024. Mining and quarrying led with $977.3 million (+28.6%), while energy supply and real estate each grew 28.4%. Amazon provinces posted the fastest growth, with Zamora Chinchipe surging 41.5%.
MAGP Deploys $42.4M Agricultural Technification Program: Drone-Assisted Farming, Irrigation for 3,288 Hectares, 1,670 Apiary Kits Across 23 Provinces
Ecuador's Ministry of Agriculture (MAGP) is deploying a $42.4 million program targeting small and mid-scale producers across 23 provinces. The three-component initiative covers technified irrigation for 3,288 hectares, drone and mechanization subsidies at 75% government cost, and a 1,670-kit beekeeping expansion through 2027.
Ecuador's Fuel Subsidy Band System Is Failing: Diesel Subsidies Hit $160M/Month as International Prices Surge
Ecuador's fuel band pricing system — designed to gradually eliminate subsidies — is producing the opposite effect. International diesel prices surged up to 66.8% in March 2026, but the system caps monthly increases at 5%, forcing the state to absorb a growing gap. Diesel subsidies alone now run approximately $160 million per month.
Energy Supply Brief: 270 MW Offline at Minas San Francisco, Karpowership Barge Renewal Stalled, New Minister's Corporate Ties Under Scrutiny
Ecuador's electricity supply margin tightened further this week as the 270 MW Minas San Francisco plant went offline for mandatory reservoir maintenance through May 16, while the Karpowership Emre Bey barge's contract renewal remains suspended by Sercop procurement objections. Meanwhile, new Energy Minister Juan Carlos Blum's shareholdings in a state-contracting consultancy raise governance questions.
Ecuador's Rice Sector in Crisis: Colombia Ban Creates 80,000-Ton Surplus as Farm-Gate Prices Collapse 38%
Colombia's rice import ban on February 24, 2026 eliminated Ecuador's dominant export destination — 90% of the exportable surplus — creating an estimated 80,000-metric-ton domestic glut. Farm-gate prices collapsed 38% as piladoras slashed purchasing rates. The government's $8 million emergency purchase covers only a quarter of the surplus.
Second Thermal Procurement Failure in Two Weeks: Celec Pascuales 50 MW Contract Declared Desert
Celec declared the 50 MW Pascuales thermal generation rental process desert on May 4, with all four bidders disqualified. Combined with the El Descanso III failure on April 27, Ecuador has lost 70 MW of planned emergency generation capacity ahead of the October dry season.
ASOTEP Assessment: Peru's Chancay Megaport Impact on Ecuador 'Indirect and Non-Substitutive'
Ecuador's Port Terminals Association (ASOTEP) assesses that Peru's Chancay megaport has created an 'indirect and non-substitutive' impact on Ecuadorian port operations, reconfiguring regional transshipment routes toward Asia rather than displacing Ecuadorian cargo directly.
Cenace Projects 18% Blackout Probability for October-March Dry Season
Ecuador's national grid operator Cenace has modeled an 18% probability of rolling blackouts during the October 2026-March 2027 dry season, driven by the loss of Colombian energy imports and recurring shutdowns at the Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant.
Ecuador Reduces Colombia Security Tariff From 100% to 75%, Effective June 1
Ecuador will lower its security tariff on Colombian imports from 100% to 75% starting June 1, 2026 — the first reduction since President Noboa initiated trade restrictions in February. Colombia's retaliatory tariffs on 191 Ecuadorian products remain in place.
Ecuador Purchases $8M in Domestic Rice as Colombia Export Channel Closes
The Ecuadorian government is purchasing 20,000 metric tons of domestic rice for $8 million under Executive Decree 307, after Colombia's February import ban eliminated the destination for 90% of Ecuador's rice exports and created a 190,000-ton surplus.
Petroecuador Deploys Hydraulic Fracturing in Block 57 as Production Slides to 2026 Low
Petroecuador has begun hydraulic fracturing operations in the Shushufindi Libertador field (Block 57, Sucumbíos) in partnership with Chinese service provider CCDC, targeting compact limestone formations for the first time. The move comes as the state operator's output fell to 364,876 barrels per day in March 2026 — its lowest level this year.
Agriculture Ministry Activates M Rice Purchase Program Across 4 Collection Centers
The Ministry of Agriculture (MAGP) opened four rice collection centers on May 4 in Guayas and Los Ríos, backed by million in BanEcuador financing. The program purchases paddy rice directly from 7,000 registered producers at (short-grain) to (long-grain) per 205-pound sack.
SENAE Cuts Duty-Free Liquor Allowance to 3 Liters, Citing 694,000-Liter Informal Trade Leak
Ecuador's National Customs Service (SENAE) reduced the per-traveler duty-free alcohol limit from 5 liters to 3 liters effective May 4, 2026. The agency estimates 694,000 liters entered duty-free in 2024 alone, with the majority diverted to informal commercial channels rather than personal consumption.
China-Ecuador FTA at Two Years: Non-Petroleum Trade Deficit Widens 467% as Chinese Imports Surge 30%
Two years after entering force, the China-Ecuador Free Trade Agreement has produced a dramatically lopsided result. Ecuador's non-petroleum trade deficit with China widened from $335 million in 2023 to $1.9 billion in 2025 — a 467% deterioration driven by a 30% surge in Chinese imports while export growth stalled at 4.4%.
Colombia Signs Decree 0455: Retaliatory Tariffs of 35–75% on Ecuadorian Products — Bilateral Trade Projected to Collapse
Colombia has signed Decree 0455 establishing retaliatory tariffs of 35%, 50%, and 75% on Ecuadorian imports, invoking national security provisions under the Cartagena Agreement and GATT Article XXI. Trade projections indicate a 75% decline in Colombian imports from Ecuador ($640M reduction) and a 79% decline in Colombian exports to Ecuador ($1.452B reduction).
SRI Limits Credit Note Use to 60% of Tax Obligations — 40% Cash Requirement Takes Effect May 1
Ecuador's tax authority has imposed a 60% cap on the use of credit notes to satisfy tax obligations, effective May 1. The remaining 40% — including any fines and interest — must be paid in cash through approved channels. Tax specialists argue the restriction exceeds the SRI's administrative authority and conflicts with the Tax Code.
April 2026
Ecuador Shrimp Sector: 60 Million Pounds Held Up as Middle East War Disrupts Maritime Logistics
Ecuador's largest non-oil export faces a logistics crisis. CNA president José Antonio Camposano reports 60 million pounds of shrimp held up due to maritime route disruptions, port delays, and reefer container shortages caused by the US-Iran conflict. The May 3–18 curfew in coastal production zones adds operational pressure.
Ecuador's 920 MW Thermal Plan: $696 Million Committed, 490 MW in Unfulfilled Prior Commitments
Ecuador announced plans to add 920 MW of thermal generation in 2026 at a combined cost of $696.84 million. The target is the third revision in five months. Meanwhile, 490 MW in prior rental commitments remain unfulfilled, and electricity demand hit an all-time record of 5,374 MW on April 14.
Ecuador's Rice Crisis: Government Launches $8M Direct Purchase as Market Price Collapses to $18–21 per Saca
Ecuador's Agriculture Ministry is launching an $8 million direct rice purchase program on May 4 after market prices collapsed to $18–21 per saca — 42–50% below the government support price of $34–36. The Colombia trade war has closed a key export outlet, compounding domestic oversupply.
Ecuador-Colombia Tariff War: Bilateral Trade Down 44% as Ecuador Prepares 100% Duties in May
Bilateral trade between Ecuador and Colombia fell 44% in the first month of the tariff war. Ecuador plans to raise duties to 100% in May, up from the current 50%. Colombia has responded with retaliatory tariffs up to 75% and threatened to cut electricity exports — a critical supply line after Ecuador's 2024 blackout crisis.
CNEL Corruption Probe: $300M+ in Losses, 46 Officials Implicated, 400,000 Accounts Manipulated
Ecuador's Energy Minister Inés Manzano disclosed that CNEL officials manipulated billing data for over 400,000 customer accounts over more than a decade, generating invoices 80% below actual consumption. Estimated total damage exceeds $300 million. Prosecutors raided offices in three provinces on April 28.
Ecuador Banana Exports Rise 10% in Q1 2026 to 111.57 Million Boxes Despite Shipping Disruptions
Ecuador shipped 111.57 million boxes of bananas in Q1 2026, up 9.8% year-over-year. The EU led demand with 34.2% market share and 19% growth, while Turkey posted a 40.5% surge. Shipping disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure added $300-600 per container in freight costs.
BIESS Portfolio Reaches $28.3 Billion With Record 9.08% Return in Q1 2026
Ecuador's BIESS reported a portfolio value of $28.284 billion at end-2025, up 8% year-over-year with an 8.89% return — exceeding the actuarial benchmark by 2.64 percentage points. Q1 2026 return reached 9.08%, the highest ever recorded by the institution.
Ecuador Has Ratified 41 International Treaties Since November 2023 — 36 Now in Force
Ecuador's Constitutional Court has reviewed 41 international treaties since Daniel Noboa took office in November 2023. Of these, 36 are currently in force covering trade, police cooperation, air services, migration, and cybercrime. The portfolio includes strategic economic agreements with South Korea, the EU, and China.
Cenace: Electrical System Operating Normally — Mazar at 62.4%, Molino at 50.2%, Daule Peripa at 63%
Cenace confirmed on April 27 that Ecuador's electrical system is operating normally, with the three critical hydroelectric reservoirs — Mazar (62.4%), Molino (50.2%), and Daule Peripa (63%) — at acceptable generation levels. Moderate rainfall supported inflows. The structural 900–1,000 MW deficit remains unresolved.
Ecuador Cuts Tourism IVA to 8% for May Day Weekend via Decree 368 — Fiscal Stimulus for $2.3B Sector
President Noboa signed Executive Decree 368 on April 27, temporarily reducing the IVA from 15% to 8% on tourism services for the May Day long weekend (April 30–May 3). The measure covers accommodation, dining, tourist transport, vehicle rental, travel agencies, and events. The SRI is responsible for implementation.
Ecuador's Power Generation Gap Reaches 900–1,000 MW as Mazar Reservoir Drops 6 Meters in 25 Days
Ecuador faces a structural energy deficit of 900–1,000 MW with no near-term resolution. The Mazar hydroelectric reservoir has fallen from 2,139 to 2,132.89 meters above sea level since April 1, accelerating since April 19. Cenace warns of cascading failure risk. Oil production hit a 16-year low of 349,167 bbl/d in 2025.
Ecuador Signs First Open-Pit Gold Mine Contract: Cangrejos at $1.648B Investment, 26-Year Term
Ecuador's government formalized the exploitation contract for Cangrejos — the country's first open-pit gold mine and the world's 13th-largest undeveloped primary gold deposit. Chinese-backed Odin Mining Ecuador (CMOC subsidiary) will invest $1.648 billion across a 26-year contract in El Oro province.
Fusarium TR4 Resistance: Queensland's QCAV-4 Transgenic Banana Enters Global Pipeline as Ecuador Studies Import Path
Queensland University of Technology's transgenic banana variety QCAV-4 has demonstrated resistance to Fusarium oxysporum Race 4 Tropical (TR4) — the pathogen threatening global Cavendish banana production. Ecuador, which is studying resistant alternatives (Formosana 218, Gal), faces regulatory barriers to transgenic imports.
Ecuador Country Risk Falls to 404 Points �� Lowest Since 2015, Down 66% Year-Over-Year
Ecuador's sovereign risk premium dropped to 404 basis points on April 22, 2026 — the lowest reading since 2015 and a 66% decline from the 1,186 points recorded at the start of 2025. The decline reflects GDP growth of 3.7%, a 42% surge in international reserves, and continued IMF program compliance.
Ecuador Average Worker Income Falls USD 46.60 Year-Over-Year to $429.50 — Below 2026 Minimum Wage
INEC's March 2026 labor survey shows average worker income dropped to USD 429.50 — below the USD 482 minimum wage and down USD 46.60 year-over-year. Precarious employment rose to 34.8%, while informal employment hit 56.3%.
Ecuador Expands 15% IVA to 60+ Food Products Under IMF Revenue Commitment — $1.5 Billion Target for 2026
An SRI circular dated March 26 applied Ecuador's 15% IVA to over 60 previously exempt food products, including imported lactose-free milk and fortified dairy. The measure is part of a $1.5 billion revenue increase committed to the IMF under Ecuador's $5 billion credit facility.
Small-Segment Cooperatives Drive Liquidations in Ecuador's COAC Sector — 29 in Process as of March 2026
Ecuador has 393 credit cooperatives, but liquidation pressure is concentrated at the small end. As of March 2026, 29 cooperatives are in liquidation — 20 from segment 5 and 9 from segment 4. Cosede deposit insurance covers only USD 1,000 per depositor at those segments.
Two ADN Bills Propose Redirecting 0.5% Employer IESS Contribution to Secap — USD 100–120M Annually at Stake
Two Asamblea Nacional bills would restore Secap's pre-2015 dedicated funding by routing a 0.5% employer payroll contribution through IESS to the professional training agency. Historical throughput: USD 100–120 million annually. Status: both in committee review.
Ecuador Commits $3M for 24,000 m² Naval Station at Posorja — Protecting Contecon, TPG/Inarpi, Bananapuerto Approaches
Ecuador is committing USD 3 million to a 24,000 m² Naval Station at Posorja, targeting maritime interdiction along the Gulf of Guayaquil approaches serving Ecuador's principal export port complex. Construction ~1 year; operational 2027.
Army Dismantles Illegal Mining Camp in Puyango, Loja — Mercury Seized Near Bosque Petrificado
The Ecuadorian Army dismantled an illegal mining camp in Puyango canton, Loja province, near the Bosque Petrificado and Río Puyango. Seizures included mercury, water pumps, and an unidentified white substance; no arrests reported.
Petroecuador Contracts First-Ever Oil Price Hedge — Covers 30M+ Barrels Through December 2026
Petroecuador executed the first petroleum price hedge in its history, covering more than 30 million barrels — roughly 40-50% of volumes to be commercialized through December 2026 — against downside risk below the budget's $53.50/bbl assumption. A January 2026 decree legalized insurance premium as legitimate risk-management expense; BCE was authorized in March to act as intermediary.
Celec Launches Six Thermal Generation Rental Contracts — 920 MW Targeted, Diesel Demand to Rise Sharply
Corporación Eléctrica del Ecuador (Celec) has published six rental contracting processes for thermal generation with a combined ~920 MW ambition. Jaramijó (15 MW) and Salitral (60 MW) are in rental procurement; Durán (120 MW) and Esmeraldas IV (150 MW) are in acquisition. Total diesel burn is projected to add 3.92 million barrels annually on top of the current 196,904 monthly baseline.
Pizza Hut Ecuador Changes Hands — Pepperoni Holdings (Panama) Acquires 80-Location Franchise for $7.8M
Telepizza Gestión and Food Delivery Brands have divested their Ecuadorian Pizza Hut operator Sodetur to Pepperoni Holdings, a newly organized Panama entity backed by three Grupo Hanaska executives. The $7.8 million transaction was registered on March 11, 2026 and covers approximately 80 Pizza Hut locations. Sodetur's 2023 revenue was $29.1 million on a $1.3 million net loss.
Colombia to Formalize Tariff Decree on Ecuadorian Imports — 0–75% Range, Effective Days Away
Colombia's counter-tariff decree on Ecuadorian imports — ranging from 0% on intermediate inputs to 75% on goods produced domestically — is expected to be signed the week of April 21. The move responds to Ecuador's February 1 tariff hike (30→50%) and its planned 100% tariff on May 1. An 80-day bilateral dispute is about to formalize.
Cangrejos Gold Megamine: CMOC/Odin Mining Contract Signing Targeted for H1 2026, $34M Upfront
Ecuador's third large-scale mining exploitation contract — the Cangrejos gold project in El Oro operated by CMOC Group subsidiary Odin Mining del Ecuador — is expected to be signed in H1 2026. The state will receive $34 million on signing with $54 million in total anticipated royalties. Production capacity is projected at 11.5 metric tons of gold annually.
Ecuador Launches 920 MW Thermal Procurement — $696.8M Total, Rental + Equipment Replacement Split
Ecuador's Corporación Eléctrica del Ecuador (CELEC EP) and the Ministry of Environment and Energy (MAE) have initiated contracting for 920 MW of thermal generation capacity for 2026 — $315.54M for 525 MW of rapid-install rental plus $381.30M for 395 MW of equipment replacement at nine existing thermal plants. Demand growth is 4-5% annually.
Ecuador Withholds $134M Sinohydro Guarantees Pending July 2026 PowerChina O&M Handover
Ecuador will retain $134 million in guarantees from Sinohydro until parent PowerChina assumes operations and maintenance of the Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant in July 2026. The withheld sum — $98M retention plus $36M distributor-related — is tied to performance during the O&M transition. The plant has 17,000+ identified distributor fissures.
Nine-Province Curfew May 3-18 Imposes Overnight Operations Restructuring on Banana, Logistics, Manufacturing
Ecuador's May 3-18 curfew in nine provinces and four cantones — announced April 20 — will not allow sector-specific exemptions. Interior Minister John Reimberg publicly rejected a request from the Clúster Bananero del Ecuador for overnight operations carve-outs. Exporters, logistics operators, and manufacturers face 15 nights of forced restructuring.
Labor Ministry Targets May 1 Cut of "Visto Bueno" Dismissal Process from 120 Days to 30-45
Ecuador's Labor Ministry plans to reduce the "visto bueno" dismissal process from the current 80-120 day window to 30-45 days, effective May 1, 2026. The reform was originally proposed in December 2025 in consultation with both labor and employer groups. Employer dismissal timing and indemnification certainty improve materially.
BCE 2025 Rendición: International Reserves Close at $9.795B, Cover 100% of Financial System Deposits
Ecuador's Central Bank closed 2025 with $9.795 billion in international reserves — one of the highest levels since dollarization — covering 100% of first- and second-system financial deposits and 57% of third-system obligations. Interbank payment transactions grew 11.67% year-over-year to $194.287 billion.
Ecuador-Peru 500 kV Electrical Interconnection Deemed Technically Viable by Former Peru Energy Minister
Former Peruvian Energy Minister Carlos Herrera Descalzi, in an interview with Primicias, said a 500 kV high-voltage link between Ecuador and Peru is technically viable. Peru's 14,000 MW installed capacity against 8,000 MW demand — plus same-frequency grids and complementary dry seasons — supports the exchange architecture. Timeline and binational agreement remain unspecified.
Government Weighs 1-2 Month Extension of $177.5M Transport Fuel Compensation Program
Ecuador's government is evaluating a one- to two-month extension of the Decreto 306 fuel-subsidy compensation to roughly 57,000 transporters beyond April. Minister of Government Nataly Morillo confirmed $177.5 million has been allocated so far. Tariff-setting authority remains with municipal GADs, not the national government.
SRI Extends Tax Deadline to April 23 for RUC Digits 5/6 After April 20 System Failure — 283,413 Still Unfiled
Ecuador's tax authority SRI extended the April 20 filing deadline to April 23 for taxpayers whose RUC ninth digit is 5 or 6, citing platform intermittencies under peak load. The extension covers corporate income tax, monthly VAT, and currency-outflow tax. SRI separately reports 283,413 taxpayers nationally have not filed their 2025 income tax returns.
Ecuador EMBI Closes at 409 bps on April 17 — Lowest Sovereign Spread Since October 2014
Ecuador's EMBI spread closed at 409 basis points on April 17, 2026 — the lowest reading since October 5, 2014 (396 bps). A 97-bp compression from the late-March peak of 506 bps, driven by IMF disbursement, higher oil prices, and an IMF growth forecast upgrade for 2026. External financing cost implications now front of mind.
Celec's Sopladora Plant Returns to Full 487 MW Capacity — Three Units Online Since April 5
Ecuador's Sopladora hydroelectric plant — operated by Celec Sur — returned to full installed capacity of 487 MW on April 5, 2026, completing replacement of a 40-tonne turbine shaft on Unit 2 damaged in a July 2023 technical event. The facility had operated at ~80% capacity from April 2024 until shaft replacement. Paute Integral complex (of which Sopladora is part) supplies roughly 40% of national demand.
Ecuador-Morocco Commercial MoU in Final Phase; African Exports $27.8M in Q1 2026 vs $35.7M Full-Year 2025
Ecuador and Morocco are finalizing a commercial Memorandum of Understanding as Rabat prepares to open an embassy in Quito. Ecuadorian exports to African markets reached $27.8M in the first bimester of 2026, already nearing 2025's full-year total of $35.7M. A business forum between Ecuadorian and Moroccan exporter federations accompanies the diplomatic move.
Ecuador to Formally Accept Coca Codo Sinclair April 17; PowerChina Lands $1.15B 25-Year O&M Contract
Ecuador formally accepts the 1,500 MW Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric from Sinohydro by April 17, 2026, ending a decade of refused acceptance over structural defects. PowerChina takes over O&M for $46M/year over 25 years ($1.15B total). $200M cash + $200M supplier credit close prior international arbitration. Distribuidor fissure liability transferred contractually to PowerChina.
IESS Pension System Faces $4.28B Annual Deficit in 2026 as Pensioner Count Doubles vs 2016
Ecuador's IESS pension system enters 2026 with a structural $4.28B deficit. Pensioners have more than doubled since 2016 (840,456 vs 403,668) while affiliate count is flat (3.541M). 2026 pension expense projected at $7.55B; affiliate contributions only $3.44B. State backstop request: $3.05B (budget allocates $2.81B). Biess reserve withdrawal: $1.41B. Structural fiscal pressure point.
Ecuador-South Korea SECA Trade Agreement Ratified via Decreto Ejecutivo 359 — 98.9% Tariff-Free Coverage
President Noboa ratified the SECA agreement with South Korea via Decreto Ejecutivo 359 on April 15, 2026, two days after Asamblea approved 83 votes. Agreement covers 23 chapters, eliminates tariffs on 98.9% of Ecuadorian exports (currently 20-45%). Shrimp at 0% immediately; banana phased over 5 years. Korean market: 51M consumers, ~6× Ecuador per-capita income, ~70% food import dependency.
Noboa Q1 2026 Macro Brief: Sales $63.2B (+9.4% YoY), Country Risk 416 bps, Public Investment $533M
President Noboa presented Q1 2026 economic results in national broadcast: nominal sales $63.2B (+9.4% YoY), public investment $533M (vs $42M Q1 2025), construction sector +20% YoY, real estate +17.8% YoY, country risk at 416 bps (down from 1,908 bps April 2025). Q1 2026 v Q1 2025 baselines include pre-election fiscal distortions. Government-presented data; awaiting BCE H1 release for independent confirmation.
Mazar Reservoir at 2,137 m.s.n.m. — 23-28 Meters Above 2024 Same-Period; Hydro Mix at 72.3% of Generation
Ecuador's Mazar reservoir — the strategic upstream storage for the Paute hydroelectric complex — sits at ~2,137 m.s.n.m. as of April 16, 2026, representing ~61% stored energy capacity and 23-28 meters above 2024 same-period levels. Energy Minister Inés Manzano: "tenemos agua." Hydro provided 72.3% of national output April 16; Coca Codo Sinclair 40% / Paute Molino 19%.
SRI Mandates Single-Step IVA Declaration + Payment Effective June 1, 2026
SRI announces VAT (IVA) declarations effective June 1, 2026 are valid only when filed simultaneously with full tax payment. Partial payment via credit notes invalidates the declaration. Exemptions limited to fiscal compensation system participants and qualifying direct exporters. Compliance and corporate treasury workflow change material for all RUC-registered taxpayers.
CENACE Formally Warns of High Blackout Risk — April 14 Demand Hits Historic 5,374 MW Record
Ecuador's grid operator CENACE formally warned of high probability of forced load-shedding across six CNEL distribution units covering roughly 1.9 million users. April 14 set a historic peak demand record of 5,374 MW. Mallorca feeder at Cataluña substation (Daule) identified as central failure point; some customers reporting 12-hour outages.
Judge Orders Preventive Detention for 15 in Six-Province Fuel Trafficking Network — 3 Active-Duty Military, 5 Police
An Ecuadorian judge ordered preventive detention for 15 of 16 people detained in a fuel trafficking network that operated across six provinces from October 2024 through April 2026. The ring included three active-duty military personnel and five police officers. Evidence came from 18 seized mobile devices showing systematic recruitment of police.
Banco Central Revises 2026 Growth Projection to 2.5% — Up 0.7 Points From September Forecast
The Banco Central del Ecuador raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.5%, a 0.7-point upward revision from its September 2025 estimate. The BCE expects 2.8% average growth through 2027-2029, 1.8% inflation, 10% private credit growth, and a $6.42B external surplus. 2025 closed at 3.7% — implying material deceleration.
SRI Reports $267.2B in 2025 Sales (+9%), $21.5B in Tax Collection (+6.8%)
Ecuador's tax authority SRI reported 2025 economy-wide reported sales of $267.2 billion (+9% YoY) and tax collection of $21.5 billion (+6.8% YoY). Enforcement-generated revenue totaled $578.6 million, roughly 2.7% of collections. Digital channel usage hit 167 million portal visits and 3.5 million credentialed transactions.
CFN Disburses $243.5M in 2025, Posts $280.25M Profit — Delinquency Falls to 20.79%
Ecuador's development bank CFN reported $243.5 million in total 2025 disbursements — $159.83M in productive credit and $83.67M in partial guarantees — alongside $280.25M profit and $1.65B in equity. Delinquency fell from 22.55% to 20.79% year-over-year. Women-led projects received 58% of productive credit.
Ecuadorian Banana Exporters Target 25% South Korea Market Share by 2031 — AEBE Projects $100M Annual FX
Ecuador's banana export association AEBE projects that Ecuadorian bananas can capture 25% of the South Korean market — up from 11% / 3.57 million boxes in 2025 — once the 30% tariff phases out under the Strategic Economic Cooperation Agreement. Full zero-tariff access is set for 2031. AEBE estimates $100 million in annual FX earnings at target.
Ambiensa Breaks Ground on La Estación 1 in Chongón — 4,500 m², 40+ Brands, December 2026 Opening
Ambiensa's subsidiary Corporación Guayaquil broke ground on La Estación 1, Chongón's first shopping center. The 4,500 m² development on 1.2 hectares has already reached 87% pre-leasing in three months, with 40+ brands committed. Opening is scheduled for December 2026. A second phase, La Estación 2, is already in planning.
Minutocorp Lists $4.5M Collective Investment Fund on BVG — Construye Patrimonio 01, Targeting 38% Three-Year Returns
Minutocorp launched its first $4.5 million collective investment fund, Construye Patrimonio 01, issued by associated entity Formaper S.A. The 10-year closed-end fund targets returns of up to 38% every three years and liquidates in 2036. The listing marked the Bolsa de Valores de Guayaquil's 107th bell ring.
Ecuador Finance Ministry Issues Directive for Debt Settlement Using Unproductive State Real Estate
Ecuador's Finance Ministry has published an operational directive allowing government debts to public and private creditors — including GADs and suppliers — to be settled using unproductive state real estate. The protocol requires signed dación de pago agreements, technical reports, and cadastral verification. Inmobiliar held 469 state properties as of December 2024.
DIAN Data Confirms Trade War Bite: Colombian Exports to Ecuador Fell 27% YTD, 57% Month-Over-Month
Colombia's DIAN reports Colombian exports to Ecuador fell 27% year-to-date through February and 57% between February and March as Ecuador's security tariff took effect. Electricity exports collapsed 77%. Ecuadorian exports to Colombia rose 32% to $187.7 million. The tariff escalates from 50% to 100% on May 1.
Fedexpor Projects USD 367 Million Export Upside From Ecuador–South Korea Trade Agreement Over Five Years
With Ecuador's National Assembly having approved the SECA (Strategic Economic Cooperation Agreement) with South Korea, Fedexpor is projecting a $367 million five-year upside in exports. 98.8% of Ecuador's exportable supply enters South Korea at zero tariff immediately upon ratification. Shrimp gets immediate access; bananas phase in; certain sensitive categories have up to 15-year adaptation windows. The deal now awaits presidential ratification.
Aerovía Suspends Operations as Guayaquil Power Outages Continue — Grid Strain Hits Concessioned Public Infrastructure
Guayaquil's Aerovía — the Guayaquil–Durán aerial tram operating as a public-private concession — suspended operations citing lack of electrical service as power outages persisted across multiple sectors of the city from the afternoon and night of April 14. Residents of Escobedo y Luque reported more than 15 hours without power. The government continues to describe the outages as scheduled maintenance or incidents, not a crisis.
SOTE Emergency Variant Reaches 70% Completion; OCP Pursues USD 135 Million Definitive Solution
Petroecuador's emergency variant on the Sistema de Oleoducto Transecuatoriano (SOTE), necessitated by aggressive erosion of the río Loco, has reached approximately 70% physical completion. The 1,983-meter emergency bypass is expected to enter operation in May. OCP is running procurement processes through Sercop for a definitive $135 million solution with a 47.8 km SOTE trace and 49.68 km for the parallel polyduct.
Ecuador Wins "Social Loan of the Year" at Environmental Finance Sustainable Debt Awards 2026 for $500M IDB Housing Loan
Environmental Finance awarded Ecuador the "Social Loan of the Year" prize at the Sustainable Debt Awards 2026 for a $500 million IDB-backed loan received in December 2025 to finance the state social housing program. The deal was structured with technical support from the Global Green Growth Institute, financed by Luxembourg. Minister Sariha Moya represents the recognition as a reputational win for Ecuador's sustainable-debt issuance pipeline.
Formaper Places $4.5M "Construye Patrimonio 01" Collective Investment Fund on Bolsa de Valores de Guayaquil
Formaper S.A., an affiliate of real estate and construction firm Minutocorp, listed its first collective investment fund — "Construye Patrimonio 01" — on the Bolsa de Valores de Guayaquil for $4.5 million, targeting returns of up to 38% every three years over a 10-year term. The BVG recorded the 107th bell-ringing of 2026 to mark the listing. The exchange reports 2025 trading volume of $182 million, a 40.41% increase over 2024.
Fuel Adjustment Transmits to Guayaquil Wholesale Produce Prices — Onion Sacks Up to $45–52, Avocado Cases Double
Vendors at Guayaquil's Mercado Central and the Terminal de Transferencia de Víveres in Montebello are reporting sharp price increases on staple produce items — onion sacks moving from $15 to $45 (with a recent peak of $52), avocado cases from $7 to $14–22, and strawberry cases from $4 to $12–15 — following the April 12 national fuel price adjustment. The ExpresoRcoverage also documents how diesel's 4.7% rise is passing through supply chains.
Banco Guayaquil Hosts "Banco Guayaquil Day" in New York to Attract Foreign Capital to Ecuadorian Projects
Banco Guayaquil is hosting "Banco Guayaquil Day" in New York on April 15, 2026, presented by its executive president Guillermo Lasso Alcívar. The event targets international investors and global financial market participants with the stated goal of linking Ecuador's investment potential to international capital through sustainable investment opportunities.
Sommerfeld 2025 Report: 7,400+ Tariff Lines to 0% Under US Deal, $343.9M Cooperation Secured
Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld presented Ecuador's 2025 foreign affairs accountability report, headlined by the US trade deal commitment that more than 7,400 tariff lines will drop to 0% immediately. The report documents $343.9M in non-reimbursable international cooperation, 107 bilateral instruments signed, and 97.98% ministerial budget execution.
Banco del Pacífico Leads Q1 2026 Private Bank Profitability — ROE 21.51%, ROA 2.36%
Banco del Pacífico posted Q1 2026 net income of $60.05 million and led Ecuador's private banking system in profitability ratios — ROE 21.51% and ROA 2.36% — both ranking first ahead of Banco Pichincha, Banco Guayaquil, and Produbanco. System-wide ROE stands at 13.42% on $53.3B in total credit and $62.6B in deposits.
Ecuador's 100% Tariff on Colombian Goods Triggers Existential Crisis for Andean Community
Ecuador's April 9 imposition of a 100% tariff on Colombian products threatens the institutional viability of the Comunidad Andina de Naciones, the 57-year-old Andean trade bloc. The measure targets approximately $2 billion in annual bilateral trade. Former Colombian president Álvaro Uribe Vélez publicly warned the border city of Ipiales is 'in ruin' as cross-border commerce collapses.
IMF Upgrades Ecuador 2026 GDP Forecast to 2.5% — Above South American Average of 2.3%
The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook upgraded Ecuador's GDP growth projection from 2.0% to 2.5%, placing the country above the 2.3% South American average. The upgrade comes within the Fund's $5B Extended Fund Facility framework and reflects continued reform implementation. Ecuador's 2025 closed at 3.7%, so 2026 still represents a deceleration.
IMF April WEO: World GDP Cut to 3.1%, Worst-Case 2.0%, LatAm Revised Up to 2.3% on Oil Revenue Tailwind
The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook revised global GDP growth down 0.2 points to 3.1% (base case) and projected a 2% worst-case scenario tied to extended Iran conflict disruptions. Latin America and the Caribbean were revised UP 0.1 points to 2.3% — the IMF cites oil-revenue tailwinds as 'good news in terms of export income' for the region's commodity exporters.
Coca Codo Sinclair Inaugurates $19M Permeable Dam to Halt Regressive Erosion at Intake Works
Ecuador's largest hydroelectric facility — the 1,500 MW Coca Codo Sinclair — inaugurated a $19 million permeable dam on April 13 to address the regressive erosion threat that has been advancing toward its intake works since the 2020 collapse of the San Rafael waterfall. The dam was bid out in November 2023 and is positioned 7.8 km from the intake.
Noboa Signals Openness to US Military Presence — Security and Investment Climate Implications
President Noboa's announcement that Ecuador would welcome US military troops to fight organized crime — provided they operate under Ecuadorian command — signals a deepening US-Ecuador security alignment. Joint operations are already active, including Pacific naval exercises with the USS Nimitz and a border strike against Comandos de la Frontera.
Energy Deficit Warning: Expert Contradicts Government on Blackout Risk as Colombia Cutoff Persists
Energy sector expert Marco Acuña warned on April 8 that Ecuador has registered an electrical generation deficit that could lead to power cuts during peak hours, contradicting Energy Minister Manzano's assurances. Colombia's suspension of electricity sales and Coca Codo Sinclair's sub-50% capacity create structural vulnerability heading into the dry season.
Ecuador-UAE BIT: Constitutional Court Blocks Fast-Track, Mandates Legislative Approval
Ecuador's Constitutional Court ruled unanimously (9-0) that President Noboa cannot fast-track the bilateral investment treaty with the UAE via executive decree. The ISDS provisions trigger mandatory legislative review under Article 419(7). The ruling adds delay and uncertainty to the UAE investment corridor and reinforces constitutional limits on executive authority in trade agreements.
WTI Crude Whipsaws: $95 to $101 in 24 Hours After Trump Iran Postponement
WTI crude oil experienced extreme volatility in the 24 hours ending April 9, dropping 15% to $95/barrel after Trump postponed his Iran strike threat, then rebounding 7.3% to $101.28. Ecuador's fiscal framework, built on $65-70/bbl assumptions, faces both windfall upside and consumer cost pressure from sustained $100+ pricing.
Ecuador Construction Sector: $6.5B Pipeline, 20.5% Sales Growth, Government Stimulus Package
President Noboa declared 2026 the 'year of construction,' announcing sector sales growth of 20.5%, $6.5 billion in purchase-sale promises, and real estate transaction growth of 17.8%. Government stimulus includes preferential mortgage programs, IVA refunds for builders, and a new social housing law. The sector confidence index jumped from 45.5 to 61.6 year-over-year.
Coca Codo Sinclair Operating Below 50% of Rated Capacity — Equipment Degradation and River Erosion Constrain Output
Coca Codo Sinclair — Ecuador's largest power plant at 1,500 MW rated capacity — continues to operate at less than half its design output. Equipment degradation from 7,600+ documented fissures in water distributors, combined with progressive erosion of the Coca River near the plant's intake, create structural constraints on generation that formal reception from Sinohydro will not resolve.
National Hotel Occupancy at 40.3% — Tourism Recovery Metrics Show Steady But Incomplete Rebound
Ecuador's national hotel occupancy reached 40.3% in the most recent reporting period, representing a 3.6 percentage point year-over-year improvement. While coastal and Galápagos properties are leading the recovery, the national average remains 10-15 points below the pre-pandemic baseline, constrained by security perceptions, airlift limitations, and regional competition.
Lundin Gold Executes Silver Stream Agreement with LunR Royalties — Fruta del Norte
Lundin Gold Inc. executed a definitive silver stream agreement with LunR Royalties Corp. for the Fruta del Norte gold mine in Zamora-Chinchipe province. LunR will acquire the life-of-mine silver stream in exchange for 50.5 million LunR common shares, which Lundin Gold intends to distribute to its shareholders as a dividend in kind.
WTI Crude Breaches $100/Barrel — Ecuador's Fiscal Framework Under Dual Pressure
WTI crude oil exceeded $100 per barrel in early April 2026, driven by continued disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Ecuador's fiscal framework — built on a $65-70/bbl assumption — benefits from the export revenue windfall, but the fuel price band mechanism simultaneously passes higher costs to consumers, creating a dual pressure dynamic in the dollarized economy.
Coca Codo Sinclair: Sinohydro Demands April 17 Reception — $200M in Guarantees at Stake
China's Sinohydro has formally requested that Ecuador's Celec proceed with the definitive reception of the Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant within 15 days, following the closure of the ICC arbitration on March 30. The settlement requires Celec to release approximately $200 million in performance guarantees — despite the Comptroller's unfulfilled order to repair 7,600+ fissures in the plant's water distributors.
Ecuador Mining Reform Law Active Since March 2 — Key Changes for Operators and Investors
Ecuador's reform law on strategic mining and energy sectors entered into force on March 2, 2026, introducing significant changes to the mining legal framework. Key provisions include the creation of integrated mining clusters, state protection for strategic mining areas backed by the Armed Forces, a revised royalty framework, and streamlined permitting processes designed to attract new investment.
US-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Deal: Sector-by-Sector Implementation Analysis
The US-Ecuador reciprocal trade agreement, signed March 14 by USTR Jamieson Greer and Ecuador's Minister Jaramillo, establishes the most comprehensive bilateral trade framework between the two countries in two decades. Implementation is targeted for August 2026, with phased tariff reductions across beef, pork, flowers, fruit, and manufacturing sectors.
CAF Launches Economic Forum 2026 in Quito — Signs Competitiveness Agreement with Ecuador
The Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) held a high-level event in Quito to formally launch the II International Economic Forum and the Latin America and Caribbean 2026 Business Roundtable. CAF simultaneously signed a non-reimbursable technical cooperation agreement with Ecuador focused on developing a new national competitiveness policy.
Llurimagua $3B Copper-Molybdenum Tender Expected This Year After Codelco Exit
Ecuador's state mining company Enami plans to launch an international tender this year for the $3 billion Llurimagua copper-molybdenum project in Imbabura province, following the exit of Chile's Codelco from the joint venture. The project, containing an estimated 5.2 million tonnes of copper equivalent, represents Ecuador's largest single mining investment opportunity.
Fuel Band Mechanism Pushes Toward $3/Gallon Psychological Threshold — Consumer Spending Implications
Ecuador's fuel price band mechanism is projected to push low-octane gasoline (Extra/Ecopaís) to $3.03/gallon and diesel to $2.96/gallon on April 12, 2026 — the first breach of the $3 psychological threshold. The cumulative 16% increase since January, driven by the Strait of Hormuz disruption, has implications for consumer spending, transport costs, and inflation in Ecuador's dollarized economy.
Manta Draws 158,000+ Visitors, $8.2M During Semana Santa
Manta welcomed over 158,000 visitors during Semana Santa 2026, generating an estimated $8.2 million in direct tourism spending. Hotel occupancy across the canton reached 80%, with beachfront properties hitting near-full capacity. The numbers underscore Manta's growing positioning as a domestic tourism anchor and its economic significance for Manabí province.
IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on Fifth EFF Review — $394M Disbursement Pending
The IMF announced a staff-level agreement on the fifth review of Ecuador's $5 billion Extended Fund Facility, clearing the path for a $394 million disbursement pending Executive Board approval. With $3.33 billion already disbursed, Ecuador has drawn approximately two-thirds of the total program. The agreement signals that fiscal consolidation benchmarks — including subsidy reform and revenue mobilization — have been met for the review period.
Cacao Prices Collapse 59% From Peak — Farm-Gate at $180-$190/Quintal
International cacao prices have collapsed approximately 59% from the $13,000/ton peak reached in late 2024, with benchmark futures settling near $3,336/ton. Ecuadorian farm-gate prices for Nacional-variety cacao have fallen to $180-$190 per quintal, down from over $400 at the market's peak. The correction reflects demand destruction in European confectionery, speculative position unwinds, and improved West African production forecasts.
OPEC+ Approves 206,000 bpd Increase for May — Pressure on Ecuador's Fiscal Balance
OPEC+ approved a 206,000 barrel-per-day production increase for May 2026 on April 5, exceeding the expected ~135,000 bpd increment. The larger-than-anticipated supply addition pressures global crude benchmarks and directly threatens Ecuador's fiscal balance. Ecuador — producing 466,400 bpd and budgeting Oriente blend at $65-70/bbl — faces an estimated $850 million annual revenue loss for every $5/bbl decline in realized prices.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War at Maximum Escalation: 50% Tariffs Both Sides
The Ecuador-Colombia bilateral trade relationship has reached maximum escalation, with both countries imposing 50% tariffs on the other's imports. The dispute — which has expanded to include a 900% pipeline tariff surcharge and the suspension of Colombian electricity exports — puts approximately $2.8 billion in annual bilateral trade at risk. The escalation is the most severe disruption to Andean trade since the 2008 diplomatic crisis.
Shrimp Exports Surge 23% in January — On Track for Record Year
Ecuador's shrimp exports surged 23% year-over-year in January 2026, reaching 125,200 tonnes and reinforcing the sector's trajectory toward another record year. Full-year 2025 exports reached $7.47 billion, cementing shrimp as Ecuador's single largest non-oil export. China continues to absorb approximately 55% of volume, though diversification toward the US, EU, and Japan is accelerating.
Mining Reform Enters Force — $10-$15B Investment Pipeline, Lundin Gold Commits $100M
Ecuador's mining reform law entered force on February 26, 2026, establishing a modernized regulatory framework designed to unlock an estimated $10-$15 billion in mining investment. Lundin Gold has committed $100 million to expanded exploration drilling at Fruta del Norte, while the broader industry plans 133,000 meters of drilling across key concessions. The reform simplifies permitting, enhances security provisions for remote operations, and revises the royalty structure.
Ecuador Launches Latin America's Largest Biodiversity Bond — $120M
Banco Bolivariano issued Latin America's largest biodiversity bond at $120 million, with anchor investments from IDB Invest ($50M), IFC ($50M), and the Netherlands' FMO ($20M). The proceeds will fund sustainable agriculture, responsible forestry, and conservation-linked lending in Ecuador. The issuance is the first of its kind in the Andean region and positions Ecuador as a pioneer in biodiversity-linked capital markets.
Labor Reform: Agreement 059 Allows 10-Hour Workdays — Mass Protests
Ecuador's Ministry of Labor issued Ministerial Agreement 059 on March 10, 2026, allowing employers and workers to redistribute the standard 40-hour workweek across fewer days with shifts of up to 10 hours. The measure has triggered mass protests in Quito led by CONAIE and labor unions, who characterize it as a rollback of worker protections. Business chambers have expressed cautious support, citing operational flexibility benefits for manufacturing and services sectors.
SRI Cracks Down on ISD Tax Evasion in Foreign-Financed Imports
Ecuador's tax authority (SRI) has intensified enforcement of the 5% Impuesto a la Salida de Divisas (ISD) on foreign-financed imports, targeting evasion schemes that have proliferated since the tax credit elimination in January 2025. The crackdown focuses on split-invoicing structures and offshore financing arrangements used to minimize or avoid the capital outflow tax. An estimated $150-$250 million in annual revenue is at stake.
Mazar Reservoir at Critical Levels — Paute Complex Energy Risk Assessment
The Mazar reservoir, the critical regulation dam for Ecuador's largest hydroelectric complex, is sitting only 22 meters above its operational minimum as the dry season extends into April. The Paute complex — which supplies roughly one-third of Ecuador's electricity — faces renewed curtailment risk if rainfall patterns do not improve. The 2024 rationing episodes, triggered by similar hydrology, cost the economy an estimated $1.5-2.0 billion in lost output and forced industrial load-shedding of up to 14 hours per day.
Fuel Price Adjustment April 12 — Extra/Ecopaís and Diesel to Rise
Ecuador's national fuel pricing mechanism will adjust on April 12, 2026, with Extra/Ecopaís gasoline and diesel prices rising as global crude benchmarks pass through to the domestic pump price. Super premium gasoline remains unchanged under the current segmented pricing framework. The adjustment reflects the fuel pricing band system introduced in 2024 to gradually eliminate consumer subsidies. Analysts estimate the pass-through will add 0.15-0.25 percentage points to headline CPI over the next 90 days.
EV Sales Surge: 2,198 Units in Q1 2026 — Chinese Brands Lead the Segment
Ecuador registered 2,198 electric vehicles during Q1 2026 — a record quarterly volume and a significant acceleration from 2025. BYD leads the segment with approximately 40% share, while Chinese brands collectively account for more than 75% of EV registrations. The surge reflects tax incentives introduced in 2023, accelerating charging infrastructure investment, and aggressive pricing from Chinese manufacturers that has pushed entry-level EVs below $25,000 in the Ecuadorian market.
SRI Clarifies: 94 of 115 Basic Basket Foods Retain 0% IVA
Ecuador's Internal Revenue Service (SRI) published a granular breakdown confirming that 94 of the 115 items in the national basic food basket (canasta básica) retain the 0% IVA treatment. Only 21 items — concentrated in processed and packaged categories — now carry the 15% IVA rate. The detailed classification reduces interpretation risk for retailers and provides a clearer framework for consumer price index modeling. Estimated CPI impact from the reclassification is contained at 0.3-0.5 percentage points.
CAPIA Elects Mónica Ortega Pacheco as President for 2026-2029 Term
The Azuay Small and Medium Industry Chamber (CAPIA) elected Mónica Ortega Pacheco as its new president for the 2026-2029 term, according to El Mercurio. The leadership transition occurs as Azuay province reports 22%+ sales growth in Q1 2026 — significantly outpacing national recovery rates. The SMI sector represents approximately 60% of Azuay's industrial employment and is a critical channel for workforce absorption in the southern highlands.
Azuay Q1 Sales Surge 22% — Noboa Announces $50M+ Road Concession Package
Azuay province posted a 22%+ increase in sales during Q1 2026, significantly outpacing the national economic recovery rate, according to data cited by President Noboa in an interview with El Mercurio. Noboa simultaneously announced a $50M+ road concession package covering the Cuenca-Molleturo-El Empalme and Cuenca-Girón-Pasaje highways — two strategic corridors linking the southern highlands to the coast. The province's security profile remains among the strongest nationally, with fewer than 12 homicides recorded and March violent deaths down 26% across Ecuador.
SRI Clarifies IVA on 60+ Processed Foods — Consumer Price Impact Analysis
Ecuador's Internal Revenue Service (SRI) issued a clarifying circular on March 26 confirming that approximately 60 processed food items now carry the standard 15% IVA rate. Affected categories include processed dairy, baked goods, pre-cooked proteins, instant noodles, and flavored beverages. Raw and natural food products maintain the 0% rate. Analysis of the reclassification suggests a 200-400 basis point margin compression for food retailers and a measurable upward pressure on Ecuador's consumer price index in the processed food segment.
Profit-Sharing (Utilidades) Deadline April 15 — Compliance Framework for Employers
Ecuador's annual profit-sharing (utilidades) distribution deadline falls on April 15, 2026, requiring all employers with net profits to allocate 15% to their workforce. The distribution follows a two-tier structure: 10% divided equally by time worked and 5% allocated by number of family dependents. Foreign workers in dependent employment relationships qualify on equal terms. Non-compliance carries penalties of $1,446 to $9,640 per affected worker, with verification available through the Superintendencia de Compañías portal.
US-Ecuador Nuclear Energy Cooperation Agreement Signed — Civilian Power and Research
The United States and Ecuador have signed a bilateral cooperation agreement for civilian nuclear energy, covering both power generation and research applications. The agreement responds to Ecuador's chronic energy deficit — which triggered rolling blackouts costing an estimated $3-4 billion in 2024 — and represents a long-term diversification play beyond the country's hydroelectric-dependent grid. The deal deepens the US-Ecuador strategic partnership alongside the March 2026 reciprocal trade agreement and ongoing security cooperation.
EU-Europol Security Agreement — Ecuador Becomes First Latin American Signatory
Ecuador has become the first Latin American country to sign a security cooperation agreement with Europol, the European Union's law enforcement agency. Published in Ecuador's Official Register on March 30, the agreement enables joint operations, intelligence sharing, and coordinated investigations against transnational organized crime. The partnership has already been operationalized: authorities dismantled a cocaine trafficking network linking Ecuador's Los Lobos cartel with Albanian criminal organizations operating across Belgium and the Netherlands. For international investors, the agreement represents a significant institutional credibility signal in a country where rule-of-law concerns remain a primary risk factor.
Banco Bolivariano Launches $120M Biodiversity Bond — Largest in Latin America
Banco Bolivariano has launched Latin America's largest biodiversity bond, raising up to $120 million over a five-year tenor with anchor subscriptions from IDB Invest ($50M), IFC ($50M), and FMO ($20M). The bond — Ecuador's first dedicated biodiversity instrument — will finance eligible projects across five pillars: productive land use, sustainable freshwater and marine production, waste management, forestry, and ecotourism. All funded projects must demonstrate verifiable environmental benefits under the bank's sustainable finance framework.
Construction Sector Forecast: 4.6% Annual Growth Through 2029, $7.5B PPP Pipeline
Ecuador's construction sector is projected to grow at an average rate of 4.6% annually from 2026 through 2029, following 3.8% real growth in 2025, according to Research & Markets. The Ministry of Infrastructure has allocated $407 million in its 2026 Annual Investment Plan, with the 'Creamos Vivienda' housing program ($58M) and Guayaquil's Fifth Bridge ($33M) anchoring the near-term pipeline. A broader $7.5 billion in public-private partnership investments has been published on the SOURCE infrastructure platform, driven by energy infrastructure, mining cluster development, and social housing.
EU-Ecuador SIFA — First Latin American Investment Facilitation Agreement Concluded
The European Commission has concluded negotiations on a Sustainable Investment Facilitation Agreement (SIFA) with Ecuador — the first such agreement with any Latin American country. The SIFA includes EUR 8 million (~$9.5M) in technical assistance for investment climate improvements and energy transition, a first-of-its-kind annex on sustainable energy and raw materials, and provisions to streamline administrative authorizations and improve regulatory transparency. The agreement completes Ecuador's emerging three-pillar trade architecture spanning the Americas (US reciprocal trade deal), Europe (SIFA), and the Middle East (UAE CEPA).
Ecuador Returns to Capital Markets — $4B Sovereign Bond, Country Risk at 460
Ecuador returned to international capital markets in January 2026 for the first time since its 2020 debt restructuring, issuing $4 billion in sovereign bonds across two tranches — $2.2 billion due 2034 at 8.75% and $1.8 billion due 2039 at 9.25%. The issuance was paired with a $3 billion debt buy-back that smoothed the country's near-term maturity profile. Ecuador's country risk spread has collapsed from 2,016 basis points to 460 since the restructuring, and the IMF characterized the capital markets return as a 'success' in its most recent staff assessment.
UAE-Ecuador CEPA Triggers $3B Project Pipeline — Clean Energy, Mining, Digital Infrastructure
Ecuador and the UAE signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) during the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi's visit in early March 2026, making Ecuador the fourth Latin American country to secure such a deal. The agreement is expected to catalyze over $3 billion in projects across clean energy, mining, and digital infrastructure. Non-oil bilateral trade reached $373.6 million in 2025. Solar and wind equipment imports receive preferential import duties and VAT exemptions, while a $200 million 'Digital Ecuador' initiative and fast-track environmental licensing (<60 days) are designed to accelerate foreign investment deployment.
IMF Staff-Level Agreement on Fifth EFF Review — $394M Disbursement Unlocked
The IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the fifth review of Ecuador's $5 billion Extended Fund Facility on March 31, unlocking a $394 million disbursement that would bring total program draws to $3.33 billion — 66% of the full facility. International reserves have reached $9.975 billion, and IMF staff described Ecuador's economic recovery as 'much faster than anticipated.' However, the authorities acknowledged weaker-than-expected fiscal results in late 2025 and committed to expenditure optimization and revenue enhancement measures ahead of the Executive Board's final approval.
Ecuador GDP Grew 3.7% in 2025 — Central Bank Confirms Strongest Post-Recession Recovery
The Banco Central del Ecuador confirmed on March 25 that GDP grew 3.7% in 2025, slightly revised from an initial estimate of 3.8%, marking the strongest post-recession recovery since the economy contracted 2% in 2024. Exports expanded 6.4%, driven by shrimp, cacao, banano, canned fish, and mining output. Gross fixed investment rose 5.6%, household consumption grew 2.7%, while government spending was nearly flat at +0.04%. The BCE projects 1.8% growth for 2026. International reserves are at historic highs.
US-Ecuador Joint Strike Hit Dairy Farm -- Military Operations Under Scrutiny
A New York Times investigation has revealed that a joint US-Ecuador airstrike under Operation Southern Spear -- active since March 3, 2026 -- struck a cattle and dairy farm in San Martin, not a narcotics facility as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had publicly promoted. Workers at the site reported beatings and electrical shocks during post-strike detention. The findings raise questions about oversight of the bilateral security campaign, which has logged 4,300+ arrests since launch.
Mining Reform Law Opens $10-15B Investment Pipeline for Ecuador
Ecuador's mining reform law, effective March 2, 2026, following a 77-70 National Assembly vote, overhauls the regulatory framework with a variable 3-8% royalty scale, a 100% self-power generation mandate, and the reopening of the metallic concession registry frozen since 2018. The Llurimagua copper-molybdenum project -- estimated at $3 billion -- will proceed to international tender, while the February 4 Critical Minerals Ministerial recognized Ecuador as a strategic minerals source, unlocking up to $10 billion in US EXIM/DFC financing.
IMF Projects 2% GDP Growth for Ecuador in 2026 Amid Post-Crisis Recovery
The IMF projects 2.0% real GDP growth for Ecuador in 2026, marking a recovery from the 2024 contraction caused by severe power outages, lower oil output, and security-related disruptions. Inflation remains contained at approximately 1.5% under dollarization, while remittances now exceed 5% of GDP. The CAF's launch of an International Economic Forum in Quito signals growing multilateral engagement, though the Colombia trade war and commodity price volatility present significant headwinds.
Iran War Oil Shock Delivers Mixed Impact for Ecuador's Dollarized Economy
The 2026 Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history, pushing WTI above $100 per barrel. For Ecuador -- a dollarized oil exporter producing approximately 480,000 barrels per day -- the shock delivers a double-edged impact: stronger export revenues and fiscal outperformance against a $65/barrel budget assumption, offset by rising domestic fuel prices under the banding adjustment system and inflationary pressure with no monetary policy tools to respond.
Colombia Electricity Cutoff Costs Ecuador an Estimated $2M Per Day
Colombia's indefinite suspension of electricity exports to Ecuador is costing an estimated $2 million per day in replacement generation costs. Ecuador normally imports 8-10% of its daily electricity demand from Colombia. The cutoff -- part of a broader bilateral trade dispute featuring 50% reciprocal tariffs -- has forced Ecuador to activate Turkish floating generators and increase thermal output, testing a grid still recovering from the 2024 blackout crisis.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Escalates to 50% Bilateral Tariffs on ~$2.8B in Annual Trade
The Ecuador-Colombia trade dispute has escalated to 50% reciprocal tariffs affecting approximately $2.8 billion in annual bilateral trade across ~300 goods categories. Colombia has suspended electricity exports as additional leverage. Credendo's analysis finds no immediate macroeconomic impact for either country but warns the dispute signals a 'new era' of Andean trade friction that could reshape regional supply chains.
Fuel Band Adjustment Projects ~5% Price Increase on April 12
Ecuador's fuel banding system is projected to deliver an approximately 5% price increase when the monthly adjustment takes effect on April 12, 2026. Extra and ecopaís gasoline currently stand at $2.89 per gallon, with diesel premium at $2.82 per gallon. WTI crude above $100 per barrel -- driven by the Iran war -- is the primary driver, pushing domestic fuel prices toward the second-highest level ever recorded under the banding mechanism.
US and Ecuador Sign Nuclear Energy Cooperation MOU, 300MW SMR Tender Planned
The United States and Ecuador signed a Memorandum of Understanding on strategic civil nuclear cooperation on April 1, 2026, with US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and Ecuador's Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld as signatories. Ecuador plans to issue a tender for a 300MW small modular reactor in 2026, which would make it the first South American country with a concrete SMR deployment timeline. The MOU follows IAEA technical cooperation and reflects Ecuador's post-blackout energy diversification strategy.
U.S.-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Agreement Eliminates Tariffs on $2.786B in Non-Oil Exports
The United States and Ecuador signed a reciprocal trade agreement on March 13, 2026, eliminating tariffs on $2.786 billion in non-oil exports. The deal covers 53% of Ecuador's non-oil export lines to the U.S. market, phases U.S. beef tariffs to zero over three years, and largely eliminates Ecuador's 45% pork duties. Digital trade provisions establish the first bilateral e-commerce framework between the two countries.
Noboa Cuts VAT to 8% for Tourism Services via Decree 348
President Daniel Noboa signed Executive Decree 348 on March 31, 2026, temporarily reducing Ecuador's value-added tax (IVA) from 15% to 8% for tourism services during the April 3-5 Semana Santa holiday period. The measure covers accommodation, food and beverage, transport, travel agencies, and ecotourism operators. The SRI is implementing administrative guidelines for compliance.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Surge 23% YoY to 125,200 MT in January 2026
Ecuador's shrimp exports surged 23% year-over-year to 125,200 metric tonnes in January 2026, extending the momentum from a record $7.47 billion performance in 2025. China's share of Ecuadorian shrimp imports declined to 49.5% from 54.2%, reflecting deliberate market diversification. The sector projects a 15% full-year volume increase driven by technification and genetic improvement programs.
ENAMI Prepares International Tender for $3B Llurimagua Copper Project
Ecuador's state mining company ENAMI is preparing an international tender for the Llurimagua copper project in Imbabura province, a $3 billion development with a 982 million-tonne resource capable of producing 210,000 tonnes of copper annually over a 27-year mine life. The tender follows the resolution of arbitration with Chile's Codelco, which was awarded $25.3 million of a $567 million claim.
Lundin Gold Targets 475,000-525,000 oz Production, Launches $85M Exploration Campaign
Lundin Gold released 2026 guidance targeting 475,000-525,000 ounces of gold production from its Fruta del Norte mine in Zamora-Chinchipe province, with throughput increasing to 5,500 tonnes per day. The company is investing $85 million in a 133,000-meter exploration drilling program and expects to make a development decision on the FdN South deposit in H1 2026.
Decree 273 Overhauls Mining Royalties with 3-8% Sliding Scale
Executive Decree 273 overhauls Ecuador's mining royalty framework, replacing the previous flat-rate system with a 3-8% sliding scale tied to LME three-year trailing averages. The decree mandates 100% self-power generation for mining operations, caps the total state take at 50%, and reopens the metallic mineral concession registry that has been frozen since January 2018.
Ecuador Banana Exports Rise 11.8% in Early 2026 Post-EU Tariff Elimination
Ecuador's banana exports rose 11.8% in the January-February 2026 period, reaching 71.49 million boxes as the elimination of the EU's 15% tariff in November 2025 boosted European demand. The EU absorbed 34.58% of exports, followed by Russia at 22.19% and the United States at 13.40%. Ecuador controls approximately 26-30% of global banana trade.
Oil Production Falls to 452,800 bpd; Fiscal Breakeven at 550,000 bpd
Ecuador's crude oil production fell to 452,817 barrels per day in February 2026, widening the gap to the estimated 550,000 bpd fiscal breakeven threshold. January averaged 466,400 bpd, a 1.8% year-over-year decline and 13% below the same month a decade ago. Pipeline theft, aging infrastructure, $3 billion in Chinese debt obligations, and declining proved reserves compound the structural challenge.
Cacao Exports Projected at 623,000+ MT; Ecuador to Surpass Ghana as World No. 2
Ecuador's cacao exports are projected to exceed 623,000 metric tonnes in 2026, according to Anecacao, positioning the country to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cacao producer. Production has surged from 375,720 MT in 2023, with the 2026/27 season potentially exceeding 650,000 MT. The industry targets 800,000 MT by decade's end.
Coca Codo Sinclair Erosion: Army Corps Warns Damage Could Reach Intake by 2026
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has warned that erosion along the Coca River could reach the intake structure of Ecuador's 1,500 MW Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant by 2026. The plant generates approximately one-third of Ecuador's electricity. While recent rains have improved reservoir levels and a new 200 MW plant has come online, peak demand of approximately 4,500 MW continues to strain the system.
World Bank Projects 2% GDP Growth for Ecuador in 2026; Tax Reform Likely
The World Bank projects Ecuador's GDP will grow 2% in 2026, among the lowest rates in Latin America. With a fiscal deficit of 3-4% of GDP, the expiration of the security contribution ($330 million), and weakening oil receipts, multilateral institutions consider tax reform increasingly likely. The government faces a structural revenue gap that existing measures cannot close.
March 2026
Ecuador's Oil Output Drops to 466,400 bbl/d in January -- 13% Below Decade Average; Pipeline Theft Epidemic Costs $100M/Year
Ecuador's crude oil production averaged 466,400 barrels per day in January 2026, a 1.8% year-over-year decline and 13% below the same month a decade ago. The 84,000 bbl/d gap to fiscal break-even translates to an estimated $800 million annual revenue shortfall. Illegal pipeline taps surged from 36 in 2022 to 770 in 2024, costing approximately $100 million per year as narcotrafficking organizations exploit petroleum infrastructure.
Europol-Ecuador Operation Dismantles Los Lobos Trafficking Network -- 7+ Tonnes Seized, High-Value Target Captured
A joint Europol-Ecuadorian police operation dismantled a drug trafficking network linked to the Los Lobos criminal organization, seizing more than 7 tonnes of cocaine across the Netherlands, Belgium, and Ecuador. 16 individuals were arrested including a high-value logistics coordinator. The network used banana and shrimp containers for EU-bound cocaine shipments, highlighting Ecuador's growing role in European supply chains.
CAF Approves $42M Loan for Cuenca Municipal Infrastructure Development
The Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) signed a $42 million loan agreement with the GAD Municipal de Cuenca for urban infrastructure development. The sovereign-guaranteed sub-national loan is one of CAF's largest municipal commitments in Ecuador outside Quito and Guayaquil, targeting water systems, urban mobility, and climate resilience at a time when Cuenca faces escalating infrastructure strain.
LATAM Ecuador Launches Cuenca-Galapagos Route -- A319 Service, $310 RT, Twice-Weekly
LATAM Ecuador launched the first-ever direct air service between Cuenca and the Galapagos Islands (Baltra) on March 31, 2026, operating twice-weekly Airbus A319 service at fares starting at $310 round-trip. The triangulation route (Cuenca-Quito-Baltra-Cuenca) adds approximately 15,000 annual seats to Galapagos-bound capacity and positions Cuenca's Mariscal La Mar Airport as a multi-destination hub.
Banana Exports Surge 9.7% in January 2026 -- U.S. Tariff Removal and Reduced Central American Competition Drive Growth
Ecuador's banana exports reached 36.59 million 40-pound boxes in January 2026, a 9.7% year-over-year increase driven by expanded production, reduced Central American competition, and the removal of 15% U.S. tariffs under the March 2026 trade deal. Separately, shrimp exports closed 2025 at a record $7.47 billion, with China absorbing nearly half of total volume.
Ecuador's Country Risk Drops to 460 Points; Allianz Trade Upgrades Rating in 2026 Atlas
Ecuador's country risk, measured by the EMBI spread, has dropped from 2,016 to 460 basis points -- a dramatic improvement reflecting fiscal consolidation, trade deal momentum, and restored IMF confidence. Allianz Trade included Ecuador among 36 economies upgraded in its 2026 Atlas. GDP growth is forecast at approximately 2% for 2026-2027, with inflation contained between 1.5% and 2.8% by dollarization.
New Mining & Energy Law Takes Effect -- Permits Streamlined, Indigenous Organizations Push Back
Ecuador's Organic Law for Strengthening Strategic Mining and Energy Sectors took effect on March 2, 2026, following a 77-70 National Assembly vote on February 26. The law replaces the environmental licensing system with a streamlined 'environmental authorization' regime, creates integrated mining clusters, and deploys the Armed Forces to protect strategic mining zones. Indigenous organizations have condemned the legislation as a rollback of constitutional protections.
UAE Signs $3B CEPA With Ecuador -- Clean Energy, Mining, and Tech Investment Roadmap
The United Arab Emirates and Ecuador signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) on March 2, 2026, during the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi's state visit to Quito. The deal eliminates or reduces tariffs on 96% or more of traded goods and establishes a $3 billion strategic investment roadmap covering renewable energy, mining, logistics, technology, and agriculture. A separate $250 million MOU was signed for surveillance and border protection infrastructure.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Escalates to 50% Tariffs; Andean Community Mediates
Ecuador raised tariffs on Colombian imports from 30% to 50% effective March 1, 2026, citing Colombia's failure to control organized crime along their shared border. Colombia retaliated with 50% tariffs on approximately 300 Ecuadorian products, including pharmaceuticals, plastics, and mineral fuels. Colombian trade authorities estimate the mutual tariffs could reduce bilateral trade by 75-79%. Delegations met at the Andean Community headquarters in Lima on March 25-26 without reaching resolution.
U.S.-Ecuador Trade Deal Signed -- 15% Tariff Lifted on Key Exports Worth $2.8-3.2B
The United States and Ecuador signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade on March 13, 2026, removing the 15% surcharge on approximately 50% of Ecuador's non-petroleum exports -- an estimated $2.8-3.2 billion in annual trade. The deal covers bananas, flowers, cacao, blueberries, tuna, gold, and copper, while Ecuador eliminates or reduces tariffs on 90% or more of U.S. agricultural products. Entry into force requires Constitutional Court approval, National Assembly ratification, and executive signature, targeted for August 2026.
ENAMI Plans 2026 International Tender for $3B Llurimagua Copper Project — 982M-Tonne Resource
Ecuador's state mining company ENAMI plans to launch an international tender in 2026 for the Llurimagua copper-molybdenum project in Imbabura province, valued at an estimated $3 billion. The deposit holds a 982-million-tonne resource capable of producing approximately 210,000 tonnes of copper annually over a 27-year mine life. The tender arrives at a strategic inflection point — weeks after the National Assembly's mining reform and Ecuador's inclusion in the U.S. Critical Minerals Ministerial.
BCE Projects 3.2% Inflation for 2026 as Diesel Subsidy Elimination Saves $1.1B Annually
The Banco Central del Ecuador projects 3.2% inflation for 2026, driven primarily by the September 2025 diesel subsidy elimination that raised prices from $1.80 to $2.80 per gallon. The move generates an estimated $1.1 billion in annual fiscal savings but triggered a 31-day national strike. The government allocated $300 million in transport operator compensation and expanded housing subsidies to 55,000 new families to cushion the impact.
Coca Codo Sinclair's 1,500 MW at Risk — Erosion Could Reach Intake by 2026
Ecuador's 1,500 MW Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant — which generates approximately 30% of national electricity — faces an existential erosion threat. The US Army Corps of Engineers has warned that progressive riverbed erosion, triggered by the 2020 collapse of San Rafael Waterfall, could reach the plant's water intake infrastructure by 2026. The government has deployed $17.3 million in emergency mitigation and leased three Turkish floating power plants as backup generation.
Lundin Gold Commits $100M Exploration Budget for 2026 — Fruta del Norte South Decision by H1
Lundin Gold has committed $100 million in exploration investment for 2026, targeting a development decision on the Fruta del Norte South satellite deposit by H1 and a mill expansion study (beyond 5,500 t/d) by H2. The company produced 498,315 ounces of gold in 2025 and guides 475,000-525,000 oz for 2026 at all-in sustaining costs of $1,110-1,170/oz. Ecuador's Decree 273 sliding royalty regime has added approximately $150/oz to the cost structure.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit Record $8.4B in 2025 — Surpass Oil as Top Export for First Time
Ecuador's shrimp industry achieved a historic milestone in 2025, exporting $8.401 billion worth of product — a 20.2% increase over 2024 — and surpassing crude oil as the country's top export for the first time. Total non-oil exports reached $29.402 billion (+18.3% YoY). U.S. countervailing duties on Indian shrimp have accelerated Ecuador's market share gains, and industry projections suggest volumes could exceed 1.5 million metric tons in 2026.
U.S. Designates Ecuador as Strategic Minerals Source — Unlocks $10B in EXIM/DFC Financing
Ecuador was recognized as a strategic minerals source at the February 4, 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, attended by 54 nations. The designation unlocks access to up to $10 billion in U.S. EXIM Bank and DFC project financing for qualifying mining projects. Ecuador's heavy rare earth deposits, copper reserves, and gold resources were specifically cited. However, Chinese firms already control the country's three largest undeveloped mining projects, representing over $50 billion in combined resource value.
National Assembly Passes Mining Reform 77-70 — Environmental Permitting Overhauled
Ecuador's National Assembly passed comprehensive mining reform legislation on February 27, 2026, by a 77-70 vote. The law replaces the single environmental licensing system with a tiered authorization framework, establishes protected military zones covering approximately 400 illegal mining sites, and creates a formalization pathway for artisanal miners. Indigenous organization Ecuarunari has signaled it may challenge the law in the Constitutional Court, citing inadequate prior consultation.
Decree 273 Introduces Sliding Mining Royalties: 3%-5%-8% Scale Plus 100% Self-Power Mandate
Presidential Decree 273, signed December 31, 2025 and effective January 1, 2026, restructures Ecuador's mining royalty framework with a sliding scale tied to trailing three-year LME averages: 3% below reference, 5% at reference, 8% above. The decree also mandates 100% self-generated power for all mining operations — adding an estimated $150-400 million per project — and compresses exploration timelines from approximately 8 years to 3.5-5 years. The regime directly affects SolGold's Cascabel ($3.2B), CMOC's Cangrejos ($2.5B), Solaris' Warintza ($1.4B), and Dundee's Loma Larga ($312M).
Brent Surges Past $105/bbl — Ecuador Nets ~$50M in Extra March Revenue
Brent crude surged approximately 55% from late February levels to reach $105.85 per barrel by March 26, driven by escalating U.S./Israel-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz shipping risk. Ecuador stands to capture roughly $50 million in extra March revenue from the price spike. However, domestic production challenges persist: January output of 466,400 barrels per day declined 1.8% year-over-year, while fuel theft from pipelines grew 20-fold between 2022 and 2024, with 770 illegal taps discovered versus 36 two years prior.
Colombia-Ecuador Lima Trade Talks Collapse — No Agreement on Tariffs, Electricity, or Pipeline Fees
Trade negotiations between Colombia and Ecuador held March 25-26 in Lima collapsed without agreement on the core disputes — tariffs, electricity pricing, and pipeline transit fees. The only outcome was a border security cooperation framework. Colombia exports $2.13 billion annually to Ecuador while Ecuador ships $863 million to Colombia, with both flows now subject to punitive reciprocal tariffs that show no signs of resolution.
BCE: Ecuador GDP Grew 3.7% in 2025 — Forecasts 1.8% for 2026
The Banco Central del Ecuador confirmed 3.7% GDP growth for 2025, a strong recovery from the 2.0% contraction in 2024. Exports expanded 6.4%, gross fixed investment rose 5.6%, and household consumption grew 2.7%. Sixteen of 20 economic sectors posted growth, led by financial activities (+9.8%), agriculture (+8.6%), and food manufacturing (+8.5%). The oil sector contracted 0.6%. For 2026, the BCE projects 1.8% growth — more conservative than the IMF's 2.0% and CEPAL's 2.1% forecasts.
Ecuador-U.S. Reciprocal Trade Agreement Signed March 13 — ~53% Non-Oil Exports Tariff-Free
The United States and Ecuador signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on March 13, 2026, granting tariff-free access for approximately 53% of Ecuador's non-oil exports to the U.S. market — roughly $2.8 billion in annual trade value. The agreement covers shrimp, flowers, canned tuna, and other key export categories, positioning Ecuador as one of the few Latin American countries with preferential U.S. market access outside a full FTA.
Ecuador-Colombia Tariff War at 50% — Lima Talks March 26-27
Ecuador and Colombia have imposed reciprocal tariffs of 50% in an escalating trade dispute that threatens $2.8 billion in annual bilateral trade. Mediation talks are scheduled for March 26-27 in Lima, with both countries' agricultural, manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors facing significant disruption. The dispute marks the most serious commercial confrontation between the two Andean neighbors in over a decade.
UAE-Ecuador CEPA: $3B Investment Pipeline — 96%+ Tariff Elimination
Ecuador and the United Arab Emirates signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) that eliminates tariffs on over 96% of product lines and opens a $3 billion investment pipeline targeting energy, logistics, infrastructure, and agriculture. The agreement positions Ecuador as one of the first Latin American countries with preferential access to the Gulf market and Gulf sovereign wealth capital.
U.S.-Ecuador Trade Deal Labor Provisions — Bar Weakening Worker Protections
The U.S.-Ecuador Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) includes labor provisions that bar either party from weakening worker protections to gain a trade advantage. The provisions require Ecuador to maintain compliance with ILO core labor standards, including freedom of association and elimination of forced labor, with non-compliance potentially triggering dispute resolution and suspension of tariff preferences.
National Assembly Passes Mining Reform Law — 77-70 Vote
Ecuador's National Assembly passed the Mining Reform Law in a 77-70 vote, establishing a new environmental compliance system, restructured community consultation framework, and streamlined permitting processes. The reform is projected to unlock $10-15 billion in mining investment by 2030, driven primarily by gold and copper projects in the southern highlands and coastal cordillera.
Lundin Gold Invests $100M in 2026 Exploration — 133K Meters Drilling
Lundin Gold announced a $100 million exploration investment for 2026, including 133,000 meters of drilling at and around the Fruta del Norte gold mine in Zamora-Chinchipe province. The program targets mine life extension, resource expansion, and near-mine discoveries at Ecuador's flagship producing gold operation.
Oil Production Falls to 466K bpd — 13% Below Decade Ago
Ecuador's oil production has fallen to approximately 466,000 barrels per day (bpd), 13% below output levels from a decade ago and roughly 100,000 bpd below the fiscal budget target of 566,000 bpd. The decline reflects mature field depletion, chronic underinvestment in exploration, and infrastructure constraints in the Amazon basin.
$2.43B Renewable Energy Expansion Plan — 1,471 MW, Solar Dominates at 963 MW
Ecuador announced a $2.43 billion renewable energy expansion plan targeting 1,471 MW of new capacity, with solar photovoltaic projects accounting for 963 MW (65% of total). The plan directly addresses the hydroelectric vulnerability exposed by severe drought-driven blackouts in late 2024 and early 2025, diversifying Ecuador's power matrix away from its ~80% dependence on hydroelectric generation.
Shrimp Exports Surge 23% in January 2026 — Record Pace
Ecuador's shrimp exports surged 23% year-over-year in January 2026, extending the momentum from a record $7.47 billion in 2025 total exports. The industry projects an additional 15% growth in 2026, driven by expanding market share in China, the U.S.-Ecuador ART reducing tariff barriers, and continued global demand for farmed shrimp.
U.S. Countervailing Duty Review on Ecuadorian Shrimp — Preliminary Results March 10
The U.S. Department of Commerce published preliminary results on March 10 in its countervailing duty (CVD) review on warm-water shrimp imports from Ecuador. The review examines whether Ecuadorian government subsidies — including tax incentives, preferential financing, and infrastructure support — warrant offsetting duties on approximately $1.2 billion in annual shrimp exports to the U.S. market.
Ecuador Set to Become World's #2 Cocoa Producer — 623K+ MT Projected
Ecuador is projected to produce over 623,000 metric tons of cocoa in 2026, positioning the country to become the world's second-largest producer behind only Ivory Coast. Cocoa exports surpassed bananas in value for the first time in 2025, driven by record global cocoa prices exceeding $8,000/MT and Ecuador's expanding cultivation area.
Withholding Tax Rates Updated March 1 — General Rate 2.75%
Ecuador's Internal Revenue Service (SRI) implemented updated income tax withholding rates effective March 1, 2026, with the general withholding rate increasing to 2.75%. The changes affect payments across professional services, commissions, insurance, and financial transactions, requiring businesses to update payroll and accounts payable systems to maintain compliance.
GDP Growth ~2%, Country Risk Drops to 460 — IMF Recovery "Faster Than Anticipated"
Ecuador's economy is recovering faster than anticipated according to the IMF's latest assessment, with GDP growth converging at approximately 2% for 2026 and country risk spreads narrowing to 460 basis points — down from approximately 2,000 bps in April 2025. The improvement reflects record international reserves, a stabilizing security situation, and expanding trade architecture.
FDI Reaches $4.2B; "Digital Ecuador" Allocates $200M
Ecuador's foreign direct investment (FDI) reached $4.2 billion, while the government allocated $200 million to the "Digital Ecuador" initiative targeting smart city infrastructure, digital government services, and technology-sector investment attraction. The programs signal a policy pivot toward positioning Ecuador as a regional technology hub alongside its traditional commodity export strengths.
INSELEC Debuts on BVQ with $5M Bond — 100% Placed
INSELEC, a 48-year-old electrical installations company, successfully debuted on the Bolsa de Valores de Quito (BVQ) with a $5 million corporate bond that was 100% placed. The issuance signals growing capital markets access for mid-market industrial firms in Ecuador and follows the BVQ's record $18.2 billion in trading volume during 2025.
BVQ Records Historic $18.2B Trading Volume in 2025
The Bolsa de Valores de Quito (BVQ) recorded a historic $18.2 billion in trading volume during 2025, reflecting growing investor confidence, declining country risk, and an expanding universe of corporate and sovereign issuers. The milestone marks Ecuador's capital markets as an increasingly relevant financing channel alongside traditional bank lending.
Infrastructure Starts 2026 on Pause — $407M Budget, Housing/Bridge Projects
Ecuador's infrastructure sector enters 2026 with a $407 million budget allocation, but major housing and bridge projects remain in planning rather than active construction. Security spending priorities and fiscal constraints under the IMF framework have delayed capital deployment, leaving the construction sector operating below capacity.
Export Sector Grows 11.6% — Germany +77% — European Market Diversification
Ecuador's export sector grew 11.6% year-over-year, with Germany emerging as the fastest-growing major destination market at +77%. The European diversification trend reflects the maturing EU-Ecuador Trade Agreement (operational since 2017) and growing demand for Ecuadorian shrimp, cocoa, and bananas in European markets.
CAF Signs Technical Cooperation for Ecuador's National Competitiveness Policy
CAF (Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean) signed a non-reimbursable technical cooperation agreement with Ecuador to develop a national competitiveness policy, announced during the II International Economic Forum and the Latin America & Caribbean 2026 Business Roundtable held in Quito. The agreement complements Ecuador's expanding trade architecture, which now includes the U.S. ART, UAE CEPA, and China FTA.
Curfew in Four Provinces Through March 31 — 75,000 Security Forces Deployed
Ecuador imposed a nightly curfew (11 PM to 5 AM) across four provinces — Guayas, Los Ríos, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, and El Oro — from March 15 through March 31, 2026, deploying 75,000 security forces with armored vehicles, motorcycles, and helicopters. The affected provinces include Ecuador's commercial capital Guayaquil and key banana and shrimp export zones, raising logistics and commercial disruption risks.
World Bank: Ecuador GDP Growth at 2.0% — Below Regional Average of 2.4%
The World Bank forecasts Ecuador's GDP growth at 2.0% for 2026, below the South American average of 2.4% and well under Central America's 3.0%. The estimate converges with the IMF's 2.0% projection and CEPAL's 2.1%, while Ecuador's own Central Bank is more conservative at 1.8%. Despite record international reserves of $11.94 billion and an improving trade balance, structural constraints keep Ecuador among the region's underperformers.
Ecuador Continues Yasuní Oil Production Despite Court Order — HRW Report
A Human Rights Watch report published March 16, 2026 documents Ecuador's continued oil production in Yasuní National Park — one of the most biodiverse places on Earth — despite an August 2023 referendum in which voters chose to halt extraction, followed by a Constitutional Court order mandating implementation. The government's defiance of both the popular vote and judicial ruling raises ESG compliance questions and sets a legal precedent with implications for regulatory predictability.
NYT Investigation Challenges U.S.-Ecuador Joint Strike Claims — Dairy Farm Destroyed, Not Drug Camp
A New York Times investigation published March 24, 2026 found that a March 3 joint U.S.-Ecuador military operation in Sucumbíos province — promoted by SOUTHCOM and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as the destruction of a narco-terrorist training camp — actually destroyed a 350-acre dairy farm. The farm owner provided property titles and pre-destruction photographs; workers reported soldiers arriving by helicopter, setting structures on fire, and beating workers.
Petroecuador Production Reaches 458,000 bpd; 2M Additional Export Barrels for March-April
Ecuador's national oil production reached 458,207 barrels per day as of March 2, 2026, with Petroecuador launching a 2026 drilling campaign targeting 380,000+ bpd from state-operated fields by May. The government announced 2 million additional export barrels for the March-April window, signaling a production recovery after 2025's 8.5% decline to an average of 349,167 bpd.
January 2026 Trade Balance: $630M Surplus; Non-Oil Exports Turn Structurally Positive
Ecuador posted a total trade surplus of $630.21 million in January 2026, with exports of $3,100.87 million against imports of $2,470.67 million. The non-oil trade balance reached +$403.57 million — a structural reversal from the -$400 million monthly deficits recorded as recently as 2021-2022, driven by shrimp, bananas, cacao, flowers, and tuna pushing the non-oil export basket above $3 billion per month.
International Reserves Reach $11.94B — Highest Level Since Dollarization
Ecuador's international reserves reached $11,940.11 million as of March 13, 2026 — the highest level since the country adopted the U.S. dollar in 2000. The figure represents a 42% year-over-year increase from December 2024's $9,795 million and a $7.4 billion surge in approximately 27 months from December 2023's $4,454 million, driven by fiscal discipline, export revenue growth, foreign investment inflows, and adherence to the IMF framework.
U.S.-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Agreement Signed — 53% of Non-Oil Exports Get Tariff Relief
The United States and Ecuador signed a reciprocal trade agreement on March 13, 2026, eliminating surcharges on 53% of Ecuador's non-oil exports — approximately $2.786 billion in annual trade. The agreement includes digital trade provisions barring discriminatory digital service taxes and opens access to EXIM Bank and DFC project financing.
UAE-Ecuador CEPA: $3B Investment Pipeline in Clean Energy, Mining, Tech
The United Arab Emirates and Ecuador signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in early March during the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi's visit to Quito, outlining a $3 billion strategic investment roadmap. The deal covers clean energy, mining, logistics, advanced technology, and agriculture — making Ecuador the fourth Latin American country to sign a CEPA with the UAE.
Mining Reform Law Takes Effect: New Environmental Framework, Military Zones
Ecuador's Mining Reform Law entered into force on March 2, 2026, replacing the traditional environmental license with a tiered 'environmental authorization' system. The law creates protected mining zones with military deployment authority, establishes a formalization path for artisanal miners, and supports a $14 billion project pipeline. Mining exports reached $3 billion in 2024, with the government targeting a doubling by 2027.
Ecuador's 2026 Budget: $46.3B in Spending, 13% YoY Increase
Ecuador's National Assembly approved the 2026 general state budget at $46.3 billion, a 13% increase over 2025 levels and equivalent to 33.27% of GDP. The budget assumes 1.8% real GDP growth, oil production of 165.5 million barrels at $53.50 per barrel, and allocates $2.2 billion in public investment across 388 projects.
GDP Outlook 2026: IMF Projects 2% Recovery After 2024 Contraction
The IMF projects Ecuador's real GDP growth at 2.0% for 2026, marking a recovery after the 2024 contraction caused by severe power outages, declining oil production, and elevated insecurity. Inflation is forecast between 1.5% and 2.8%. Remittances now exceed 5% of GDP, providing a critical external buffer, but downside risks persist from commodity price volatility, hydropower drought exposure, and structural fiscal rigidities.
Large-Scale Mines Cross $1B Annual Revenue Mark
Ecuador's three operating large-scale mines — Fruta del Norte (gold), Mirador (copper), and Cascabel (copper-gold) — have crossed the $1 billion combined annual revenue threshold. Fruta del Norte alone has attracted $2.7 billion in total investment since inception. Meanwhile, the next generation of projects — Warintza, La Plata, and Curipamba — are advancing through feasibility and permitting stages, though the mining cadastre has remained closed since January 2018.
Ecuador's Expanding Trade Network: From China and Canada to the UAE
Ecuador has signed seven new trade agreements since 2020, including FTAs with China (2024), Canada (2025), and the U.S. reciprocal trade agreement and UAE CEPA in March 2026. The accelerating diversification moves Ecuador from historical dependency on the Andean Community toward a multi-polar trade architecture covering bananas, shrimp, cocoa, flowers, and minerals across four continents.
Fintech Regulatory Gap: Sandbox Framework Exists, No Applicants Yet
Ecuador's 2022 Fintech Law established a regulatory framework for payment aggregators, digital wallets, gateways, and remittance platforms, including a regulatory sandbox provision. However, as of March 2026, no secondary regulations have been finalized and zero sandbox applications have been submitted — leaving a regulatory gap in a dollarized economy where remittances exceed 5% of GDP and mobile payment adoption is accelerating.
FBI Permanent Office in Ecuador: Security Cooperation and Business Environment Signal
The FBI has established its first permanent field office at the U.S. Embassy in Quito, operational as of mid-March 2026. The office will conduct joint investigations with Ecuadorian law enforcement on drug trafficking, money laundering, weapons smuggling, and terrorism financing — a significant signal for compliance-conscious investors evaluating Ecuador's institutional environment.
Decree 273 in Effect: New 3-8% Mining Royalty Scale and Self-Power Mandate
Ecuador's Decree 273, approved by the National Assembly 77-70 on February 26, establishes a price-linked mining royalty scale of 3-8% based on the trailing three-year London Metal Exchange average. At current gold prices near $2,050/oz, the standard rate is 5%. The decree also mandates 100% self-power generation for mining operations and clears the path for $14B+ in project investment including Cascabel, Llurimagua, Fruta del Norte, Warintza, and Loma Larga.
Labor Reform MDT.2026-059: 10-Hour Workday and Business Implications
Ecuador's Ministerial Decree MDT.2026-059 authorizes 10-hour workdays while maintaining the 40-hour weekly maximum, enabling compressed 4-day work schedules. The reform, issued without union consultation, triggered mass protests in Quito and Guayaquil on March 13. The decree is part of President Noboa's broader deregulation push that includes the Mining and Energy Law, raising political risk as his approval rating sits at 38%.
Ecuador GDP Forecast 2026: 2% Growth, 1.5% Inflation, Trade Deals Could Shift Trajectory
The IMF projects Ecuador's real GDP growth at 2.0% for 2026 with an inflation forecast of 1.5%, though February data showed 2.6% year-over-year CPI growth. Export performance is strong: shrimp exports reached $7.5 billion in 2025 (+23% YoY) and banana exports surged 9.7% in January 2026. Upside catalysts include the U.S. reciprocal trade agreement and mining investment, while the Colombia trade war ($2.8B corridor at risk) and labor protests threaten the outlook.
U.S. Designates Ecuador's Rare Earth, Copper, and Gold as Strategic Minerals
The United States has designated Ecuador's rare earth, copper, and gold reserves as strategic minerals under a bilateral Critical Minerals Framework signed at the February 4 Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington. Ecuador was one of 11 nations to sign the framework, which enables U.S. EXIM Bank financing for mining projects and positions the country as a priority partner in Washington's strategy to diversify critical mineral supply chains away from China.
FBI Opens First Permanent Office in Ecuador; U.S. Security Partnership at Historic Levels
The FBI opened its first permanent office in Ecuador on March 12, based at the U.S. Embassy in Quito. The office, established under a bilateral Memorandum of Understanding, will conduct joint investigations into drug trafficking, weapons smuggling, money laundering, and terrorism financing. Previously, FBI operations in Ecuador were managed from the Bogota field office. The move signals the deepest U.S.-Ecuador security partnership in history.
Noboa Weakened After Referendum Defeat; 2026 Municipal Election Cycle Begins
President Daniel Noboa enters 2026 politically weakened after voters rejected his November 2025 referendum proposing foreign military bases and a constituent assembly. A 31-day Indigenous-led strike in October further eroded governing capacity. With 2026 municipal elections approaching for mayors and prefects across Ecuador's 221 cantons and 24 provinces, the political landscape is fragmenting as Noboa doubles down on U.S. security alignment despite domestic opposition.
75,000 Military and Police Deployed in Joint U.S.-Ecuador Anti-Narcotics Operation
Ecuador launched the largest joint security operation in its modern history on March 3, deploying 75,000 military and police personnel in coordination with U.S. Southern Command. Operation Southern Spear imposes an 11 PM to 5 AM curfew across four coastal provinces through March 31. The FBI simultaneously opened its first permanent office in Ecuador, signaling the deepest U.S. security partnership in the country's history.
Ecuador GDP Growth Forecast at 2% for 2026; Dollarization Keeps Inflation Below 3%
Ecuador's GDP is forecast to grow 2.0% in 2026 according to the IMF, recovering from a 2024 contraction driven by energy blackouts and low oil prices. FocusEconomics consensus is slightly above 2% through 2027. Dollarization continues to anchor inflation between 1.5% and 2.8%, giving Ecuador the lowest inflation in South America and a competitive advantage in attracting fixed-income foreign investment.
$2.43 Billion Electric Power Expansion Plan: 963 MW Solar, Hydro, and Wind Capacity Through 2030
Ecuador has outlined a $2.43 billion electric power expansion plan targeting 1,471 MW of new renewable generation capacity through 2030, with 963 MW from solar installations. The plan follows the 2024 energy crisis that produced months of rolling blackouts. The Ministry of Energy has allocated $407 million for 2026 energy projects, while the broader construction sector is forecast to grow 4.1% this year.
Ecuador Crude Output Falls 7% in 2025; Block 43 Production Continues Despite Court Order
Ecuador's crude oil production averaged 439,100 barrels per day in 2025, a 7% decline from 2024 levels. Block 43 in the Yasuni National Park continues producing approximately 44,000 bbl/day — 9.4% of national output — despite a 2023 popular referendum that mandated cessation of operations within one year. Human Rights Watch flagged Ecuador's noncompliance on March 16, as the government prepares a new southeast exploration round targeting 300,000 bbl/day.
Mining and Energy Reform Law Approved: Environmental Licensing Simplified, Galapagos Extraction Permitted
Ecuador's National Assembly approved the Mining and Energy Reform Law on February 26 with a 77-70 vote, replacing environmental impact licenses with simplified authorizations for mining and energy projects. The law also permits rock and aggregate extraction in Galapagos outside national park boundaries. The government targets $10-15 billion in mining investment by 2030, with Cascabel and Curipamba advancing to exploitation phase.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Escalates to 50% Mutual Tariffs; Border Tensions Rise
Ecuador escalated tariffs on Colombian imports to 50% on March 1, up from 30% imposed in January. Colombia retaliated with matching duties on approximately 300 Ecuadorian product categories. The bilateral trade corridor — worth $2.13 billion annually in Colombian exports to Ecuador — is now subject to the highest mutual tariff levels in decades, compounded by border tensions after President Petro's bombing accusations on March 17.
U.S.-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Agreement Finalized: Tariff Cuts on Key Export Sectors
The United States and Ecuador finalized a reciprocal trade agreement on March 13, eliminating tariffs on bananas, cocoa, shrimp, flowers, and coffee — covering $2.786 billion in non-oil exports. In exchange, Ecuador will grant duty-free quotas on U.S. corn, sorghum, ethanol, poultry, pork, dairy, and soybean oil, and suspend its price band system for U.S. agricultural imports.
UAE-Ecuador CEPA Signed: $3 Billion Strategic Investment Roadmap Across Energy, Mining, and AI
The UAE and Ecuador signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) on March 2, eliminating customs duties on 96%+ of traded goods. A parallel $3 billion strategic investment roadmap covers renewable energy, digital infrastructure, mining, AI, and education — positioning Ecuador as the UAE's fourth CEPA partner in Latin America.
Los Lobos Leader Arrested in Mexico: Security Implications for Business Operations in Ecuador
Angel Esteban Aguilar, alias 'Lobo Menor,' leader of Los Lobos and primary suspect in the 2023 assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, was arrested at Mexico City airport on March 18. The trilateral Ecuador-Colombia-Mexico operation signals a new phase in international security cooperation with direct implications for Ecuador's business operating environment.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit $7.5B in 2025; January 2026 Volumes Up 23% YoY
Ecuador's shrimp exports reached $7.47 billion in 2025, up 23.2% year-on-year. January 2026 volumes continued the trajectory at 125,200 tonnes (+23% YoY). China accounts for 49.5% of export volume. Shrimp has officially surpassed petroleum as Ecuador's top export category, with industry projections targeting a further 15% increase in 2026.
Ecuador Cocoa on Track to Overtake Ghana as World's #2 Producer in 2026
Ecuador is projected to export over 623,000 metric tons of cocoa in 2026, according to Anecacao estimates, positioning the country to overtake Ghana as the world's second-largest producer behind Côte d'Ivoire. Cocoa exports have already surpassed banana exports in value for the first time in six decades, reaching $3.6 billion in 2024.
Claro Commits $600M to Ecuador Network Expansion and 5G Rollout Through 2038
Claro (América Móvil) will invest $600 million over three years in Ecuador for network modernization, coverage expansion, and 5G rollout. The commitment follows a spectrum license renewal through 2038 and a meeting between CEO Daniel Hajj and President Noboa. Claro is now the second carrier offering 5G in Ecuador after state-owned CNT.
Ecuador Returns to Bond Market with $4B Issuance — Largest in Country's History
Ecuador sold $4 billion in sovereign bonds in January 2026 — its largest-ever issuance and first since restructuring $17.4 billion in debt in 2020. The offering comprised $2.2 billion in 2034 notes (8.75%) and $1.8 billion in 2039 notes (9.25%). Country risk has collapsed from 2,016 points to 460, and international reserves reached $9.975 billion.
Lundin Gold Deploys $100M Exploration Campaign at Fruta del Norte
Canadian miner Lundin Gold will invest $100 million in 2026 to extend the mine life of its Fruta del Norte operation in Zamora Chinchipe province. The program deploys 18 drill rigs (7 underground, 11 surface) targeting 133,000 metres. Current reserves stand at 5.54 million ounces of gold, with expected annual production of 475,000-525,000 ounces through 2028.
EU-Ecuador SIFA: First Sustainable Investment Facilitation Agreement in Latin America
The EU and Ecuador completed negotiations on a Sustainable Investment Facilitation Agreement (SIFA) on January 23, 2026 — the EU's first such deal with a Latin American country. Unlike traditional investment treaties, SIFA focuses on facilitation: streamlining authorizations, improving transparency, and establishing administrative focal points in priority sectors including renewable energy and digitalization.
Oil Production at 466,398 bbl/d — Below 477,000 Target; Yasuní Extraction Continues Despite Court Order
Ecuador produced 466,398 barrels per day in January 2026, falling short of the 477,000+ boepd government target. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch reported on March 16 that oil extraction in Yasuní National Park's Block 43 continues at 1.24 million barrels per month — defying both a 2023 national referendum and a March 2025 Inter-American Court order to halt operations.
SRI Implements New Withholding Tax Structure Effective March 1
Ecuador's SRI implemented new withholding tax rates effective March 1, 2026. The previous 2.75% rate was eliminated and replaced with a 5% tariff and a new 2% withholding rate applicable to credit card payments, insurance, leasing, and construction. Companies have until March 31 to update systems without penalty.
Ecuador Banking Sector Posts $1.336B Net Income for 2025; 92% of Institutions Profitable
Ecuador's banking system recorded aggregate net income of $1.336 billion for 2025, with 24 of 26 financial institutions (92%) reporting positive earnings. Total sector assets reached $70.7 billion. The system remains well-capitalized with non-performing loans at 3.1%, supported by dollarization and growing digital adoption.
Ecuador Eyes Nuclear Power: 300 MW Reactor Tender Planned for 2026
Ecuador plans to tender construction of a 300 MW small modular reactor in 2026 as part of its post-blackout energy diversification strategy. A larger 1 GW reactor is planned for the long term. Ecuador joined the IAEA in May 2025, but the legal framework for nuclear regulation still needs to be established before procurement can proceed.
US-Ecuador ART Formally Signed March 13 — Tariff Elimination Covers $2.8B in Non-Oil Exports
The United States and Ecuador formally signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on March 13, 2026, eliminating surcharges on 53% of Ecuador's non-petroleum exports to the US — valued at $2.786 billion annually. The deal shields qualifying Ecuadorian products from the 10% global tariff and opens access to EXIM Bank and DFC financing for energy, critical minerals, and infrastructure.
Ecuador-Colombia Tariffs Hit 50% on Both Sides — Colombia Retaliates on 280 Products Including Pharmaceuticals
Ecuador raised tariffs on Colombian imports from 30% to 50% effective March 1, 2026, prompting Colombia to match the rate on 280 Ecuadorian product categories including pharmaceuticals, plastics, and mineral fuels. Combined with Colombia's 900% increase in SOTE pipeline transit fees and suspension of electricity exports, the bilateral dispute now affects over $500 million in annual trade flows.
Petro Accuses Ecuador of Cross-Border Bombing — Diplomatic Crisis Reaches Breaking Point With Direct Trade Implications
Colombian President Gustavo Petro accused Ecuador of conducting bombing raids inside Colombian territory on March 17, claiming 27 charred bodies were discovered near the shared border. Ecuador's President Noboa flatly denied the accusation. The diplomatic rupture compounds an already severe trade war — 50% bilateral tariffs, suspended electricity exports, and 900% pipeline fee hikes — putting the entire $1.1 billion bilateral trade relationship at risk.
Ecuador Defies IACHR Ruling on Yasuní Block 43 — 44,000 bpd Still Flowing Past Court Deadline
Ecuador continues extracting approximately 44,000 barrels per day from Yasuní National Park's Block 43 despite a March 2026 Inter-American Court of Human Rights deadline to suspend operations. HRW documented 29 oil spills, contaminated water sources, and threats to two uncontacted indigenous groups. Block 43 represents 9.4% of national crude output — roughly $1 billion annually — creating a direct tension between fiscal necessity and sovereign legal compliance.
Ecuador Reopens Mining Cadastre After 7-Year Freeze — $3B Llurimagua Tender Set for 2026
Ecuador's mining ministry announced the reopening of the national mining cadastre after a seven-year freeze, with new concession applications to be processed in phases starting 2026. Separately, state miner Enami is preparing an international tender for the $3 billion Llurimagua copper-molybdenum project in Imbabura province, projected to produce 210,000 tonnes of copper annually. The moves arrive alongside CMOC's C$581 million acquisition of the Cangrejos gold-copper project and Lundin Gold's planned $100 million exploration investment.
National Assembly Fast-Tracks Social Housing Tax Reform — Debated in Special Cuenca Session
Ecuador's National Assembly convened a rare plenary session at the Universidad Católica de Cuenca on March 17-18, passing prison reform legislation with 84 votes and completing the first debate on a tax reform bill designed to incentivize social housing construction. The government classified the housing bill as 'urgent in economic matters,' triggering fast-track legislative procedures.
February 2026
$273M in Ecuadorian Exports at Risk as Colombia's Retaliatory Tariffs Hit 580 Companies — Palm Oil Sector Bears Heaviest Blow
Nearly $273 million in annual Ecuadorian exports are at immediate risk from Colombia's retaliatory 30% tariff, according to data compiled by UPI and Fedexpor. The trade federation reports that 580 Ecuadorian companies face direct exposure, with the palm oil sector absorbing the heaviest blow at $96 million per year. Colombian importers have already begun sourcing replacements from China, Brazil, and Mexico — a substitution dynamic that threatens permanent market share loss even after tariffs are eventually lifted.
Ecuador-UAE CEPA Reaches Technical Closure — 98% of Products Enter at 0% Tariff, Signature Expected March 2026
Ecuador and the United Arab Emirates concluded technical negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) covering 98% of Ecuadorian products at zero tariff, with formal signature expected in March 2026. Fedexpor estimates non-petroleum exports to the UAE could grow 30% annually once the agreement takes effect, with the market potentially absorbing $1 billion in Ecuadorian goods by 2030. The deal positions Ecuador ahead of regional competitors in accessing Gulf Cooperation Council markets.
Ecuador's International Reserves Hit All-Time Record $11.86 Billion — 35% Held in Gold Above $4,300/oz, Strengthening Dollarization Foundation
Ecuador's international reserves reached an all-time record of $11.858 billion as of February 16, 2026, according to Central Bank (BCE) data — a 37.9% increase year-over-year and the highest level in the country's 25-year dollarization history. Approximately 35% of reserves are held in gold, valued at an estimated $4.15 billion as gold prices surpass $4,300 per ounce. The reserve buffer significantly strengthens Ecuador's capacity to absorb external shocks from the ongoing Colombia trade dispute and new US Section 122 tariffs.
Lundin Gold Commits $100M for 133,000-Meter Drilling Program — Largest Single-Year Exploration Investment in Ecuador's Mining History
Lundin Gold announced its largest-ever exploration program — $100 million and 133,000 meters of drilling in 2026 — focused on extending the life of its high-grade Fruta del Norte gold mine in Zamora Chinchipe province. The investment represents the largest single-year exploration commitment by any mining company in Ecuador's history. A development decision on the Fruta del Norte South deposit is expected in H1 2026, with annual gold production guidance maintained at 475,000-525,000 ounces through 2028.
National Assembly Passes Local Government Spending Law 77-0 — Mandates 70/30 Investment-to-Current Spending Split Across $3.65 Billion in Subnational Budgets
The National Assembly approved President Noboa's urgent economic bill with 77 votes and zero opposition, mandating that Ecuador's 221 municipalities and 23 provincial governments allocate at least 70% of their budgets to public investment, capping current spending at 30%. The law affects approximately $3.65 billion in subnational fiscal resources and is designed to redirect local government spending from payroll and administrative costs toward infrastructure, public works, and development projects.
Construction Sector Posts $2.45 Billion and 8% Growth in 2025 — Government's Miti-Miti Mortgage Program Set to Double Lending Volume in 2026
Ecuador's construction sector generated $2.45 billion in output during 2025, posting 8% year-over-year growth after 27 consecutive months of contraction. The recovery is driven primarily by the government's 'Tu Casa Miti-Miti' mortgage program, which offers subsidized interest rates of 4.87-4.99% — well below market rates of 9-11%. Vice Minister of Housing Daniel Elmir projects that mortgage lending under the program will double in 2026 as coverage expands to secondary cities beyond Quito and Guayaquil.
Colombia Cuts Electricity Exports to Ecuador as Tariff Dispute Strains Andean Energy Integration — Dry Season Grid Stability at Risk
Colombia has suspended electricity exports to Ecuador in retaliation for Ecuador's 30% security tariff on Colombian imports, threatening grid stability during the March-September dry season when hydroelectric generation — which provides 75% of Ecuador's power — typically drops 20-30%. The energy cut adds a third front to the bilateral dispute, alongside Colombia's reciprocal trade tariffs and its 900% increase in OCP crude oil pipeline transit fees. Ecuador imported approximately 500-800 GWh from Colombia in 2025, and the loss of this supply buffer comes as the country is still recovering from the 2024 blackout crisis.
Government to Tender 2,100 MW Across Three Power Projects in 2026 — Including 1,500 MW Solar Mega-Plant in Zapotillo That Would Rank Among Latin America's Largest
Ecuador's Energy Ministry announced plans to tender three major power generation projects in 2026 totaling 2,100 MW: a 400 MW natural gas combined-cycle plant, a 200 MW solar photovoltaic facility in Santa Elena, and a 1,500 MW solar mega-park in Zapotillo, Loja province. The combined investment pipeline is estimated at $2.5-3 billion and represents Ecuador's most aggressive energy diversification push since the 2016 hydroelectric expansion, directly addressing the grid vulnerability exposed by the 2024 blackout crisis.
Ecuador Cocoa Exports Projected to Exceed 623,000 Metric Tons in 2026 — Country on Track to Surpass Ghana as World's #2 Producer
Ecuador's National Cocoa Exporters Association (ANECACAO) projects cocoa exports will exceed 623,000 metric tons in 2026, a 11.3% increase from 2025's 560,000 MT. The volume surge positions Ecuador to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cocoa producer in the 2025/26 season. However, the export growth coincides with international cocoa prices crashing below $3,100/MT — a 65% decline from the $9,000/MT peak in April 2025 — creating a volume-up, revenue-down dynamic that threatens farmer incomes.
89 Mining Concessions Suspended Across Napo, Loja, and El Oro in One Week — Environmental Enforcement Crackdown Intensifies Under Noboa
Ecuador's Ministry of Environment and Energy suspended 89 mining concessions and shuttered 54 mineral processing plants across Napo, Loja, and El Oro provinces in a single-week enforcement operation. The crackdown — targeting operations that lack environmental licenses, exceed permitted boundaries, or fail to comply with water protection regulations — signals the Noboa administration's dual approach of aggressively courting international mining investment while demonstrating environmental governance credentials to satisfy ESG-conscious investors and multilateral lenders.
SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs 6-3, Trump Signs 15% Global Surcharge Under Section 122 — Ecuador's $6.6B Export Channel Faces New Uncertainty
The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on February 20, 2026 that IEEPA-based tariffs are unconstitutional, immediately invalidating the existing reciprocal tariff framework. President Trump signed a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act within hours, escalating it to 15% the following day. Ecuador — which exported $6.6 billion to the US in 2025, up 30.3% year-over-year — faces a recalibrated trade landscape where shrimp exporters alone ship approximately $20 million per month to American buyers.
Ecuador Files 3 Counter-Complaints Against Colombia at CAN General Secretariat, Escalating Andean Trade Dispute to Full Institutional Battle
Ecuador's Ministry of Production (MPCEIP) filed three formal complaints with the Andean Community (CAN) General Secretariat, arguing that its 30% 'security tariff' on Colombian imports is a legitimate national security tool permitted under Andean trade rules. The filing directly counters Colombia's legal challenge and escalates a bilateral dispute that has already seen Colombia retaliate with a 900% increase in pipeline transit fees, threatening $2.3 billion in annual bilateral trade.
Fedexpor Warns Colombia Actively Replacing Ecuador Suppliers With Chinese, Brazilian, and Mexican Alternatives — Signals Permanent Market-Share Loss Risk
Fedexpor president Xavier Rosero warned at a Guayaquil industry event that Colombia is actively sourcing from China, Brazil, and Mexico to replace Ecuadorian suppliers disrupted by the bilateral tariff dispute. Despite record non-oil exports of $29.4 billion in 2025 with 18.3% growth, Fedexpor projects 2026 growth will decelerate sharply to 6-7%, with the Colombia substitution dynamic posing a risk of permanent market-share loss rather than temporary trade disruption.
Ecuador Business Lending Rates Fall Up to 2.89 Percentage Points Year-Over-Year as Improved Sovereign Confidence Frees Domestic Liquidity
Ecuador's business lending rates have fallen by up to 2.89 percentage points year-over-year, with corporate rates declining from 9.33% to 7.54%, business rates from 11.92% to 9.03%, and SME rates from 11.04% to 9.67%. The Ministry of Finance attributes the rate compression to improved international confidence that has reduced sovereign borrowing needs in the domestic market, freeing liquidity for private sector credit expansion following Moody's upgrade and a $4 billion international bond sale.
Cocoa Prices Crash Below $3,100/Ton From Record Highs as 287,000-Tonne Global Surplus Emerges — Ecuador Positioned to Become World's No. 2 Producer
Global cocoa prices have crashed below $3,100 per metric ton, a dramatic reversal from the record highs of 2024-2025, driven by a projected 287,000-tonne global production surplus. Ecuador stands to benefit from the supply rebalancing: with yields of 800 kg/ha versus Ghana's 400 kg/ha and projected output exceeding 650,000 MT in 2026/27, the country is on track to overtake Ghana as the world's second-largest cocoa producer — though lower prices per ton will partially offset the volume gains.
Israeli FM Gideon Saar Makes Historic Ecuador Visit, Launches Formal Trade Negotiations and Signs Security Cooperation Pact in Guayaquil
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited Guayaquil in what officials described as the first visit by an Israeli foreign minister to Ecuador, launching formal trade negotiations and signing a security cooperation agreement. The visit is part of Israel's declared strategy of making 2026 its 'year of Latin America,' potentially opening a new market for Ecuadorian agricultural and commodity exports within Israel's approximately $20 billion Latin American trade relationship.
Ecuador Vehicle Sales Surge 37% in January to Best Month in 5 Years — EVs and Hybrids Reach 22% Combined Market Share With Chinese Brands Dominant
Ecuador's vehicle market recorded 11,342 units sold in January 2026, a 37% year-over-year increase and the best January in five years according to AEADE data. Electrified vehicles captured 22.2% of the market — 5.4% pure electric and 16.8% hybrid — with Chinese brands dominating the EV segment. However, the ANT's corruption investigation has suspended parts of the vehicle registration system, creating a potential drag on near-term sales momentum.
Ecuador's Export Sector Absorbs $525 Million/Year in Security and Redundant Port Inspection Costs, Creating Hidden Competitiveness Drag
Ecuador's export sector absorbs approximately $525 million per year in security and port inspection costs, according to Fedexpor president Xavier Rosero. Private security accounts for $400-425 million while redundant narcotics inspections — where containers are X-ray scanned at $50 then physically opened up to three more times at $200 each — add another $100 million. The costs represent a hidden competitiveness drag that compresses exporter margins despite record $29.4 billion in non-oil exports.
IMF Completes Fourth Extended Fund Facility Review, Approves $630 Million Disbursement as Ecuador's Recovery Outpaces Expectations
The International Monetary Fund completed the fourth review of Ecuador's Extended Fund Facility arrangement, approving an immediate disbursement of approximately $630 million. The IMF noted the economy is 'recovering much faster than anticipated,' with all quantitative performance criteria met and the fiscal deficit narrowing to just 0.7% of GDP in 2025 — well ahead of the consolidation path.
National Assembly Votes 148-0 to Censure Judiciary Chief Mario Godoy After Resignation Gambit Fails, Two-Year Public Office Ban Imposed
The National Assembly voted 148-0 to censure and dismiss Mario Godoy as president of the Consejo de la Judicatura, imposing a two-year ban on holding public office. Godoy resigned just one hour before the political trial was set to begin, but the Assembly proceeded regardless, citing allegations of 'manifest negligence' and pressure on an anticorruption judge to favor a detained Serbian narcotrafficker.
Noboa Unveils Anti-Extortion Plan With QR Code Business Monitoring System as 85% of Gang Leaders Captured but Judicial Bottleneck Stalls Prosecutions
President Daniel Noboa announced a comprehensive anti-extortion plan that includes a QR code-based monitoring system for small businesses, the sector most affected by organized crime. While noting that 85% of gang leaders have been captured since the internal armed conflict declaration, Noboa acknowledged a critical prosecution bottleneck: only 10,000 of 150,000 detained individuals have been judicially processed, prompting calls for judicial system restructuring.
Ecuador's $1.2 Billion Tuna Export Sector Faces Price Pressure as Abundant Yellowfin Catches Collide With Global Skipjack Scarcity and Thai Reference Pricing
Ecuador's tuna industry, the world's largest exporter at 17% of global trade and $1.2 billion in annual revenue, faces downward pricing pressure despite abundant yellowfin catches in the Eastern Pacific. Persistent global skipjack scarcity continues to allow Thailand to set reference prices, creating a two-speed market that compresses margins for Ecuadorian processors and fleet operators.
Consortium Named Top Bidder to Nearly Double Termogas Machala Capacity From 230 MW to 430 MW, Strengthening Grid After 2024 Blackout Crisis
A consortium has been identified as the top bidder to support the revamp and expansion of the Termogas Machala natural gas-fired power plant from 230 MW to 430 MW. The project, located in El Oro province on Ecuador's southern coast, will nearly double the plant's capacity using gas from the Amistad field in the Gulf of Guayaquil, providing critical baseload power as the country recovers from the 2024 energy crisis.
Corporacion America Airports Secures 6-Year Extension for Galapagos Seymour Airport Through 2032, Terminal Charge Rises to $31.18 Per Passenger
Corporacion America Airports secured a six-year extension for the Seymour Airport concession on Baltra Island, Galapagos, running through December 31, 2032. The Terminal Use Charge will increase by $5.20 to $31.18 per passenger, generating additional revenue for infrastructure improvements at the primary gateway to one of the world's most ecologically sensitive tourism destinations.
Two Free Trade Zones Now Operational in Guayas Province: ZOFRAPORT and Pascuales Offer 0% Income Tax for Five Years Under Economic Efficiency Law
Ecuador's two newest free trade zones in Guayas province — ZOFRAPORT at Posorja and Paseo Tablado at Pascuales — are now operational under the 2023 Economic Efficiency Law. Companies establishing operations within the zones pay 0% income tax for five years and a fixed 15% rate thereafter, as the government projects 180,000 direct and 500,000 indirect jobs from the national free zone program.
CNT and Nokia Launch Ecuador's First Commercial 5G Network With 422 Base Stations, National Coverage Targeted by Mid-2026
Ecuador's state telecommunications company CNT, in partnership with Nokia, has launched the country's first commercial 5G network. The rollout includes 422 base stations across Quito, Guayaquil, Cuenca, Ambato, Manta, and Santo Domingo, with national coverage targeted by mid-2026. Speeds reach up to 1.5 Gbps on the N78 (3.5 GHz) band.
Quito Metro Line 1 Northern Extension to La Ofelia Receives Environmental License: 5 km Underground Corridor, 4 New Stations, $80 Million CAF Financing
Ecuador's national environmental authority has granted the environmental license for the northern extension of Quito Metro Line 1. The project adds more than 5 km of underground tunnel and four new stations — Bicentenario, Andalucia, Rosario, and Ofelia — connecting 500,000+ residents and reducing peak-hour travel time from 48 to 8 minutes. CAF has committed $80 million in initial financing.
$117.6 Million IDB-Backed Investment Targets 85% Renewable Power in Galapagos by 2030, 100% by 2040
The Government of Ecuador announced a $117.6 million investment to strengthen climate resilience and accelerate the energy transition in the Galapagos Islands, backed by the Inter-American Development Bank. The 'Energy Evolution' plan targets 85% renewable power by 2030 and 100% by 2040, potentially eliminating 130,411 tonnes of CO2 emissions and opening the door to carbon-market financing.
Ecuador's National Assembly Votes 117-20 to Legalize Carbon Markets, Ending 16-Year De Facto Ban and Opening a New Asset Class
Ecuador's National Assembly voted 117-20 to legalize carbon markets, ending a de facto ban that has been in effect since 2008 constitutional reforms. The legislation, now awaiting presidential approval, creates a regulated framework for carbon credit trading and designates BeZero Carbon as the official ratings provider for the Ecuadorian Carbon Exchange (BECX). Ecuador faces an estimated $3.7 billion in annual climate financing needs through 2050.
Mexico's ASUR Acquires Quito Airport Stake as Part of $936 Million, 20-Airport Acquisition Across Latin America
Mexico's Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR) has agreed to acquire Motiva S.A.'s stake in Corporacion Quiport, the concessionaire operating Quito's Mariscal Sucre International Airport. The transaction is part of ASUR's broader $936 million acquisition of 20 airports across Brazil, Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Curacao, financed through cash reserves and JPMorgan committed debt. The deal is expected to close in H1 2026.
Petroecuador Declares Force Majeure at Esmeraldas Maritime Terminal After Tanker Strikes Submarine Pipeline, Disrupting Fuel Supply to Northern Ecuador
Petroecuador declared force majeure and a 60-day emergency at the Esmeraldas Maritime Terminal after the tanker 'Seaways Wheat' struck a submarine pipeline during diesel discharge on February 8, 2026, caused by adverse weather conditions. The incident disrupts programmed discharges of Premium Diesel, Ron 95 Gasoline, and Diesel Oil — threatening fuel supply to northern Ecuador's coastal and highland regions served by the terminal.
EU and Ecuador Launch $6.6 Million 'Tinkuy' Digital Transformation Program — Four-Year Initiative Targets Cybersecurity, Interoperability, and AI-Powered Social Monitoring
The European Union and Ecuador launched 'Tinkuy' (Kichwa for 'meeting'), a $6.6 million, four-year digital transformation program implemented by Spain's FIAP, Estonia's e-Governance Academy (eGA), and Ecuador's CEDIA. The initiative targets four pillars: enhancing the GOB.EC digital platform, strengthening cybersecurity and data protection, creating a National Cybercrime Center, and deploying AI-powered social indicator monitoring for issues including chronic child malnutrition.
Ecuador's Carnival VAT Cut to 8% Projects $160 Million Economic Impact, 1.3 Million Domestic Travelers at 54%+ Hotel Occupancy
President Daniel Noboa reduced the VAT (IVA) from 15% to 8% for tourism services during the four-day Carnival holiday (February 14-17) via Executive Decree 304. The Vice Ministry of Tourism projected the holiday would generate up to $160 million in economic impact, with more than 1.3 million domestic travelers and hotel occupancy exceeding 54% — the second targeted VAT reduction following a similar measure during the New Year's holiday.
Ecuador Valentine's Day Flower Exports Rise 3% to 39,000 Tons But Revenue Falls to $274 Million as Combined 21.8% US Tariff Erodes Margins
Ecuador shipped approximately 39,000 tons of flowers for Valentine's Day 2026 — a 3% increase over 2025's 37,000 tons — but revenue is projected to decline to $274-276 million from $282 million last year. The decline reflects a combined 21.8% US tariff (15% Trump administration surcharge plus 6.8% existing duty) that has compressed margins across the sector's 6,200 hectares of plantations employing 120,000 workers.
Petroecuador Awards $644.8 Million in Crude Oil Export Contracts for 14.4 Million Barrels to Unipec, Shell, and PetroChina, Plus $128 Million Spot Sale
EP Petroecuador awarded the export of 14.4 million barrels of crude oil (Oriente and Napo grades) through two international public tenders, expected to generate approximately $644.8 million. Awards went to Unipec America, Shell Western Supply and Trading, and PetroChina International. A separate spot sale of 1.44 million barrels of Oriente crude to PetroChina at a WTI differential of -$3.91/barrel is expected to bring $128 million — marking Ecuador's second spot operation of 2026.
Lundin Gold Commits $100 Million to 2026 Ecuador Exploration, Deploys 18 Rigs Across 133,000-Meter Drill Program to Extend Fruta del Norte Mine Life
Lundin Gold announced a $100 million investment in 2026 exploration to extend the life of its Fruta del Norte mine in Zamora Chinchipe province, deploying 18 drilling rigs across a 133,000-meter program. The company expects to produce 475,000-525,000 ounces of gold annually from 2026-2028, with key expansion decisions — Fruta del Norte South development in H1 and mill throughput expansion in H2 — that could transform Ecuador's largest gold mine into a multi-decade operation.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Escalates: 30% Mutual Tariffs, 900% Pipeline Fee Hike to $30/Barrel, and Electricity Suspension Disrupt $2.3 Billion Bilateral Trade
Ecuador and Colombia remain locked in the most severe bilateral trade dispute in decades. President Daniel Noboa's January 21 announcement of a 30% 'security tariff' on all Colombian imports — paired with a 900% increase in pipeline transit fees from $3 to $30 per barrel — triggered Colombian retaliation including 30% tariffs on 23 Ecuadorian products and an indefinite suspension of electricity exports. Bilateral trade worth approximately $2.3 billion annually has been severely disrupted.
US and Ecuador Substantially Conclude Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, Eliminating 15% Tariff Surcharge on ~$3.2 Billion Non-Petroleum Export Basket
The United States and Ecuador substantially concluded negotiations for an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), with a formal signing expected in the coming weeks. The deal eliminates the 15% tariff surcharge on approximately 50% of Ecuador's non-petroleum exports — a basket worth roughly $3.2 billion — covering flowers, bananas, cacao, tuna, blueberries, avocados, pineapples, dragon fruit, and minerals including gold and copper.
Ecuador Banana Exports Hit Record 378 Million Boxes in 2025, Up 3.9% Year-Over-Year as EU and Russia Absorb Over Half of Shipments
Ecuador exported a record 378.41 million boxes of bananas in 2025, a 3.9% increase over 2024, consolidating its position as the world's largest banana exporter. The European Union (31%) and Russia (20%) remained the dominant markets, accounting for over half of all shipments. Emerging growth came from the United States (+14.5%), China (+17.9%), and South Korea (+39.1%), with the just-concluded US-Ecuador reciprocal trade agreement poised to further diversify destination markets.
Ecuador Commits $2.43 Billion to 23 Power Projects Adding 1,471 MW by 2030, With Solar Accounting for 963 MW and $913 Million After Worst Energy Crisis in Decades
Ecuador unveiled its 2025-2030 electric power expansion plan committing $2.43 billion across 23 projects to add 1,471 MW of new hydro, solar, wind, and geothermal capacity. Solar dominates the plan at 963 MW ($913 million), accounting for 65% of new capacity — a strategic pivot away from the hydropower dependence that caused daily blackouts of up to 14 hours and an estimated $2 billion in economic losses during the 2024 drought crisis.
ENAMI Prepares International Tender for $3 Billion Llurimagua Copper Project After Arbitration Tribunal Awards Codelco Just $25.3 Million of $567 Million Claim
Ecuador's state-owned mining company ENAMI plans to launch an international tender in 2026 for the $3 billion Llurimagua copper-molybdenum project after the ICC International Court of Arbitration rejected most of Chile's Codelco $567 million damages claim, awarding just $25.3 million in July 2025. The project — located in Imbabura province, 80 km northeast of Quito — holds a 982-million-tonne resource capable of producing approximately 210,000 tonnes of copper per year over a 27-year mine life.
CAF Invests $450,000 in Ecuador's First National Competitiveness Policy, Signs Technical Cooperation Agreement at Economic Forum 2026 Launch
CAF — Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean — signed a $450,000 non-reimbursable technical cooperation agreement with Ecuador's Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade and Investment to design the country's first comprehensive national competitiveness policy. The agreement, titled 'Towards a New Competitiveness Policy for Ecuador,' was formalized at the Quito launch of CAF's II International Economic Forum, which convened 6,500 leaders from 70 countries in Panama City on January 28-30.
US Formally Designates Ecuador's Rare Earth, Copper, and Gold Reserves as Strategic Minerals at 54-Nation Critical Minerals Ministerial
The United States formally recognized Ecuador's rare earth, copper, and gold deposits as strategic minerals at the February 4, 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, signing a bilateral framework agreement as part of a 54-nation effort to diversify supply chains away from Chinese dominance. The designation opens access to $10 billion in EXIM Bank financing and DFC investment guarantees — but faces a paradox: Chinese state-linked firms already control Ecuador's three largest undeveloped mining projects worth an estimated $50+ billion in combined resources.
TerraEarth Resources: How a Chinese-Owned Firm Amassed 10,900 Hectares of Gold Concessions in Ecuador's Amazon While Contaminating Rivers at 500x Safe Levels
TerraEarth Resources S.A. — a Quito-registered company with $580,000 in capital and two employees, controlled by Chinese nationals Peng Yongming and Wang Ye — holds 10,900 hectares of gold mining concessions across six sites in Napo Province, making it the largest single concession holder in Ecuador's Amazon gold belt. An investigation by Primicias reveals that despite 29 government inspections documenting 55 environmental violations, the company deforested nearly 700 acres and contaminated the Chumbiyacu River with heavy metals at 500 times acceptable levels before its licenses were finally suspended in May 2025.
Chevron Arbitration Award Reduced to $215 Million After Ecuador Wins 93% Savings on Original $3.35 Billion Claim — Procuraduría Weighs Annulment
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has reduced the damages Ecuador must pay Chevron from $220.8 million to $215.07 million following a correction request, while the Procuraduría General del Estado claims a 93% savings against Chevron's original $3.35 billion claim. Procurador Juan Carlos Larrea announced Ecuador has three months to decide whether to seek annulment of the award, negotiate payment terms, or challenge the ruling — as indigenous communities in the Amazon who suffered the original contamination have still received no compensation.
Ecuador Banks Report 7,670 Suspicious Operations in 2025 — Up 42% — as BCE Mandates 47-Pattern Crypto Detection System to Protect Dollarization
Ecuador's banking system reported 7,670 suspicious financial operations in 2025 — a 42% increase from 5,408 in 2024 — as the UAFE (financial intelligence unit) identified $600 million linked to money laundering and $1.5 billion in unusual transactions. Simultaneously, the Superintendencia de Bancos declared the system 'solid and solvent' with $60 billion in deposits and a 14.32% solvency ratio. The Central Bank has mandated all banks install a 47-pattern Transaction Monitoring System targeting cryptocurrency activity to protect Ecuador's dollarized economy.
ProEcuador Absorbed Into Ministry of Production as Noboa's Efficiency Plan Cuts Executive Branch Institutions by 41% — Export Promotion Staff Under Evaluation
Ecuador's export promotion agency ProEcuador has been absorbed into the Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade and Investment under President Noboa's Administrative Efficiency Plan, which reduced executive branch institutions by 41% and ministries from 20 to 14. ProEcuador's staff — responsible for operating 24 commercial offices in 21 countries — are under evaluation as the restructuring takes effect during a period when Ecuador is simultaneously finalizing trade agreements with the United States, Canada, and the UAE.
Ecuador Retail Sales Hit $20.4 Billion in January 2026 — Up 6.8% — as Construction Surges 21% and Administrative Services Jump 22%
Ecuador's retail sales reached $20.39 billion in January 2026, a 6.8% increase ($1.29 billion) over January 2025's $19.1 billion, according to the Servicio de Rentas Internas (SRI). Construction led sectoral growth at 21%, followed by administrative services (+22.3%) and real estate (+21.1%), while the commerce sector — the economy's largest — generated $8.3 billion in monthly activity alone. The data confirms a strong consumer confidence rebound following the 2024 power crisis and economic contraction.
Noboa Signs Decree 307: State Authorized to Buy, Store, and Sell Rice and Corn Directly as 20,000-Tonne Emergency Purchase Targets Farmer Crisis
President Noboa signed Executive Decree 307 on February 13, authorizing the Ministry of Agriculture to directly buy, sell, and store rice and corn to combat price speculation and hoarding. The decree triggers an immediate purchase of 20,000 metric tons of paddy rice from producers — described by Noboa as 'the largest purchase a government has made all at once' — as rice farmers face a deepening crisis: mills paying $20-25 per 220-pound sack against official minimums of $34-36, and 60,000 tonnes of export-grade rice stuck domestically after Colombia's 30% retaliatory tariff closed Ecuador's primary grain export market.
Noboa Relocates Federal Government to Guayaquil After Mayor Alvarez Arrested on Organized Crime and Money Laundering Charges
President Daniel Noboa announced on February 13 that Ecuador's federal government will operate from Guayaquil for several weeks following the arrest and imprisonment of Mayor Aquiles Alvarez on organized crime, money laundering, and tax fraud charges. From Guayaquil, Noboa is launching accelerated housing programs, university student residences, job training initiatives, and enhanced citizen security operations — effectively federalizing governance of Ecuador's largest city and main commercial port.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Escalates: Cross-Border Transit Drops 99%, Pipeline Tariff Surges 900%, and Electricity Exports Suspended
The trade war between Ecuador and Colombia has escalated into the most severe bilateral commercial crisis in decades. Ecuador's 30% 'security tariff' on Colombian imports — effective February 1 — triggered matching 30% retaliatory tariffs from Bogotá on 23 Ecuadorian products, a suspension of Colombian electricity exports, and Ecuador's counter-escalation of a 900% pipeline tariff increase on Colombian crude oil transport. Cross-border goods transit at the Rumichaca international crossing has plunged by up to 99%.
Global Cocoa Prices Crash 62% From 2025 Peak to $4,197/Ton — Ecuador's Rising Cacao Sector Faces Margin Squeeze as World's No. 4 Producer
Global cocoa prices have crashed approximately 62% from their mid-2025 peak above $11,000 per metric ton to approximately $4,197/ton by mid-February 2026. The collapse threatens Ecuador's ambitions to expand its position as the world's fourth-largest cocoa producer, with the country's $1.2 billion annual cacao export sector facing compressed margins — particularly for bulk CCN-51 variety growers — even as fine-aroma Nacional cacao continues to command a premium.
Ecuador's $46.3 Billion 2026 Budget Approved With $2.2 Billion Public Investment Plan Targeting 1,471 MW of New Energy Capacity and 388 Infrastructure Projects
Ecuador's National Assembly has approved a 2026 budget of $46.3 billion — a 13% increase over 2025 and equivalent to 33.27% of GDP. The Annual Investment Plan allocates $2.2 billion across 388 projects, with the centerpiece being a $2.43 billion electric power expansion plan targeting 1,471 MW of new renewable capacity through 2030, including $913 million for 963 MW of solar installations. The construction sector is forecast to grow 4.1% in 2026.
Ecuador Expands US Security Partnership With Surveillance Drones, Military Advisors, and Port Monitoring Systems to Combat Drug Trafficking
President Noboa has announced a significant expansion of security cooperation with the United States, including the deployment of American military advisors, surveillance drones, and advanced port monitoring systems. The partnership — part of the broader US-Ecuador strategic alignment that underpins the recently concluded trade agreement — targets drug trafficking networks and Colombian-origin armed groups operating in Ecuador's border provinces and port facilities.
CAF Signs $450,000 Technical Cooperation for Ecuador's National Competitiveness Strategy as II International Economic Forum Launches
CAF (Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean) has signed a $450,000 non-reimbursable technical cooperation agreement with Ecuador to support the design of a comprehensive national competitiveness strategy. The agreement was formalized during the launch of the II International Economic Forum 2026 and the Latin America and Caribbean Business Roundtable in Quito, with Economy Minister Sariha Moya and Production Minister Luis Alberto Jaramillo present.
US-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Deal 'Substantially Concluded' With Full Tariff Elimination — Shrimp Sector Demands Inclusion in Final Product List
The United States and Ecuador have 'substantially concluded' negotiations on a reciprocal trade agreement that would fully eliminate the 15% surcharge on Ecuadorian goods. However, the shrimp sector — representing $2 billion annually in US-bound exports — has not been confirmed in the final product list, prompting CNA president José Antonio Camposano to warn that 'every agreement the country negotiates must include shrimp.'
Ecuador's Petroleum Paradox: $5.9B in Projected Crude Exports Nearly Matched by $5.0B Fuel Import Bill in 2026
Ecuador's Ministry of Finance projects the country will export approximately $5.926 billion in crude oil in 2026 while importing $4.981 billion in refined fuels — reducing the net petroleum benefit to just $945 million. The near-parity between crude revenue and fuel costs represents an 85% erosion from 2023 levels and exposes the structural fragility of an oil-producing nation that cannot refine enough of its own crude.
Ecuador Ships 39,000 Tonnes of Flowers for Valentine's Day 2026 as US Tariff Hike Drives 6% Decline in American Orders
Ecuador's flower industry dispatched 39,000 metric tonnes of cut flowers during the 2026 Valentine's season (January 20 – February 11), up from 37,000 tonnes in 2025. However, the US tariff increase from 6.8% to 21.8% drove a 6% decline in US-bound shipments, costing the sector an estimated $6 million in lost revenue as Colombia's duty-free access captured displaced demand.
DP World Advances $190 Million Posorja Port Expansion: Berth to Reach 800 Meters by Late 2026, Capacity Jumps 40% to 1.4 Million TEU
DP World announced the advancement of a $190 million expansion of its Posorja deep-water terminal, extending the main berth from 467.5 meters to 800 meters and increasing annual capacity by 40% to 1.4 million TEU. The World Bank-ranked most efficient port in Latin America will deploy all-electric quay cranes and 900+ refrigerated container plugs to support Ecuador's surging commodity exports.
Shrimp Officially Overtakes Petroleum as Ecuador's #1 Export Product: $8.4 Billion vs $7.75 Billion in 2025
In a milestone that redefines Ecuador's economic identity, shrimp exports closed 2025 at $8.401 billion — officially surpassing petroleum at $7.750 billion to become the country's single largest export product for the first time in modern history. The crossover ends petroleum's five-decade dominance and confirms Ecuador's structural transformation toward an aquaculture-led export economy.
Ecuador's Non-Petroleum Exports Hit All-Time Record $25.2 Billion in 2025, Up 16% as Shrimp, Cacao, and Bananas Drive Structural Diversification
Ecuador's non-petroleum, non-mining exports reached a record $25.202 billion in 2025, a 16% year-on-year increase representing $4.553 billion in additional export revenue. The performance generated a positive non-petroleum trade balance of $5.032 billion and confirmed a structural shift in the country's export profile, led by shrimp ($8.4B, +20%), cacao ($4.7B, +29%), and bananas ($4.3B, +11%).
Petroecuador Awards 14.4 Million-Barrel Crude Export Contract Worth ~$645 Million to Unipec, Shell, PetroChina, and ENAP
Petroecuador awarded export contracts for 14.4 million barrels of crude oil -- 9.36 million barrels of Oriente and 5.04 million barrels of Napo grade -- to four international firms in tenders held February 5, 2026. The contracts, worth an estimated $645 million in state revenue, went to Unipec America (Sinopec subsidiary), Shell Western Supply and Trading, PetroChina International, and Chile's ENAP, reflecting Ecuador's continued diversification of crude buyers beyond its traditional China-heavy offtake base.
Lundin Gold Commits $100 Million to 2026 Ecuador Exploration Campaign, Plans 133,000 Meters of Drilling at Fruta del Norte Complex
Lundin Gold announced a $100 million exploration budget for 2026 -- the largest single-year exploration investment in Ecuador's mining sector -- with 133,000 meters of planned drilling across concessions in Zamora Chinchipe province. The company set full-year production guidance at 475,000-525,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,110-$1,170/oz, and expects to make development decisions on both the Fruta del Norte South deposit and a mill expansion beyond 5,500 tonnes per day by year-end.
World Bank Approves $900 Million Job Creation DPF and $200 Million Disaster Risk Facility, Reinforcing Ecuador's Fiscal Consolidation Path
The World Bank approved a $900 million Development Policy Financing operation for job creation and fiscal sustainability, alongside a $200 million disaster risk management facility, in November 2025. The combined $1.1 billion package supports Ecuador's fiscal consolidation -- with the deficit expected to narrow to just 0.7% of GDP in 2025 -- and positions the country to absorb climate and seismic shocks without derailing macro stability.
Banana Exports Hit 377 Million Boxes in 2025 With 3.9% Growth, But Fusarium TR4 Confirmation in December Clouds the 2026 Outlook
Ecuador exported over 377 million boxes of bananas in 2025, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, driven by surging demand from China and Turkey. But the December 2025 confirmation of Fusarium Tropical Race 4 (TR4) on Ecuadorian soil -- the first detection in the country -- has triggered emergency phytosanitary measures and represents the most significant threat to the sector in decades. Containment efforts will determine whether Ecuador can sustain its dominance as the world's top banana exporter.
US and Ecuador Sign Reciprocal Trade Framework: Tariff Exemptions for Non-Competing Goods, Market Access for US Machinery and Digital Services
The United States and Ecuador signed a Framework for an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade in November 2025, establishing mutual commitments on tariff relief, agricultural market access, and digital trade. Under the framework, Ecuadorian goods that 'cannot be grown, mined, or naturally produced in the United States in sufficient quantities' -- likely including shrimp, cacao, and bananas -- will be exempt from the 15% reciprocal tariff. Ecuador committed to reducing duties on US machinery, chemicals, motor vehicles, and eliminating discriminatory digital services taxes.
Ecuador Cacao Exports Projected to Exceed 623,000 Metric Tons in 2026, Positioning Country to Overtake Ghana as World's No. 2 Producer
The National Cocoa Exporters Association (Anecacao) projects Ecuador will export more than 623,000 metric tons of cacao in 2026, a pace that would position Ecuador to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cacao producer by the 2026/27 season. Ecuador's ascent is fuelled by rising planted area, improving yields from hybrid varieties, and sustained elevated global prices driven by supply shortfalls in Ivory Coast and Ghana due to drought, disease, and ageing tree stock.
ENAMI Plans 2026 International Tender for $3 Billion Llurimagua Copper-Molybdenum Project After Codelco Exit
State mining company ENAMI EP plans to launch an international tender in 2026 for the Llurimagua copper-molybdenum project, valued at $3 billion, after Chile's Codelco exited the 51/49 joint venture. The Imbabura province deposit holds a 982-million-tonne resource base with projected output of 210,000 tonnes of copper per annum over a 27-year mine life -- potentially one of Ecuador's largest-ever mining investments at a time of surging global demand for the electrification metal.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Smash Record at 1.39 Million Metric Tons in 2025, Industry Projects 15% Growth for 2026
Ecuador's shrimp sector delivered a record 1.39 million metric tons of exports in 2025, valued at approximately $7.5 billion, representing a 15% year-on-year increase after 2024's stagnation. China remained the dominant buyer at 48% of volume, followed by the US at 19% and Europe at 23%. Industry body CNA projects another 10-15% growth in 2026, driven by accelerating technification of farms and a favourable tariff position relative to India in the US market.
BIESS Cuts Credicasa Mortgage Rate to 2.99% and Expands Coverage to $71,500 as Social Security Bank Moves to Fill Housing Credit Gap
The Banco del Instituto Ecuatoriano de Seguridad Social (BIESS) reduced its Credicasa mortgage interest rate to 2.99% -- the lowest in over a decade -- and expanded maximum eligible property values to $71,504, including single-bedroom units for the first time. The move positions BIESS as an alternative channel for homebuyers who cannot access the stalling Mi Casa Propia programme, and reflects the social security bank's strategy to increase mortgage disbursements amid Ecuador's 1.8-2.2 million unit housing deficit.
Mi Casa Propia Stalls: Over 60% of Loan Applications Fail to Qualify Despite $100 Million Government Allocation
More than 60% of applications submitted to Ecuador's Mi Casa Propia subsidised housing programme have failed to meet qualification requirements, despite a $100 million government allocation designed to expand homeownership among lower-income households. The high rejection rate exposes structural barriers in Ecuador's mortgage market -- including widespread informal employment, land title irregularities, and income documentation gaps -- that government subsidies alone cannot resolve.
Elecaustro Launches Bid for 100MW Replacement Barge as Karpowership Contract Expires, Exposing Grid's Continued Rental Dependence
Elecaustro issued a competitive bid to lease a power generation barge of up to 100 megawatts to replace capacity lost when its Karpowership contract expired on January 7 after a 110-day term. The procurement underscores Ecuador's continued dependence on rented emergency generation -- 334MW across three barges and two thermal plants -- even as the government advances a $2.43 billion long-term power expansion plan targeting 1,471MW of new capacity.
UAE and Ecuador Conclude CEPA Negotiations: 98% of Products Covered, 75% at Zero Tariff, March Signing Planned
Ecuador and the United Arab Emirates concluded technical negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) at the World Government Summit in Dubai, with a formal signing planned for March 2026. The deal grants preferential access for 98% of negotiated Ecuadorian products, with 75% entering the UAE at zero tariff immediately -- covering over 4,000 agricultural and industrial goods. Quito projects annual exports to the UAE could reach $1 billion by 2030, up from $261 million in non-oil trade in 2024.
Banco del Pacífico Targets $1 Billion in New International Financing After Landmark $500M JP Morgan Deal and $225M CAF Guarantee
Banco del Pacífico disclosed plans to raise an additional $1 billion in international financing during 2026, building on a landmark $500 million facility from JP Morgan -- the US bank's first-ever transaction in Ecuador -- and a $225 million partial guarantee from CAF earmarked for SME lending. The state-owned bank reported 2025 net profit of $206 million, up 30% year-on-year, and placed over $1 billion in productive-sector loans.
Noboa Enters Second Term Under Pressure: 60% Disapproval, Referendum Defeat, and Record $230M Security Pledge
President Daniel Noboa begins his second term confronting a stark contradiction: macroeconomic indicators are the strongest in a decade -- country risk at 460 points, reserves at $9.975 billion, inflation at 2.1% -- yet 60% of Ecuadorians disapprove of his administration and 72% see a negative future, according to CIESS polling. The government pledged a record $230 million security investment after 2025 registered the most violent year in the country's history.
CAF Launches Economic Forum 2026 in Quito and Signs $450,000 Technical Cooperation Agreement to Design Ecuador's National Competitiveness Policy
CAF (Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean) held a high-level event in Quito to launch the II International Economic Forum and signed a $450,000 non-reimbursable technical cooperation agreement with Ecuador's Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade and Investment. The agreement will fund the design of a comprehensive national competitiveness policy aimed at improving productivity across Ecuador's non-extractive sectors.
Decree 273 Reshapes Ecuador's Mining Investment Calculus: New 3-8% Royalty Scale, 100% Self-Power Mandate, and Tightened Exploration Timelines Take Effect
Executive Decree 273, signed by President Noboa on December 31 and effective January 1, 2026, introduced the most significant changes to Ecuador's mining regulatory framework in over a decade. The decree establishes a 3-8% sliding royalty scale based on commodity prices, mandates that all mining projects supply 100% of their electricity needs, and tightens exploration timelines -- reshaping the cost structure for an $8 billion+ investment pipeline.
BioMar Takes Full Ownership of Ecuador Aquafeed Unit and Plans 37% Capacity Expansion to 410,000 Tonnes
BioMar Group acquired the remaining 30% shareholding in its Ecuadorian subsidiary from the Lanec family, taking full ownership of one of the world's largest aquafeed production facilities. The company will expand capacity from 300,000 to 410,000 tonnes by Q3 2026, with a further 200,000-300,000 tonne phase planned -- a major vote of confidence in Ecuador's shrimp export engine despite US tariff headwinds.
Chevrolet Launches 2026 Captiva PHEV in Ecuador as National EV Sales Surge 159% Year-on-Year to 2,234 Units
GM Ecuador launched the 2026 Captiva PHEV at $32,999 -- its third electrified model in four months -- as Ecuador's electric vehicle market posts extraordinary growth: 2,234 fully electric units sold January-August 2025 (up 159% YoY), with hybrids adding 11,210 units (up 27.4%). BYD leads market share, but Chevrolet's aggressive pricing strategy signals intensifying competition in Latin America's fastest-growing EV market.
Sinopec Wins $105M Petroecuador Contract for Amazon Drilling Campaign Targeting 12,000 bpd Across Orellana and Sucumbios
Petroecuador awarded a $105 million drilling services contract to China's Sinopec for a multi-well campaign across Orellana and Sucumbios provinces in the Ecuadorian Amazon. The programme targets 12,000 barrels per day of incremental production and is expected to create 2,500 local jobs. The contract deepens China's growing role in Ecuador's upstream oil sector.
Canada and Ecuador Conclude Free Trade Agreement Negotiations After Six Rounds; Ratification Pending
Canada and Ecuador concluded free trade agreement negotiations in January 2025 after six rounds of talks launched in April 2024. Under the agreement, Ecuador will remove duties on 97.2% of tariff lines. The deal reflects parallel diversification strategies as both nations seek to reduce dependence on the US market amid escalating Trump-era tariffs.
Ecuador-Colombia Quito Summit Ends Without Agreement as Reciprocal 30% Tariffs Remain; Colombia Files CAN Complaint
The high-level bilateral summit in Quito on February 6 ended without agreement to lift reciprocal 30% tariffs between Ecuador and Colombia. Colombia subsequently filed a formal complaint with the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) and signalled plans to expand retaliatory measures. Both leaders face weak domestic approval as $2.8 billion in annual bilateral trade hangs in the balance.
Ecuador Reopens Mining Concession Registry After Seven-Year Freeze, Targets $4B in Annual Mining Exports
Ecuador officially reopened its mining concession registry, frozen since January 2018, in a phased process that will culminate with full metallic concession availability by early 2026. Mining exports exceeded $3 billion last year and could reach $4 billion as six large and medium-scale projects -- including CMOC's Cangrejos and SolGold's Cascabel -- prepare to begin construction over the next four years.
US Tariff Hike to 15% Costs Ecuador's Shrimp Industry an Estimated $20M Per Month as Total Burden Reaches 18.78%
The United States raised tariffs on Ecuadorian imports from a 10% baseline to 15% effective August 7, adding to existing 3.78% countervailing duties for a combined burden of 18.78% on the world's largest shrimp exporter. CNA estimates the cost at $20 million per month, yet S&P Global notes Ecuador may paradoxically benefit as India faces even steeper US tariff walls.
Ecuador Unveils $2.43B Power Expansion Plan Targeting 1,471 MW of New Capacity Across 23 Projects With Nuclear Exploration
Ecuador's Ministry of Energy published its 2025-2030 electric power expansion plan, committing $2.43 billion across 23 generation projects totalling 1,471 MW of new capacity. Solar dominates with 963 MW, while the government disclosed plans to explore small modular nuclear reactors in the medium term -- a first for the country -- as it races to close a projected 76% demand growth gap by 2034.
Colombia Sends High-Level Delegation to Quito in Bid to De-Escalate Trade War as Reciprocal 30% Tariffs Enter Second Week
Colombia dispatched a high-level delegation to Quito on February 6 for private bilateral talks aimed at resolving the escalating trade war between the two nations. The visit, authorised directly by President Petro, comes as reciprocal 30% tariffs, a 900% pipeline fee hike, and Colombia's suspension of electricity exports threaten over $3 billion in annual bilateral commerce.
Petroecuador Signs Energy Cooperation MoU With Abu Dhabi's ADNOC as Ecuador Courts Gulf Investment
Petroecuador formalised an energy cooperation framework with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) through a memorandum of understanding signed by UAE Minister Sultan Al Jaber and Ecuador's Minister Ines Manzano. While non-binding, the MoU establishes a channel for collaboration on crude purchases, technical best practices, and strategic cooperation as Petroecuador confronts declining output and an urgent need for operational modernisation.
PetroEcuador Production Falls 8.5% to 349,000 b/d as Labor Groups Warn of 'Silent Dismantling'
Ecuador's state oil company EP PetroEcuador averaged just 349,167 barrels per day in 2025, an 8.5% year-on-year decline, while public investment in the company fell 73% to $485.4 million. Labor groups have warned of a 'silent dismantling' as fuel imports reached 74.3 million barrels.
World Bank Forecasts Ecuador GDP Growth at 2% for 2026, Among Slowest in Latin America
The World Bank projects Ecuador's GDP will grow approximately 2% in 2026, broadly in line with forecasts from the IMF (2.0%), BCE (1.8%), and CEPAL (2.1%). The rate places Ecuador among the slower-growing economies in Latin America, with inflation expected at 2.8-3.2% and a projected trade surplus of $7.647 billion.
CAF and Ecuador Sign Technical Cooperation Agreement on Competitiveness at International Economic Forum
Ecuador and CAF signed a technical cooperation agreement on competitiveness policy at the II International Economic Forum in Panama City, where President Noboa outlined the country's economic stability and security strategy before 6,500 participants from 70 countries.
Ecuador Auto Sales Surge 37% in January to Best Start in Five Years as EV Share Hits 5.3%
Ecuador sold 11,342 new vehicles in January 2026, a 37% year-on-year increase and the strongest January performance in five years, according to AEADE data. Electric vehicles reached a 5.3% market share, with combined EV and hybrid sales accounting for 22.2% of the total.
Cacao Prices Retreat to $4,500/Ton but Ecuador Export Volumes Set to Surpass 600,000 Tons
Global cacao prices have fallen to approximately $4,500 per ton, down sharply from the December 2024 peak of $12,483. Despite the correction, Ecuador's export volumes are projected to exceed 600,000 tons in 2026, with the sector expected to generate over $1 billion in additional revenue.
Ecuador Returns to International Bond Markets With Record $4B Sale, Moody's Upgrades Two Notches
Ecuador sold $4 billion in new sovereign bonds on January 26 -- its first international issuance since 2019 -- drawing $18 billion in demand from over 340 investors. Moody's responded with a two-notch upgrade to Caa1, while a simultaneous $3 billion buyback will save $698 million in 2026 debt service.
Ecuador Halts All Mining in Napo Province, Restricts Operations in El Oro and Loja Over Toxic Contamination
Ecuador's Ministry of Environment suspended all mining activity in Napo province and restricted ore processing in El Oro and Loja effective February 2, citing dangerous concentrations of heavy metals and cyanide in the Calera, Amarillo, and Napo rivers. Officials warn environmental restoration will take "many years."
CONAIE Mobilises Against Noboa's Urgent Mining Reform Bill, Warns of 'Devastating' Environmental Rollback
Ecuador's largest indigenous federation CONAIE raised a formal alarm on February 4 against President Noboa's mining reform bill, submitted January 28 as an "urgent economic matter" with a 30-day legislative deadline. The government aims to boost mining exports from $3.6B to $6.8B by 2036, but CONAIE warns the bill guts environmental safeguards for paramos, forests, and water sources.
US Tariff Cut on Indian Shrimp From 50% to 18% Threatens Ecuador's Hard-Won Market Dominance
The United States' decision to cut tariffs on Indian shrimp imports from 50% to 18% poses a direct threat to Ecuador's position as the top US shrimp supplier -- a status achieved only recently after Ecuador's shrimp exports totalled $6.99 billion in 2024. CNA president Jose Antonio Camposano is pressing the government to negotiate better trade terms.
Colombia's Indefinite Electricity Suspension Costs Ecuador an Estimated $2M Per Day in Replacement Energy
Colombia indefinitely suspended electricity exports to Ecuador effective February 1, a move Bogota characterises as a "preventive measure" to protect its own energy sovereignty. Ecuador estimates the suspension forces it to source approximately $2 million per day in higher-cost replacement energy from thermal generation and spot market purchases.
Ecuador Imposes 900% Tariff Hike on SOTE Pipeline Transport of Colombian Crude
Ecuador raised the tariff for transporting Colombian crude through the state-owned SOTE pipeline from $3 to $30 per barrel -- a 900% increase affecting approximately 12,000 barrels per day of Ecopetrol production. Energy Minister Ines Manzano announced the measure as direct retaliation for Colombia's suspension of electricity exports.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Paralyses Rumichaca Border as Reciprocal 30% Tariffs Devastate $3B+ Annual Commerce
Reciprocal 30% tariffs between Ecuador and Colombia, effective February 1, have triggered a near-total collapse in cross-border trade at the Rumichaca crossing. More than 1,000 truckers staged a "March for Border Dignity" on February 4, as bilateral commerce worth over $3 billion annually grinds to a halt. High-level officials are scheduled to meet in Quito on February 6.
Banco Pichincha's Digital Unit Crosses 3 Million Users as Mobile Lending Triples
Banco Pichincha's digital banking platform has surpassed 3 million active users, with mobile-originated lending tripling to $420 million in 2025 as Ecuador's largest financial institution accelerates its technology transformation.
Ecuador Banana Sector Faces Margin Squeeze as AEBE Enters Wage Negotiations
Ecuador's banana industry, the world's largest by export volume, faces mounting pressure from labour cost increases as the Asociacion de Exportadores de Banano del Ecuador enters contentious wage negotiations amid a proposed 8% minimum hike for agricultural workers.
Guayaquil's Waterfront Sees $650mn in New Commercial Projects as Puerto Santa Ana Expands
Guayaquil's riverfront commercial district is experiencing a construction boom, with $650 million in new mixed-use projects breaking ground along the expanded Puerto Santa Ana corridor as domestic and Colombian developers bet on the city's post-pandemic recovery.
Ecuador Sovereign Bonds Rally to Post-Restructuring Highs on Fiscal Discipline Signals
Ecuador's restructured sovereign bonds have rallied sharply in early 2026, with the benchmark 2035 notes trading at 78.5 cents on the dollar -- their highest level since the 2020 debt overhaul -- as investors reward fiscal consolidation efforts.
PetroEcuador Output Holds at 480,000 b/d as SOTE Pipeline Upgrades Near Completion
PetroEcuador maintained crude oil production at approximately 480,000 barrels per day in January 2026, with the company forecasting a return to 500,000 b/d by the third quarter following completion of critical SOTE pipeline upgrades.
Ecuador's National Assembly Opens Debate on $1.4bn Tax Reform Package
Ecuador's National Assembly began formal debate on a sweeping tax reform package projected to raise $1.4 billion annually, including a new digital services tax and expanded VAT base, as the government seeks to meet IMF fiscal targets.
Ecuador's Cacao Exports Hit $1.2bn Record as Fine-Aroma Demand Surges
Ecuador's cacao exports reached a record $1.2 billion in 2025, driven by surging global demand for fine-aroma Nacional variety beans that now command an 18% premium over West African bulk cacao.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports to Asia Surge 31% as Chinese Demand Rebounds
Ecuador's shrimp exports to Asian markets surged 31% in 2025 to reach $4.6 billion, according to the Camara Nacional de Acuacultura, with China overtaking the United States as the country's single largest shrimp buyer.
Cascabel Copper-Gold Project Advances to Pre-Feasibility as SolGold Secures $180mn Tranche
SolGold's Cascabel copper-gold project in northern Ecuador has advanced to the pre-feasibility stage, supported by a freshly secured $180 million financing tranche and an updated mineral resource estimate that confirms it as one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits globally.
Ecuador's Flower Exports Poised for Record Valentine's Season as US Orders Jump 16%
Ecuador's flower industry is on track for a record Valentine's Day export season, with US-bound orders up 16% year-on-year and Quito's cargo facilities processing over 35,000 tonnes of cut flowers in January alone.